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Thread: The Brexit Thread

  1. #16
    Ulysses Everett McGill OrbitalDawn's Avatar
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    Brexit could cut wages by 30% over next two decades, says private equity boss Guy Hands

    One of the most high profile names in finance has said that Brexit is going to lead to dramatic economic upheaval which will be bad for most people but good for his multi billion-pound private equity firm.

    Guy Hands, chairman of Terra Firma, one of Europe's largest private equity groups, warned that the country will have to get rid of much of its social safety net and may see a 30 per cent decline in wages in real terms in the next 20 years to enable it to compete outside of Europe.

    Debt will command higher interest rates as more risk is ascribed to an independent UK, and immigrants from Europe will be replaced with workers from the Indian subcontinent and Africa, who may be willing to accept “substantially” lower pay, he said.
    Poland to attract up to 30,000 jobs from Britain in 2017: deputy PM

    Poland estimates it will attract 25.000-30.000 new jobs from Britain this year in the sector of advanced business services, Deputy Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Monday.

    "Some time ago Poles were departing to London, but now it is the other way round - we estimate that we will attract from the British islands 25,000-30,000 new jobs in the sector of advanced services for business this year," he told news conference.
    Brexit to cost Britain more than 5% of GDP by 2030, say City economists

    Analysts from three City of London financial institutions expect the cost of Theresa May's hard Brexit to add up to between 5 per cent and 10 per cent of GDP by 2030.

    In today's money that's equivalent to between £100bn and £200bn.

    This is an estimate of the loss of GDP relative to where the economy would have been without Brexit.
    Last edited by OrbitalDawn; 23-01-2017 at 10:57 PM.
    "Poets have been mysteriously silent on the subject of cheese."

  2. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by OrbitalDawn View Post
    Brexit could cut wages by 30% over next two decades, says private equity boss Guy Hands

    Debt will command higher interest rates as more risk is ascribed to an independent UK, and immigrants from Europe will be replaced with workers from the Indian subcontinent and Africa, who may be willing to accept “substantially” lower pay, he said.

    while I think Brexit is overall a stupid idea, the notion that Eastern European workers are going to be replaced with Indian or African migrants is even more stupid.

    Firstly, there isn't going to be unrestricted immigration allowed from India or Africa and secondly, the low end of the job market is legislated and the minimum wage would prevent employers from offering this "substantially lower pay".

  3. #18
    Ulysses Everett McGill OrbitalDawn's Avatar
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    May to discuss how to boost US-UK migration with Trump, say sources

    Theresa May wants to explore how to boost US-UK migration when she meets the US president, Donald Trump, this week as part of their talks over an early trade deal, according to British government sources.

    The disclosure follows hard on the heels of the confirmation from the Australian high commissioner in London that exploratory talks have already begun on a UK-Australian free trade deal, and that greater access for Australian businesspeople to Britain will have to form part of it.

    This approach – linking any future expansion of highly skilled migration to successful trade deals with America and Australia – contrasts sharply with May’s blunt refusal during her visit to India last November to increase the number of UK visas for highly skilled Indians, despite its potential to boost the prospects of a future trade deal.

    May has yet to make clear how she sees non-European immigration policy developing after Brexit. When she became prime minister in July she rejected the leave campaign’s demands for an “Australian-style points-based system”, saying it would leave Britain without full control over who enters the UK.
    Going to be interesting to see how both countries approach this.

    Two countries have already told the UK they must relax immigration rules if they want free trade[

    Australia and India both want a better visa deal for their citizens in exchange for a post-Brexit trade deal
    "Poets have been mysteriously silent on the subject of cheese."

  4. #19

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    will the guys that have been living off unemployment subsidy actually go find work and do it.

    i knew of some who didnt want to work, they just get their few pounds per week and that was it.

    they will need to shake that culture.

  5. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by access View Post
    will the guys that have been living off unemployment subsidy actually go find work and do it.

    i knew of some who didnt want to work, they just get their few pounds per week and that was it.

    they will need to shake that culture.
    The "dole" existed before the EU, it's unlikely to change just because the UK and EU are splitting. Don't believe everything you read in the UK tabloids, living on unemployment benefits is no picnic and it's a very small percentage of people want to remain on them. Latest figures I found out the number of people on unemployment benefit at around 770k with 31.05 million in work (2015 figures).

