{"id":654430,"date":"2026-06-18T08:00:27","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T06:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/?p=654430"},"modified":"2026-06-19T12:05:31","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T10:05:31","slug":"bad-news-about-r4-76-diesel-price-cut-and-r2-77-petrol-price-drop-in-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/motoring\/654430-bad-news-about-r4-76-diesel-price-cut-and-r2-77-petrol-price-drop-in-south-africa.html","title":{"rendered":"Bad news about R4.76 diesel price cut and R2.77 petrol price drop in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Drivers of petrol and diesel vehicles in South Africa can be optimistic about the outlook for fuel prices in July 2026, but they will be paying far more to refuel than before the U.S.-Iran conflict began.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mid-month fuel price data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to substantial price reductions for both petrol and diesel next month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to lower international petroleum product prices over the review period between 29 May and 16 June, retail unleaded 95 and 93 petrol prices showed respective over-recoveries of R2.73 and R2.77 per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wholesale diesel prices are set for even bigger declines. The price of a litre of 50ppm diesel showed an over-recovery of R4.76.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the price reductions will be blunted by the complete return of the general fuel levy (GFL) and other fuel-linked taxes, which were reduced in the last three months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government first cut fuel taxes by R3.00 for both petrol and diesel in April 2026. The same relief was maintained for petrol in May 2026, while diesel prices received an additional R0.93 cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In June 2026, the relief was reduced by R1.50 per litre. After the new prices take effect in July 2026, the full fuel taxes will return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taking those changes into account and based on the current fuel price data, the price of a litre of unleaded 95 petrol could decrease by R1.23, while unleaded 93 petrol may drop by R1.27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The wholesale prices of 50ppm and 500ppm diesel could decrease by R2.83 and R2.47, respectively, after the R1.93 tax<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if the reductions come to fruition, the expected prices will still be far from their levels before the U.S. and Israel’s war on Iran started in late March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In March 2026, the retail price of a litre of unleaded 95 petrol was R20.19 inland, 24% lower than the expected price for July 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A litre of 50ppm was priced at R18.60, about 30% cheaper than next month’s expected price. The estimated changes in fuel prices, based on the CEF’s data through mid-June, are summarised below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fuel type<\/th>Current price<\/th>Price change before tax adjustments<\/th>GFL adjustment<\/th>Price change after adjustment<\/th>Estimated new price<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Inland <\/strong><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Unleaded 95 petrol<\/td>R28.06<\/td>-R2.73<\/td>+R1.50<\/td>-R1.23<\/td>R26.83<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Unleaded 93 petrol<\/td>R27.95<\/td>-R2.77<\/td>+R1.50<\/td>-R1.27<\/td>R26.68<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
50ppm diesel<\/td>R29.26<\/td>-R4.76<\/td>+R1.93<\/td>-R2.83<\/td>R26.43<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
500ppm diesel<\/td>R27.92<\/td>-R4.40<\/td>+R1.93<\/td>-R2.47<\/td>R25.45<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td><\/tr>
Coast<\/strong><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Unleaded 95 petrol<\/td>R27.19<\/td>-R2.73<\/td>+R1.50<\/td>-R1.23<\/td>R25.96<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Unleaded 93 petrol<\/td>R27.16<\/td>-R2.77<\/td>+R1.50<\/td>-R1.27<\/td>R25.89<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
50ppm diesel<\/td>R28.00<\/td>-R4.76<\/td>+R1.93<\/td>-R2.83<\/td>R25.17<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
500ppm diesel<\/td>R27.05<\/td>-R4.40<\/td>+R1.93<\/td>-R2.47<\/td>R24.58<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Second half of 2026 riddled with uncertainty<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media during the Easter Egg Roll on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, U.S., on Monday, 6 April, 2026. Photographer: Aaron Schwartz\/CNP\/Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Energy industry institutions and market analysts have cautioned that it will be difficult to predict fuel prices over the next few months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In its latest short-term energy forecast earlier in June, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expected the Brent Crude oil price to average at $105 per barrel in June and July 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the publication of that outlook, the U.S. announced it had reached a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran that could result in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman has been effectively blocked for shipping traffic since the war started.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That has prevented roughly a third of the world’s petroleum and oil supplies from reaching their destinations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reduced supply has increased oil prices exponentially. The benchmark for oil prices relevant to South Africa is the Brent Crude price, which surged from around $70 per barrel to well over $100 per barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the last month, the price has hovered around $90 to $95. The announcement of the MoU sent the price plunging below $80 for the first time since the war began. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reduction came amid expectations that the agreement could inject substantial oil and petroleum supply back into the market within a short period. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the deal was not final and threatened further military action against Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“If \u2060I don’t like it, we’ll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head. If I don’t like it, \u2060if they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right \u200csmack in the middle of their head.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next key moment that could influence prices will be Friday, 19 June 2026, the date on which the agreement is planned to be signed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Drivers of petrol and diesel vehicles in South Africa can be optimistic about the outlook for fuel prices in July 2026, but they will be paying far more for their top-ups than before the US-Iran conflict began. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341042,"featured_media":637534,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29366],"tags":[91413,53131,36752,82991,35045,60225,90018,21999,51719,105967],"class_list":["post-654430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-motoring","tag-brent-crude-oil","tag-central-energy-fund-cef","tag-diesel","tag-diesel-prices","tag-donald-trump","tag-fuel-prices","tag-oil-prices","tag-petrol","tag-petrol-prices","tag-us-president-donald-trump"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/654430"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/341042"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=654430"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/654430\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":654924,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/654430\/revisions\/654924"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/637534"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=654430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=654430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mybroadband.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=654430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}