There is going to be a lot of anti China sentiment after this and rightfully so.
and I would like to point to everyone again the locking down might not be that sensible.
The swedes are flatting their curve with group immunity.
My view is that in January this virus was serious, but as time...
just to show the difference between exponential and logistic growth.
It is a massive difference, out by orders of magnitude.
keep in mind that this is a logarithmic graph. Most of Italy would be dead by now had it been exponential.
The data shows a clear deceleration, you need to take the 2nd derivative to see that. What is misleading is that you're not looking at a logarithmic curve.
Notice how the slope of the line changes where I marked? that is a sign of deceleration. Therefore it cannot be exponential.
You don't need a journal if you've done a basic course in mathematical modelling/statistics.
Here is a mathematician explaining the idealized behavior of the curve.
Here is the graphs using WHO data. (ignore the liberty argument, I wish he didn't add that).
Only the initial part of the...
I am not trying to be a wise guys here.
The misconception that it grows exponential is what is driving the panic.
People think that it doubles every few days when in fact the rate decelerates like a ball rolling over the curve. The exponential growth is responsible for telling the UK...
The evidence for that is flimsy as I showed in other threads, isolation and lock-down does not really flatten the curve, its our immune system that flattens the curve.
The reason being that 1/3 of the people with the virus are asymptomatic and without large scale testing they end up infecting...
What do we do during a possible 2nd wave? Shut down the country again? The reality is that this thing needs to pull through the population so that we can build some group immunity. Complete isolation is impossible.