Load shedding or not, switching to electric cars in South Africa is just a matter of time

The Trutherizer said:
EVs are big. And getting bigger every year.
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Out of 136,218 vehicles sold in the first three months of 2022 only 1400 odd were EVs. That's only just over 1%. Why was this very basic fact left out of the article?

That essentially means that only 1% of buyers in South Africa see EVs as being worth the cost or hassle. If EVs are worth it I'd expect the sales to make up at least 20 or 30% of the total by now - it's not as if there aren't multiple options available locally.

EVs only make up 6% of vehicle sales in the USA which has a much stronger currency, bigger economy and way lower unemployment than South Africa. If the world pushes ahead with EVs I suspect we'll stick with some ICE vehicles or switch back to using donkey carts.

Toyota are going against the trend and have stated that they will still be making ICE vehicles until at least 2040. Maybe they can see past all the hype and greenie nonsense?
 
porchrat said:
We're going to end up like Cuba. 60 year old cars around everywhere.
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Even older. Modern cars has eletronic components are not so easy to find once the manufactorer stop producing them, whereas older more mechanical cars, parts can be remanufactored. I watched a guy restore a old 1970s type supercharger, by using a grinder, files, drills and aluminumium to remake the missing parts. Other people has lathes and milling machines to reproduce, but where there is a will there is a way.
 
Conack said:
LOL, no it isn't.
Solar systems are being install all over - I'm ready to charge an EV at home: for free. Why would I burn fossil fuels and have a car which requires so many parts that needs servicing?

As soon as there's a decent offering around the 300k mark then I'm in.
Ideal for zipping around town.
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It sounds reasonable. But there are the following considerations you need to resolve:

If you drive to work, when are you going to charge the car? (1). Even if the work offers charging points, who will pay for it? (2). If you charge at home, it will be very likely to be over night, so you going to drain your batterries at home. Car batteries have higher capacities than most home batteries, so huge outlay then for bigger home batteries. Then the short range, if you going to be doing longer trips, you have to include the long charging times.
 
The Trutherizer said:
Some people... lol... Having a circle jerk while reiterating the mantra of "EVs won't make it" is not going to change a thing.
EVs are big. And getting bigger every year. Here in SA we'll effectively get our collective nuts kicked in if we don't adapt with the times. Reading the article should have made that clear.
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SA has it own unique problems. How could EV replace current ICE taxis without pushback from the Taxi industry?
 
Benedict A55h0le said:
Ok it`s not completely dead yet, but is dying faster than anyone ever thought it would. It will probably be officially dead by 2030 when no ICE parts are made anymore.
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Disagree, it will be politician forced dead in the Caucasian West, but not in areas such as Japan, you should read what Toyota plans is. They think the force change to electric is too much too soon.
 
2023 said:
SA has it own unique problems. How could EV replace current ICE taxis without pushback from the Taxi industry?
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Time and time again I see people who are critical of the merits of changing to new tech seeming to suffer from a specific delusion. That somehow everything has to change at once otherwise the change is impossible. I've seen this kind of thinking come up when discussing so many topics. Notably of course - The electrification of vehicles.

For one. Why wouldn't ICE taxis be able to operate (if the owners want to) in SA for 10-20 more years (conceivably) if the bars to EV market penetration are removed? ICE cars owners in Norway, where the new car market is currently dominated by EVs, are still, and will still be able to get petrol and drive their cars for years to come. Is there something going on here in SA that absolutely requires all cars to suddenly be EVs the moment the market is opened?

And then. Why wouldn't ICE taxi owners be able to afford EVs once price parity is reached, and especially later when the second hand EV market in SA starts taking off? Most of the cost for a taxi bus is in operating costs. I think if EVs reach price parity with ICE worldwide (soon), and inevitably here as well, then taxi operators will flock to EV buses. Because they'll be able to make more money using them. Just like taxi companies everywhere in the world where EVs are widely available. If you follow the news then it's pretty hard to miss that taxi companies in the US, EU and China are buying EVs not one or two at a time, but tens of thousands at a time. And laughing all the way to the bank. School departments all over are basically just trying to figure out how to get to the point with their school bus (always expensive) fleets where they start actually saving ASAP. Not because they have to, but because once enough of their fleet is transitioned the rest of the transition starts paying for itself and after that it's pure savings. Same with municipalities and garbage trucks. Police patrol vehicles. Mine dump trucks. Cash in transit armoured cars. Parcel delivery trucks. Etc. Etc.
 
