{"id":652743,"date":"2026-06-10T14:03:37","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T12:03:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/?p=652743"},"modified":"2026-06-10T14:06:33","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T12:06:33","slug":"andre-de-ruyters-prediction-about-south-africa-moving-away-from-eskom-becoming-true","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/energy\/652743-andre-de-ruyters-prediction-about-south-africa-moving-away-from-eskom-becoming-true.html","title":{"rendered":"Andr\u00e9 de Ruyter’s prediction about South Africa moving away from Eskom becoming true"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Former Eskom CEO Andr\u00e9 de Ruyter’s prediction that South Africa’s energy landscape would shift away from reliance on the power utility proved spot-on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In his book Truth to Power: My Three Years Inside Eskom<\/em>, De Ruyter argued that deregulating the energy market would prompt the private sector to add massive generation capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“While government dithers, massive capacity is being added by the private sector at no cost to Eskom or the taxpayer. The transition is happening,” De Ruyter said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Fortunately, one can already see the green shoots thanks to the deregulation of the energy market and improved grid access.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
De Ruyter pointed out that new generation projects with 2,400MW of capacity, primarily solar and wind, were registered with the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) in the first quarter of 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That compared with 1,646MW registered throughout 2022 and significantly more than the “measly” 135MW registered in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“We now have a pipeline of green power projects that could produce up to 20GW of extra capacity in the decade to come \u2014 in large measure thanks to the liberalisation of the energy market,” De Ruyter said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“I saw no reason why Eskom, with its sky-high debt levels, should build any new power generation if the private sector was primed to jump in and build it themselves.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to the latest data from NERSA, De Ruyter’s predictions proved to be highly accurate, with newly registered large private generation capacity alone exceeding 19,000MW since 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regulator registered 4,490MW of private generation capacity in 2023. The market dipped slightly in 2024 due to the initial load-shedding relief, with 4,164MW’s capacity in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the figure rebounded to 7,464MW in 2025, driven by Eskom’s continued electricity tariff hikes and a sharp drop in solar component costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since 2018, the regulator has registered just under 2,500 private generation facilities since 2018, for a combined capacity of 19,327MW. Over 19,000MW has come online since 2022. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Eskom is being replaced<\/h2>\n\n\n\nFormer Eskom CEO Andr\u00e9 de Ruyter with President Cyril Ramaphosa during a guided tour of Tutuka power station in 2022. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
A key deregulatory move and driver of the increase was President Cyril Ramaphosa’s complete removal of the requirement that private electricity generators obtain a licence from NERSA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After significant lobbying by energy experts and businesses, the government lifted the threshold for licensing from 1MW to 100MW in 2022, before scrapping it altogether in early 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since that change, only plants with capacities over 100kWp must be registered with NERSA, a much easier and cheaper process than getting licensed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is also important to note that NERSA’s registration data excludes smaller self-generating solar power systems on home and business rooftops with capacities under 100kWp. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The capacity of these systems is estimated to have increased by more than 5,000MW between 2022 and 2026. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
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