THE NEXT MAJOR TREND in South Africa’s technology sector will be a broadband explosion over the next few years, facilitated by undersea cables such as Seacom coming on stream. It will mean faster economic growth and improved efficiencies – if this country takes the bull by the horns.<\/p>\n
Yvon le Roux, Cisco vice-president for emerging markets Africa Levant – which includes Libya, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Israel, Palestine, Cyprus and Iraq – says there’s plenty of evidence to suggest a high correlation between the effective use of information and communication technology (ICT) and economic growth.<\/p>\n
Cisco SA MD Steve Midgley says as SA becomes more efficient in the distribution and access of broadband companies and the public sector could spend more money on innovation and transformational projects and less on the cost of just getting connected. Midgley says it’s his personal view SA has a "massive opportunity" to drive more efficient business models that would help the country cope with the global financial slowdown.<\/p>\n
And as the Indians and Eastern Europeans did years ago, SA could export those new business models to other countries. Midgley says though it wouldn’t be desirable to be the lowest cost producer, the country had a number of advantages – plus an entrepreneurial business sector – and with the benefits of increased broadband capacity, it could innovate in the services market.<\/p>\n
Le Roux says governments in Africa as a whole need to be more aggressive in pushing the broadband agenda. "Otherwise it will be much slower than is needed." A government’s role is to facilitate sector deregulation, encourage the rollout of broadband infrastructure and set targets for the nation.<\/p>\n
Although SA’s Internet penetration has long been pitifully low, the past few years have seen a marked improvement in both fixed line and wireless broadband access but a sharp fall in dial-up connections.<\/p>\n
World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldstuck says there’s been significant growth in the number of broadband connections – 60% in the past year alone, to 1,3m – over the past few years. Goldstuck says SA is on the verge of an explosion in broadband access and capacity. He predicts the arrival of Seacom will gradually see bandwidth caps rising for the same price.<\/p>\n
However, growth in the actual number of users has been, and will continue to be, more steady. The total Internet user base grew by 12,5% to 5,1m in 2008. Goldstuck predicts that growth will continue for another three years: the industry expects 13,3% growth in users in 2009 and 17,6% in 2010, according to his latest research, before it drops off to single digits after 2011 and slows down significantly after 2013. Goldstuck says that will be due to almost all the possible users based on disposable income and literacy will be connected by then.<\/p>\n
This year, wireless connections overtook fixed line or ADSL connections. But ADSL remained dominant, because at least a third of 3G users used it as a back-up or out-of-office solution, Goldstuck says. However, wireless would emerge strongly as the primary form of connectivity towards year-end 2009, accounting for why Telkom has embarked on its wireless broadband strategy in addition to ADSL.<\/p>\n
Goldstuck says the next big wave in Internet connectivity will be connecting via cellphones and televisions. But these are difficult to learn to use and will come with a cost that’s going to be a deterrent.<\/p>\n
While it’s all very well getting users connected, Midgley says what’s more important is what they do once online.<\/p>\n
Goldstuck says there’s a five-year "experience curve" – meaning that users need to be online for five years or more before having the proficiency and confidence to engage actively in high-level applications such as online retail and interactive applications.<\/p>\n
Once connected, users become more efficient and effective, Goldstuck says. He expects online collaboration tools – such as video conferencing, cloud computing and software as a service – will come into their own over the next three to five years: "The Internet is a powerful collaboration platform but it’s been held back by issues of cost and capacity."<\/p>\n
Midgley concurs. He uses the example of online collaboration in the Turkish textile industry, which enabled it to become more competitive against a flood of cheap imports. Another example was using the Internet as a tool for collaborative research and development. Wikipedia, Midgley says, is yet another excellent example of online collaboration. It virtually replaced the encyclopaedia industry.<\/p>\n
Le Roux, who is based in Paris but knows SA well, says this country has changed dramatically into a visibly more prosperous environment – following a period of relatively high economic growth – that’s more willing to use technology. He said he was extremely encouraged by the recent Presidential International Advisory Council, when former President Thabo Mbeki and other Government representatives spent two entire days talking with local and international company leaders about issues about skills and other "hot topics" for the sector. That demonstrated Government was aware that such issues were important.<\/p>\n
However, some SA analysts have been less impressed with Government’s stance with regard to the sector. Goldstuck called its "managed liberalisation" policy "deeply flawed and damaging" and said Government and not only Communications Minister Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri should take responsibility for that.<\/p>\n
He says the new Cabinet has the opportunity to change that, although it hasn’t yet demonstrated it’s high on its agenda. But by the time the new government is voted in early next year the horse will already have bolted, Goldstuck says, as new licences will be issued on 19 January in terms of regulator Icasa’s timeframes.<\/p>\n
However, Le Roux says in contrast to Africa, some European countries don’t even have a communications minister, as ITC is no longer high on their agendas. But those countries have to be careful not to go backwards.<\/p>\n
The advantage African countries hold, Le Roux says, are that they don’t have legacy issues and can leapfrog.<\/p>\n
Midgley says SA’s Government has woken up to the need to get closer to its citizens and is working on having a single point of access for enquiries. Home Affairs’ "Who Am I Online" project is one example, he says. <\/p>\n