{"id":629992,"date":"2026-03-02T12:01:36","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T10:01:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/?p=629992"},"modified":"2026-03-02T12:03:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T10:03:16","slug":"man-who-predicted-south-africas-water-system-collapse-shares-a-devastating-message","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/science\/629992-man-who-predicted-south-africas-water-system-collapse-shares-a-devastating-message.html","title":{"rendered":"Man who predicted South Africa’s water system collapse shares a devastating message"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Anthony Turton, the man who warned about an impending water infrastructure crisis in South Africa over 17 years ago, believes that a local water system collapse is now “more or less” a certainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While working at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in 2008, Turton distributed a controversial paper to the scientific community and non-profit organisations highlighting the threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CSIR stopped Turton from delivering an address on South Africa’s water quality at a conference, taking issue with the graphic images and a poor representation of cause and effect in his presentation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It accused Turton of insubordination and of bringing the CSIR’s name into disrepute. Turton and the CSIR ultimately parted ways on amicable terms, with neither party admitting wrongdoing in the incident.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turton continued his work in the politics of water affairs for several years, including as a professor at the University of the Free State, before emigrating to Australia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turton recently provided feedback to MyBroadband amid the widespread water outages and pressure issues in Gauteng over the last few weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said the fact that so-called “soft” water restrictions like load-shifting and throttling were necessary was empirical proof that the systems are at the point of near-total collapse. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

“I am cautious of being a doomsayer, and for the last 18 years, I have tried my best to sound the alarm while not creating panic, but my professional opinion is that systemic failure is now unavoidable.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turton believes the fundamental problem contributing to the current situation is that people in power use a so-called “3D” strategy to “deny, deflect, and demonise.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“This is used by all political parties, so it is not only an ANC strategy,” he said. “By demonising the technical people who speak about these issues, it merely reduces the options for solution-seeking.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“What this does is fuel a growing trust-deficit, and it simply kicks the can down the road. This is why the slow-onset disaster we predicted in 2008 is now a reality.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Local authorities flying blind while the national government’s hands are tied<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Turton highlighted the fact that the Joburg Water system already had insufficient buffer capacity to store at least 48 hours of water in the event of upstream disruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The system has failed,” he said. It is unable to supply water of a consistent pressure, quality, and flow rate to every consumer in the network every day.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He pointed to myriad challenges he believes will make it unlikely that South Africa’s broader water crisis will be resolved in the near future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Firstly, Turton believes there has never been a root cause analysis of water challenges, leading to misdiagnosis of the underlying problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That has resulted in inappropriate solutions being applied. In addition, there is a severe lack of critical data needed on a system level, including accurate mapping.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“There is no accurate mapping at the system level,” Turton said. “Nobody actually knows exactly what pipe and pump is connected to what reservoir and tower.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“There is no functional asset management system in place at the municipal level, so nobody knows how old each piece of equipment is, or what the remaining useful life of each piece of infrastructure is.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without this data, many water system operators and municipalities cannot plan maintenance or upgrades with appropriate budget allocations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turton also argued that the Department of Water and Sanitation cannot meaningfully intervene in municipal-level crises under the\u00a0cooperative governance clause of the national constitution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Until we get clarification from the Constitutional Court on this issue, no intervention is possible without the risk of challenge on legal grounds,” Turton said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turton has reiterated that homes and businesses must invest in water backup systems. “My advice has been consistent: If you want to survive, invest in well-engineered backup systems,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The systems are failing, so emergency measures need to be rationally considered as a cost of doing business,” he said. “I cannot see how a company can survive without backup.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also believes that sectional titles must instruct managing agents and bodies corporate to invest in backup systems. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Professor Anthony Turton, the man who warned about an impending water infrastructure crisis in South Africa over 17 years ago, believes that a local water system collapse is now “more or less” a certainty.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341042,"featured_media":630008,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31750],"tags":[86667,20101,49701,39960,103302,103416],"class_list":["post-629992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science","tag-anthony-turton","tag-council-for-scientific-and-industrial-research-csir","tag-department-of-water-and-sanitation","tag-water-crisis","tag-water-shortage","tag-water-systems"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/629992"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/341042"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=629992"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/629992\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":630706,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/629992\/revisions\/630706"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/630008"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=629992"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=629992"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=629992"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}