Recent content by SpiderMonkey

  1. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    Those number suggest nothing. Every country is different. You can't even hope to use the numbers from one country as a determining factor for another. The only way that you can estimate the number of actual infections is by modelling them. This guy has been one of the most accurate predictors...
  2. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    Maybe smoking already killed off the people who are susceptible to Covid.
  3. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    How would they know at this point? You have to wait to see if the people develop symptoms.
  4. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    That sounds too high. Look here (https://covid19-projections.com/south-africa). He is using mathematical modeling to approximate numbers. His range is 385k to 1.14 million at the moment. By Nov 1, he recons anywhere between 1.2 and 6 million.
  5. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    Asymptomatic or presymptomatic? There is a difference. It's know that kids don't experience many symptoms but adults can often develop symptoms later. That's one of the problems with Covid-19. Symptoms and also deaths lag. That's why it's maybe risky looking at the deaths for SA now and saying...
  6. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    New numbers out for the latest 24 hours: New Cases +10,134 Deaths +192
  7. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    A lot of the responses to this twitter post are thinking it's from the lockdown but it's unlikely that they would have gotten business even without the lockdown because international travelers are cancelling.
  8. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    That assumes a herd immunity peak. I am really hoping that SA doesn't end up like that.
  9. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    There will always be people out there that you don't know about unless you have NZ style contact tracing and testing. That means that the positive % tells you how big of an underlying problem you have. Those symptom-less people running around are just spreading things. You have to assume that...
  10. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    If they don't increase their testing dramatically, they won't be peaking any time soon. Sticking one's head in the sand is how you end up like Brazil. The government have to work out how to get more tests going ASAP because that's the only way that you know the extent of the problem.
  11. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    Which goes back to my comment. The increase in the positive result rate combined with a higher test count is very concerning.
  12. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    That doesn't match what is going on in other countries. For example, if you look at New York State, you will see that the positive result rate decreases as the number of tests increase. Not initially because they really had a bad outbreak, but the trend starts somewhere around April 4. If you...
  13. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    It also means that SA is not doing nearly enough tests.
  14. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    I am not saying that the number of infections should decrease. I am saying that the percentage of positives should decrease. If it's not then there are a lot of infections that aren't known.
  15. S

    South African Covid-19 News and Discussions 2

    Most countries see an increase in testing as part of their ramp up. That is normally combined with an increase in cases which is to be expected. Over time there is also a decrease in the % positive rate. That isn't the case with SA which means that SA has a lot of unknown infections.
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