{"id":525745,"date":"2024-02-20T12:31:42","date_gmt":"2024-02-20T10:31:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/?p=525745"},"modified":"2024-02-21T10:08:00","modified_gmt":"2024-02-21T08:08:00","slug":"sanlam-dumps-multichoice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/broadcasting\/525745-sanlam-dumps-multichoice.html","title":{"rendered":"Sanlam Private Wealth dumps MultiChoice"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Sanlam Private Wealth says it has sold MultiChoice out of most of its clients\u2019 portfolios due to the relatively high risk and low potential upside they see.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019ve taken a fresh look at the group\u2019s prospects, and it\u2019s not a business we would like to own over the long term,\u201d said Sanlam Private Wealth investment analyst Dumisani Chiume.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe decided to wait for the long-expected buyout offer before exiting at a price close to our own fair value,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn our view, on a risk-adjusted basis, there are currently more compelling stocks to buy into in our relatively cheap South African market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>At the time of publication, MultiChoice was trading at around R103 per share \u2014 close to the R105 per share buyout price <a href=\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/broadcasting\/523482-canal-offers-to-buy-multichoice-for-r31-7-billion.html\"><strong>Groupe Canal+ offered at the start of February<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The deal <a href=\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/broadcasting\/523818-multichoice-rejects-canals-r30-billion-takeover-offer.html\"><strong>valued MultiChoice at around R47 billion<\/strong><\/a>, and the French media giant would\u2019ve had to pay over R30 billion cash to buy the 64.99% of the company it does not yet own.<\/p>\n<p>Further explaining their position, Chiume said that just five years ago, MultiChoice had substantial competitive advantages over rivals \u2014 metaphorical moats protecting its business.<\/p>\n<p>The strongest moat was the quality of its content, including a leading local offering and sports broadcasting rights.<\/p>\n<p>However, it is starting to lose these advantages.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDStv, MultiChoice\u2019s direct broadcast satellite television service that operates in 54 countries across sub-Saharan Africa, enjoys a majority market share mainly due to its sports broadcasting rights,\u201d stated Chiume.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c[These] are key for subscriber retention.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He predicted other players would likely start giving MultiChoice a run for its money in this arena.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA case in point is the recent drama around the rights to the Africa Cup of Nations football tournament, which MultiChoice has broadcast since 1992,\u201d noted Chiume.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn January, the group declared its SuperSport pay-TV service had secured the broadcast rights to the event \u2014 a week after it had announced it would not be airing it this year after failing to secure a sublicensing agreement.\u201d<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_523326\" style=\"width: 1010px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/shutterstock_1026301258-2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-523326\" class=\"size-full wp-image-523326\" src=\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/shutterstock_1026301258-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"667\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/shutterstock_1026301258-2.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/shutterstock_1026301258-2-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/shutterstock_1026301258-2-800x533.jpg 800w, https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/shutterstock_1026301258-2-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-523326\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">DStv dishes at an apartment block. Photo by: Mary Doggett \/ Shutterstock.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Other competitive advantages once held by MultiChoice have started to unravel more aggressively.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor example, with data costs having substantially declined over the past decade, the cost of switching to competitor products is now far lower,\u201d said Chiume.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd the rival offerings are alluring \u2014 affordable mobile-only plans from Netflix and others have made it much more difficult for MultiChoice to retain subscribers.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, MultiChoice appears to be allowing sole distributor agreements to lapse.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor instance, HBO is no longer granting exclusivity to MultiChoice and is now also using Netflix to distribute its popular shows,\u201d Chiume said.<\/p>\n<p>He also said that international players like Netflix, Disney+, and Amazon Prime Video are competing aggressively on price in South Africa while offering a wide range of content.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey have also been catching up in the creation of local content, which has in the past differentiated MultiChoice from these players,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Netflix-Disney-Prime-Video-Showmax-on-Mobile-.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-503150\" src=\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Netflix-Disney-Prime-Video-Showmax-on-Mobile-.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Netflix-Disney-Prime-Video-Showmax-on-Mobile-.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Netflix-Disney-Prime-Video-Showmax-on-Mobile--600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Netflix-Disney-Prime-Video-Showmax-on-Mobile--800x533.jpg 800w, https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Netflix-Disney-Prime-Video-Showmax-on-Mobile--768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Chiume acknowledged that DStv still offers excellent local content and that MultiChoice has its Showmax streaming service, which should help it defend its market share.