{"id":500303,"date":"2023-07-14T11:06:50","date_gmt":"2023-07-14T09:06:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/?p=500303"},"modified":"2023-07-14T11:09:17","modified_gmt":"2023-07-14T09:09:17","slug":"eskoms-big-breakdown-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/energy\/500303-eskoms-big-breakdown-problem.html","title":{"rendered":"Eskom’s big breakdown problem"},"content":{"rendered":"

Professor Anton Eberhard has shared Eskom\u2019s energy availability factor (EAF) chart from 2000 to 2023, which shows a rapid decline over the last four years.<\/p>\n

The EAF shows the percentage of time the power station was available for use when it was needed. It is a core measure of performance for any power utility.<\/p>\n

When the EAF declines, a power utility has less generation power to serve South Africa\u2019s electricity needs.<\/p>\n

In Eskom\u2019s case, its average EAF declined from 70% in 2019 to around 54% in 2023. It is so low that there is insufficient generation power to meet demand.<\/p>\n

The result is load-shedding, where the demand is artificially reduced by switching off energy distribution to certain areas.<\/p>\n

To end load-shedding, Eskom needs to significantly improve its EAF or add more generation capacity to the grid.<\/p>\n

In January, Eskom chair Mpho Makwana said they had embarked on a\u00a0turnaround journey<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0to improve plant performance and reduce load-shedding.<\/p>\n

He said it would take at least two years to improve the EAF to 70%. He set targets of 60% EAF by 31 March 2023, 65% EAF by 31 March 2024, and 70% by 31 March 2025.<\/p>\n

The government is upbeat<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0about increasing Eskom\u2019s EAF and ending load-shedding in the time frames laid out by Makwana.<\/p>\n

Earlier this month, the cabinet released a statement which welcomed the improvement in Eskom\u2019s EAF, which it said \u201cis now closer to 70%\u201d.<\/p>\n

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa also said Eskom could maintain a much lower stage of load-shedding due to the improvement of the EAF.<\/p>\n

Ramokgopa said Eskom is much closer to achieving its target of 70% EAF and that it has been consistent on an average of 60% for the past 14 days.<\/p>\n

However, the short-term improvement in Eskom\u2019s EAF, although welcome, should not be seen as a long-term trend.<\/p>\n

Energy analyst Chris Yelland said Eskom\u2019s EAF is still on a downward trend when considering the year-on-year change.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe latest Eskom week-on-week energy availability factor is nowhere near 70% and is reported officially today by Eskom as 58.31% for Week 26 of 2023,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He added Eskom\u2019s year-to-date EAF is 53.77%, down significantly from 59.35% for the same period in 2022.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe government\u2019s messaging that the energy availability factor is heading upwards and is close to 70% is just not true,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Although there has been an increase in EAF over the last few weeks, this is not strange and happens every year.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs we head into winter from summer, the energy availability factor always rises towards a peak in the middle of winter. It then declines towards the summer months,\u201d Yelland said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat we are seeing at the moment is following a similar trend with a rising EAF heading to the peak of winter.\u201d<\/p>\n

Therefore, the increased EAF is not unexpected, and the rise is still lower than last year.<\/p>\n

Eberhard echoed Yelland\u2019s view, saying as South Africa is again facing stage 6 load-shedding, it\u2019s instructive to be reminded of the long-term trend in performance.<\/p>\n

He said there are no short-term miracles with Eskom\u2019s ageing power station fleet, which are more prone to breakdowns and require increased maintenance.<\/p>\n

Eberhard shared a chart<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0of Eskom\u2019s EAF from 2000 to 2023, which shows the rapid decline over the last four years.<\/p>\n

Eskom energy availability factor<\/h2>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

This article was first published by Daily Investor<\/a><\/strong> and is republished with permission.<\/em><\/p>\n

Now read: Eskom says stage 8 load-shedding a possibility<\/a><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Professor Anton Eberhard has posted a chart tracking available capacity at Eskom over the past 23 years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341108,"featured_media":467549,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"idle","_sma_x_autopost_error":"","_sma_x_post_id":"","_sma_facebook_post_id":"","_sma_instagram_post_id":"","_sma_threads_post_id":"","_sma_x_attempts":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27995],"tags":[74166,181,35,8487],"class_list":["post-500303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-energy-availability-factor-eaf","tag-eskom","tag-headline","tag-load-shedding"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/500303"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/341108"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=500303"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/500303\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/467549"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=500303"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=500303"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=500303"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}