  6. #21
    The Humble Scot! McT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arthur View Post
    Britain should exit hard and fast even if it's a crappy deal, as the EUrocraps now threaten. After quick new trade deals with USA, Canada, Australia, half the Commonwealth, and Japan they'll be in a better position than now. Call the EUrobluff - within two years of Brexit the European bluster will evaporate and they'll beg the UK to join the free trade zone.
    It seems like the way that May will take the U.K. out of the EU, or at least the way she would if left to her do.

    Quote Originally Posted by HavocXphere View Post
    Really not liking this. Means I need to guess where this is going for next career jump. Could do without that uncertainty.

    Hoping it stays in London or moves to Dublin. Frankfurt would be OK too I guess but not too keen
    Here's hoping for a soft landing for you, HX.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave123 View Post
    Pretty colouring in, but completely wrong.

    Germany can't negotiate its own deals outside the EU structure, any trade deal has to be negotiated by the EU and then ratified by all 28 members (27 after Brexit) and that agreed trade agreement is what all EU countries have to abide by.
    But if Germany starts to feel that they are being short changed inn and by the EU, I wouldn't be surprised to see them exit. Unless I have it all wrong, a Germany is the backbone of the EU right now.
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  7. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave123 View Post
    The "dole" existed before the EU, it's unlikely to change just because the UK and EU are splitting. Don't believe everything you read in the UK tabloids, living on unemployment benefits is no picnic and it's a very small percentage of people want to remain on them. Latest figures I found out the number of people on unemployment benefit at around 770k with 31.05 million in work (2015 figures).
    i didnt read it i just thought of it now when reading the polish stuff posted. this person i knew always told me how they had to do things to trick the system and get free stuff, and about the other people doing it. but yes i guess it is only a small percentage.

  8. #23
    Ulysses Everett McGill OrbitalDawn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by McT View Post
    But if Germany starts to feel that they are being short changed inn and by the EU, I wouldn't be surprised to see them exit. Unless I have it all wrong, a Germany is the backbone of the EU right now.
    Why would they, though? They benefit greatly from the EU.
    "Poets have been mysteriously silent on the subject of cheese."

  9. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by McT View Post
    Here's hoping for a soft landing for you, HX.
    Indeed. Nothing like rolling the dice with ones future...
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  10. #25

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    So the government has lost the Supreme Court case, its ruled they do not have the right to trigger Article 50 and only Parliament can do that via an Act of Parliament authorising it.

    By a majority of 8 to 3, the Supreme Court today rules that the Government cannot trigger Article 50 without an Act of Parliament authorising it to do so.

    Put briefly, our reasons are as follows. Section 2 of the 1972 Act provides that, whenever EU institutions make new laws, those new laws become part of UK law. The 1972 Act therefore makes EU law an independent source of UK law, until Parliament decides otherwise. Therefore, when the UK withdraws from the EU Treaties, a source of UK law will be cut off. Further, certain rights enjoyed by UK citizens will be changed. Therefore, the Government cannot trigger Article 50 without Parliament authorising that course.
    http://news.sky.com/story/live-pm-mu...rexit-10740738

  11. #26
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    So what now? If MPs vote nope....
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  12. #27
    Super Grandmaster The_Assimilator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yebocan View Post
    So what now? If MPs vote nope....
    Then sanity prevails - we can but hope.
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    Quote Originally Posted by konfab View Post
    As for facts, well those are technically derived from opinion as well.

  13. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by yebocan View Post
    So what now? If MPs vote nope....
    It makes for interesting times, it's not just MPs, it needs to go through the House of Lords (where it's likely to get a difficult passage) as well, if they can't get a Bill through both houses it's dead in the water till they can.

  14. #29
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    If Parly nayes prevail then Britain faces a major constitutional crisis: the people have spoken one way, and Parly another. The only option will be a general election.

  15. #30
    Super Grandmaster konfab's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yebocan View Post
    So what now? If MPs vote nope....
    Quote Originally Posted by The_Assimilator View Post
    Then sanity prevails - we can but hope.
    MPs in the UK are elected from districts. If the MPs don't vote the way their district voted, they will become easy pickings for UKIP. Labour have a serious problem in this respect.

    They will most likely choose to save their jobs and vote for article 50.

    edit: From FakeNews24:
    The need to now win the approval of lawmakers threatens her March 31 deadline for starting the divorce talks, although most colleagues say they won’t try to stop the breakup given 52 percent of voters backed it in last June’s referendum.

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