{"id":598763,"date":"2025-06-14T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-14T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/?p=598763"},"modified":"2025-06-21T07:07:25","modified_gmt":"2025-06-21T05:07:25","slug":"eskom-danger-zone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/energy\/598763-eskom-danger-zone.html","title":{"rendered":"Eskom danger zone"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Eskom\u2019s unplanned outages averaged 14,738 MW over the last week, well above its base case of 13,000 MW for the 2025 winter period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was revealed in an update on Eskom\u2019s system on Friday, 13 June 2025, in which it showed the latest performance data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom said its power system remains stable and continues to demonstrate resilience, with adequate emergency reserves in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It added that these emergency reserves are strategically deployed to support demand during the morning and evening peak periods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While there has been no load-shedding in recent weeks, Eskom is dangerously close to a breakdown threshold at which point it said it would likely have to implement load-shedding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On 5 May 2025, Eskom shared its Winter Outlook with South Africans, which covers the period from 1 May 2025 to 31 August 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outlook forecast that load shedding would not be necessary if unplanned outages remain below 13,000 MW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, if outages reach 15,000 MW, load shedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days and restricted to stage 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom\u2019s latest data showed that from 6 to 12 June 2025, unplanned outages averaged 3,114 MW higher compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is 1,738 MW above Eskom\u2019s base case of 13,000 MW, which means South Africa is in load-shedding territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the financial year to date, from 1 April 2025 to 12 June 2025, the average unplanned outages stand at 13,871 MW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF), which measures the capacity lost due to unplanned outages, stands at 29.05% for the financial year to date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This represents an increase of 1.3% compared to 27.79% recorded over the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom explained that the increase in unplanned outages is primarily driven by outage slips at its coal-fired power stations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe rise in unplanned outages is partly attributed to delays in returning units from planned maintenance amounting to 1,800 MW, including 800 MW from Medupi Unit 4 since 1 June 2025,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom\u2019s Energy Availability Factor (EAF)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Eskom set an energy availability factor (EAF) target of 70% by March 2025, which it said would mean the end of load shedding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe target is to reach a 70% EAF by March 2025, which will not only ensure a stable energy supply but also reduce diesel expenditure,\u201d Eskom said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom announced that its month-to-date energy availability factor has reached 60.56%, while the year-to-date EAF stands at 58.06%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year-to-date EAF for Eskom\u2019s power systems is a 2.92% decline compared to 60.98% recorded during the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This decrease is primarily attributed to a 1.6% increase in planned maintenance, reported as the planned capability loss factor, year-on-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom said it was making steady progress as it moved beyond the peak maintenance season at its power plants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The planned capability loss factor increased slightly from the previous week\u2019s average of 4,035 MW to 4,087 MW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, the EAF has been recovering and was fluctuating between 60% and 64% since Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom said the improvement in EAF during the month reflecting the successful return of additional generation units from planned maintenance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the financial year-to-date, planned maintenance has averaged 5,793 MW, representing 12.36% of total generation capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe plan to return a total of 3 170MW of generation capacity to service ahead of the evening peak on Tuesday, 17 June 2025, to further stabilise the grid,\u201d Eskom said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eskom data shows that it is dangerously close to exceeding a threshold for power station breakdowns that would likely result in stage 2 power cuts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":564985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"idle","_sma_x_autopost_error":"","_sma_x_post_id":"","_sma_facebook_post_id":"","_sma_instagram_post_id":"","_sma_threads_post_id":"","_sma_x_attempts":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27995,40380],"tags":[74166,181,8487,27487],"class_list":["post-598763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","category-trending","tag-energy-availability-factor-eaf","tag-eskom","tag-load-shedding","tag-medupi-power-station"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598763"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=598763"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598763\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":599590,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598763\/revisions\/599590"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/564985"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=598763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=598763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=598763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}