{"id":504076,"date":"2023-08-12T10:59:34","date_gmt":"2023-08-12T08:59:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/?p=504076"},"modified":"2023-08-12T11:00:25","modified_gmt":"2023-08-12T09:00:25","slug":"first-look-at-stage-16-load-shedding-up-to-25600mw-power-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/energy\/504076-first-look-at-stage-16-load-shedding-up-to-25600mw-power-cuts.html","title":{"rendered":"First look at stage 16 load-shedding \u2014 up to 25,600MW power cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"

The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) has published a consultation document detailing a planned revised load-shedding approach that allows for up to stage 16 power cuts.<\/p>\n

The document, NRS 048-9 Electricity Supply \u2013 Quality of Supply: Code of Practice \u2013 Load reduction practices, system restoration practices, and critical load and essential load requirements under system emergencies, <\/em>is now open for public comment.<\/p>\n

Once all consultation processes have been finished and relevant inputs considered, it will be reworked as the NRS 048-9 Code of Practice Edition 3 <\/em>and replace the current Edition 2<\/em> standing code that Eskom’s System Operator uses to define load-shedding stages.<\/p>\n

Aside from allowing higher stages of power cuts, the draft document proposes load-shedding stages enabling the System Operator to give instruction to reduce demand based on a percentage of the country’s national non-curtailment load at a given time.<\/p>\n

Under the current regime, one stage of load-shedding is supposed to equal up to a 1,000MW demand reduction, regardless of the total load at the time of its implementation.<\/p>\n

Stage 2 allows for up to a 2,000MW demand reduction; stage 3 permits up to 3,000MW, and so on.<\/p>\n

If the revision proposed in the consultation document is approved, the System Operator can demand that power distributors drop their demand by between 5% and 80%, depending on the declared load-shedding stage.<\/p>\n

At stage 1, the reduction required through load-shedding will be 5% of non-curtailed demand.<\/p>\n

For each stage of load-shedding that follows, distributors will be required to reduce their load by a further 5%.<\/p>\n

Each load-shedding stage will also determine the percentage of load Eskom’s load curtailment customers will have to cut.<\/p>\n

Unlike general users, this will be based on curtailment customers’ normal demand profile.<\/p>\n

The table below outlines the proposed reductions in load under each load-shedding stage for general and load curtailment customers.<\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Proposed demand reductions under NRS 048-9 Electricity Supply Edition 3<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Stage<\/strong><\/td>\nReduction through load-shedding<\/strong><\/td>\nReduction through load curtailment<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\n5% of demand<\/td>\n10% reduction in normal demand profile<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\n10% of demand<\/td>\n10% reduction in normal demand profile<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\n15% of demand<\/td>\n15% reduction in normal demand profile<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\n20% of demand<\/td>\n20% reduction in normal demand profile<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\n25% of demand<\/td>\n30% reduction in normal demand profile<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\n30% of demand<\/td>\n30% reduction in normal demand profile<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\n35% of demand<\/td>\n40% reduction in normal demand profile<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\n40% of demand<\/td>\n40% reduction in normal demand profile<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\n45% of demand<\/td>\n50% reduction in normal demand profile<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\n50% of demand<\/td>\n50% reduction in normal demand profile<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/td>\n55% of demand<\/td>\nReduction to essential loads or as instructed by System Operator<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12<\/td>\n60% of demand<\/td>\nReduction to essential loads or as instructed by System Operator<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13<\/td>\n65% of demand<\/td>\nReduction to essential loads or as instructed by System Operator<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14<\/td>\n70% of demand<\/td>\nReduction to essential loads or as instructed by System Operator<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/td>\n75% of demand<\/td>\nReduction to essential loads or as instructed by System Operator<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16<\/td>\n80% of demand<\/td>\nReduction to essential loads or as instructed by System Operator<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n

It remains to be seen precisely how this change will impact load-shedding schedules.<\/p>\n

It appears as though each stage under the new approach will require cutting more load than the current stages.<\/p>\n

South Africa’s winter peak demand typically ranges between 30,000MW and 32,000MW. 5% of that demand would work out to a demand reduction of 1,500\u20131,600MW.<\/p>\n

Even in the period of lowest electricity demand \u2014 during the December holidays \u2014 the effective reduction will be higher.<\/p>\n

During this time, Eskom typically sees demand hovering between 23,000MW and 24,000MW, 5% of which would work out to 1,150\u20131,200MW.<\/p>\n

This adjustment would also mean that comparing Eskom’s historical load-shedding stages to future load-shedding will become extremely challenging, if not impossible.<\/p>\n

For example, while stage 2 load-shedding previously only allowed for cutting up to 2,000MW of load, it will now mean between 2,300-3,200MW is shed, equal to the amount of power cut between stage 3 to stage 4 load-shedding.<\/p>\n

In a worst-case scenario, stage 16 load-shedding will see a reduction of between 18,400MW and 25,600MW of non-curtailed load.<\/p>\n

The table below hypothesises the load reduction under each proposed load-shedding stage.<\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Theoretical MW reductions under proposed load-shedding stages<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Stage<\/strong><\/td>\nLow demand scenario:
\n23,000-24,000MW<\/strong><\/td>\n		High demand scenario:
\n30,000-32,000MW load<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\n1,150\u20131,200MW<\/td>\n1,500\u20131,600MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\n2,300\u20132,400MW<\/td>\n3,000\u20133,200MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\n3,450\u20133,600MW<\/td>\n4,500\u20134,800MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\n4,600\u20134,800MW<\/td>\n6,000\u20136,400MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\n5,750\u20136,000MW<\/td>\n7,500\u20138,000MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\n6,900MW\u20137,200MW<\/td>\n9,000\u20139,600MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\n8,050\u20138,400MW<\/td>\n10,500\u201311,200MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\n9,200\u20139,600MW<\/td>\n12,000\u201312,800MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\n10,350\u201310,800MW<\/td>\n13,500\u201314,400MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\n11,500\u201312,000MW<\/td>\n15,000\u201316,000MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/td>\n12,650\u201313,200MW<\/td>\n16,500\u201317,600MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12<\/td>\n13,800\u201314,400MW<\/td>\n18,000\u201319,200MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13<\/td>\n14,950\u201315,600MW<\/td>\n10,725\u201320,800MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14<\/td>\n16,100\u201316,800MW<\/td>\n21,000\u201322,400MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/td>\n17,250\u201318,000MW<\/td>\n22,500\u201324,000MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16<\/td>\n18,400\u201319,200MW<\/td>\n24,000\u201325,600MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

It remains to be seen how the reductions above will translate into load-shedding schedules.<\/p>\n

Nersa has given the public and relevant stakeholders until 22 September 2023 to make submissions on the document.<\/p>\n

Comments will then be collated and considered for the final proposed code.<\/p>\n

The draft document is available on Nersa’s website<\/a><\/strong> and can also be downloaded here<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n

Now read: Eskom gets kick in the teeth over prices<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The National Energy Regulator of South Africa has published a consultation document that gives details about a planned revised load-shedding approach that allows for up to stage 16 power cuts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341042,"featured_media":504092,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27995],"tags":[181,35,8487,24740,86263],"class_list":["post-504076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-eskom","tag-headline","tag-load-shedding","tag-national-energy-regulator-of-south-africa-nersa","tag-stage-16-load-shedding"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/504076"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/341042"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=504076"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/504076\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":521817,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/504076\/revisions\/521817"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/504092"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=504076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=504076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=504076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}