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHowever, the price that MultiChoice can charge is limited by the competition,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPut differently, if there is a mass migration from DStv to Showmax, this will likely come at lower margins than MultiChoice is used to.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Chiume also noted that pay TV and video streaming are not mutually exclusive.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe two mediums could conceivably coexist over the long term,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPay TV on the continent still has some runway, which is likely what has attracted the Canal+ offer.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He also said there were definite scale benefits to combining the MultiChoice subscriber base with that of French-speaking Africa\u2019s leading pay TV operator.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn fact, Canal+ has been <a href=\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/broadcasting\/370117-french-media-company-buys-stake-in-multichoice.html\"><strong>buying up shares<\/strong><\/a> in MultiChoice since 2020.\u201d<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_456587\" style=\"width: 810px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Canal-Plus-logo-on-sign-sylv1rob1-Shutterstock.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-456587\" class=\"size-full wp-image-456587\" src=\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Canal-Plus-logo-on-sign-sylv1rob1-Shutterstock.com_.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Canal-Plus-logo-on-sign-sylv1rob1-Shutterstock.com_.jpg 800w, https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Canal-Plus-logo-on-sign-sylv1rob1-Shutterstock.com_-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Canal-Plus-logo-on-sign-sylv1rob1-Shutterstock.com_-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-456587\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Canal+ logo on a sign in France. By: sylv1rob1 \/ Shutterstock.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Regardless of whether Canal+\u2019s acquisition of MultiChoice goes ahead, Chiume said DStv would likely struggle to defend its profit pool or grow it in real terms.<\/p>\n<p>He said that, in South Africa, it faces high fixed costs of the business that impacts profitability.<\/p>\n<p>Echoing commentary from MultiChoice\u2019s financial reports, Chiume said constant load-shedding has also led to subscriber losses, particularly in the Compact Plus and mid-range customer segments.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFurther afield, the tough Africa macro environment in which MultiChoice operates has created a potential share price overhang impacting the long-term investment case for the group,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn Nigeria, which accounts for nearly half of MultiChoice\u2019s non-SA revenue, the group has fallen foul of the authorities more than once, racking up huge fines in the process.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Just this month, MultiChoice announced that it had <a href=\"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/broadcasting\/524290-multichoice-settles-r63-billion-nigerian-tax-bill-for-r475-million.html\"><strong>reached a 35.4-billion naira settlement<\/strong><\/a> with the Nigerian federal government over a 1.8-trillion naira tax dispute.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of the complaint, the rand-naira exchange rate brought Nigeria\u2019s claim to around R63 billion.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of publication, the settlement was around R450 million, although it is unknown what exchange rate will be used to settle the fine. The naira\u2019s value against the rand plummeted by around 33% at the start of February.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn general, MultiChoice has seen fairly large losses from its African operations over the years,\u201d Chiume said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile management has done a reasonable job in getting these businesses to break-even levels, forex volatility and the cost of expatriating funds are likely to impact profitability over the long run.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Chiume said that the bottom line was that the slow evaporation of MultiChoice\u2019s moat impacts the price-earnings ratio you can justifiably pay for the shares.<\/p>\n<p>Although its South African operations are cash-generative, this business is now mature, and there is not much prospect of earnings growth over the short term.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAfrica outside South Africa is a very poor-quality earnings stream,\u201d Chiume stated.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cShowmax may eventually deliver a fair margin, but it comes with potential execution risks.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sanlam Private Wealth has announced that it sold most of the MultiChoice shares it held in its customers portfolios.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":525845,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[85,92499,35,475,40002,92509],"class_list":["post-525745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-broadcasting","tag-dstv","tag-dumisani-chiume","tag-headline","tag-multichoice","tag-sanlam","tag-sanlam-private-wealth"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525745"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=525745"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525745\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":525847,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525745\/revisions\/525847"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/525845"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=525745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=525745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=525745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}