Recent content by Stiggs

  1. Stiggs

    Stock Picks - Darlings and Dogs

    Those are the number of weeks. Since January 2015 the rand has had 62 weeks where it fell 2.6% or more against the dollar. Naspers went up in 31 of those weeks and down in the other 31, so it's basically a coin toss. For comparison, Richemont rose in 43 of the same 62 weeks.
  2. Stiggs

    Stock Picks - Darlings and Dogs

    Investors usually think that Naspers protects them from a decline in the Rand because most of its value sits in Tencent (a Chinese tech company). In reality, South Africa's stock market (and the Rand) are often impacted by global market forces, and these same forces impact Chinese companies in a...
  3. Stiggs

    Stock Picks - Darlings and Dogs

    Naspers keeps coming up as the rand hedge in people's portfolios, so I ran the numbers on it. In the 62 worst weeks for the rand since January 2015 (the rand down 2.6% or more against the dollar in the week), Naspers rose in 31 and fell in 31. Richemont rose in 43, the Top 40 in 24, FirstRand...
  4. Stiggs

    Economist warns against an interest rate increase

    Everyone agrees higher interest rates are bad for people in debt. My reply was to your argument that "the country as a whole will be the only loser" if SARB raises rates. I'm saying more people are impacted by higher inflation than higher borrowing rates. Not raising rates likely sees the Rand...
  5. Stiggs

    The Personal Development & Financial Independence Thread

    Late to this, but I ran the rule of 300 on the article's own example (R40 000 a month, R12m). At inflation + 5% it never runs out, so it holds. It does lean on that return though. "Never" needs about inflation + 4%. At + 3% the R12m lasts around 45 years, at + 2% around 34. Worth adding a local...
  6. Stiggs

    Economist warns against an interest rate increase

    A 25bp hike on a R1m bond over 20 years is about R168 a month, prime 10.50% to 10.75%. That alone breaks nobody. The catch is that SARB may not have a choice. The Fed decides tonight and is expected to hike for the first time since 2023. If we don't match it, the rand usually weakens, because...
  7. Stiggs

    Pay as little tax as possible

    PAYE is not final. It is an estimate, settled when you file, so a deduction still pays out as a refund long after the money left your payslip. The article names the options but not the size of them. R2 000 a month into an RA, 2026/27 tables: on R600k taxable income you get R8 640 back, so it...
  8. Stiggs

    Stock Picks - Darlings and Dogs

    100% agree.
  9. Stiggs

    Stock Picks - Darlings and Dogs

    Sort of a JSE dividend kings list if anyone wants one. 28 shares that have paid every year for 10+ years and never halved the payout. Longest streaks, 26+ years: BTI, FSR, HDC, NPN, SBK, SHP, SLM, TRU. Full list with yields: Best Dividend Shares in South Africa: 28 JSE Names With the Longest...
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