Recent content by Nicodeamus

  1. N

    Lockdown restrictions in South Africa can be extended by several weeks – Report

    its not exponential, its logistic. That is just falls.
  2. N

    Is Covid-19 just a hype?

    the WHO's treatment of Taiwan and them blatantly ignoring Taiwan's concerns in December should be criminal.
  3. N

    Is Covid-19 just a hype?

    There is going to be a lot of anti China sentiment after this and rightfully so. and I would like to point to everyone again the locking down might not be that sensible. The swedes are flatting their curve with group immunity. My view is that in January this virus was serious, but as time...
  4. N

    12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic

    Showing again, that Sweden's curve is flattening nicely without any lockdown. So yes, lockdown doesn't seem to do it, perhaps our immune system?
  5. N

    There are now 1,655 COVID-19 cases in South Africa

    SA doesn't have enough widespread data to do that yet.
  6. N

    SA bridal couple arrested for breaching lockdown

    I mean this running around and arresting 17000 people in such a short time sounds like the police is on a powertrip. It is going to create a lot unneeded anger.
  7. N

    SA bridal couple arrested for breaching lockdown

    Are these people spending time in jail? What are the consequence?
  8. N

    There are now 1,655 COVID-19 cases in South Africa

    just to show the difference between exponential and logistic growth. It is a massive difference, out by orders of magnitude. keep in mind that this is a logarithmic graph. Most of Italy would be dead by now had it been exponential.
  9. N

    There are now 1,655 COVID-19 cases in South Africa

    Our reaction is not proportionate to the danger yes and in the process we are neglecting our economy (that worries me most).
  10. N

    There are now 1,655 COVID-19 cases in South Africa

    The data shows a clear deceleration, you need to take the 2nd derivative to see that. What is misleading is that you're not looking at a logarithmic curve. Notice how the slope of the line changes where I marked? that is a sign of deceleration. Therefore it cannot be exponential.
  11. N

    There are now 1,655 COVID-19 cases in South Africa

    You don't need a journal if you've done a basic course in mathematical modelling/statistics. Here is a mathematician explaining the idealized behavior of the curve. Here is the graphs using WHO data. (ignore the liberty argument, I wish he didn't add that). Only the initial part of the...
  12. N

    There are now 1,655 COVID-19 cases in South Africa

    I am not trying to be a wise guys here. The misconception that it grows exponential is what is driving the panic. People think that it doubles every few days when in fact the rate decelerates like a ball rolling over the curve. The exponential growth is responsible for telling the UK...
  13. N

    There are now 1,655 COVID-19 cases in South Africa

    a virus doesn’t really growth exponentially, that is one misconception here. it follows a logistics growth pattern and the daily cases can be represented by a log normal distribution.
  14. N

    There are now 1,655 COVID-19 cases in South Africa

    The evidence for that is flimsy as I showed in other threads, isolation and lock-down does not really flatten the curve, its our immune system that flattens the curve. The reason being that 1/3 of the people with the virus are asymptomatic and without large scale testing they end up infecting...
  15. N

    There are now 1,655 COVID-19 cases in South Africa

    What do we do during a possible 2nd wave? Shut down the country again? The reality is that this thing needs to pull through the population so that we can build some group immunity. Complete isolation is impossible.
Top