The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) is predicting that global mobile subscribers are likely to reach the four billion mark before the end of this year. <\/p>\n
The ITU says that since the turn of the century, the growth of mobile cellular subscribers has been impressive, with year-on-year growth averaging 24% between 2000 and 2008. <\/p>\n
Mobile penetration in 2000 stood at just 12% and it reached the 50% mark by early 2008. By the end of 2008 the ITU estimates mobile penetration will reach 61% of the global world. <\/p>\n
"The fact that 4 billion subscribers have been registered worldwide indicates that it is technically feasible to connect the world to the benefits of ICT and that it is a viable business opportunity," said Hamadoun Touré, ITU secretary-general.<\/p>\n
While the data shows impressive growth, ITU stresses that the figures need to be carefully interpreted. Although in theory a 61 per cent penetration rate suggests that at least every second person could be using a mobile phone, this is not necessarily the case. In fact, the statistics reflect the number of subscriptions, not persons.<\/p>\n
Double counting takes place when people have multiple subscriptions. Also, operators’ methods for counting active prepaid subscribers vary and often inflate the actual number of people that use a mobile phone.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, the ITU says, some subscribers, particularly in developing countries, share their mobile phone with others.<\/p>\n