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Paul_S said:
Out of 136,218 vehicles sold in the first three months of 2022 only 1400 odd were EVs. That's only just over 1%. Why was this very basic fact left out of the article?

That essentially means that only 1% of buyers in South Africa see EVs as being worth the cost or hassle. If EVs are worth it I'd expect the sales to make up at least 20 or 30% of the total by now - it's not as if there aren't multiple options available locally.

EVs only make up 6% of vehicle sales in the USA which has a much stronger currency, bigger economy and way lower unemployment than South Africa. If the world pushes ahead with EVs I suspect we'll stick with some ICE vehicles or switch back to using donkey carts.

Toyota are going against the trend and have stated that they will still be making ICE vehicles until at least 2040. Maybe they can see past all the hype and greenie nonsense?
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Looking at it from another perspective - The SA EV market hasn't even taken off due to import costs (heavy and artificial and mostly political), and we're already hitting over 1% of new sales here. And remember - This is from sales in the luxury segment affecting statistic across all segments.

And the US... It was actually 5.8% in 2022. But ignoring that it was 3.1% in 2021 would be the height of foolishness. That's an 87% increase. That kind of growth in a year is insane. If you got 87% interest on your savings account, how soon do you think you'd be able to retire as a billionaire? A: Even starting with a meagre R10k and contributing nothing more - 20 years. That's not a long time. If you started drawing down a million bucks every year after 10 years? A: 31 Years! It's phenomenal growth. It's never have to work again in the first place kind of growth. Forget retirement.

Let alone now in 2022 when price parity with ICE has not been reached yet. Which should be 2025 by most accounts. That's just around the corner. Can you imagine how quickly people will start buying EVs then?
Finally... The US is actually lagging the rest of the world. Which approached 10% of sales in 2021. Not for long I suspect.
 
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The Trutherizer said:
Let alone now in 2022 when price parity with ICE has not been reached yet. Which should be 2025 by most accounts. That's just around the corner. Can you imagine how quickly people will start buying EVs then?
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I'll keep my eyes peeled for a decent sub R300K EV in 2025 but I highly doubt that will ever happen. R600K+ seems to be the starting price.
 
I'm not convinced. Loadshedding isn't a huge problem for charging an EV, just work around the 2h slots, it's fine. BUT what is a problem is 3 times recently where I've been completely without power for 5 days, 5 days, 8 days continuously. I'm not willing to have no transport as well as no power for such long periods.
 
1am7h30n3 said:
I'm not convinced. Loadshedding isn't a huge problem for charging an EV, just work around the 2h slots, it's fine. BUT what is a problem is 3 times recently where I've been completely without power for 5 days, 5 days, 8 days continuously. I'm not willing to have no transport as well as no power for such long periods.
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Then you go to a charging station for 30 mins.
 
wingnut771 said:
Then you go to a charging station for 30 mins.
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Yeah sure, no problem pushing your EV 20 kilometers to the nearest charging station if you live in a semi-rural area and the power goes down for a week.
I keep 20 litres of petrol in jerry cans which I rotate periodically and it only costs the price of the jerry cans which is less than R1000. How do I do that with an EV which doesn't have removable batteries? Even if I do manage to obtain an EV with swappable batteries what would it cost to keep a spare 10 or 20kWh battery pack as a backup? I'll bet a lot more than R1000.
 
Sinbad said:
Oils? How much oil do you think an EV uses in its life?
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The machinery used in mining uses them oils and so does the factories and every part of the manufacturing process. Not sure why everyone is purposefully ignoring the facts.
 
South Africans, do not fear...

hand-of-god-gives-finger-pointing.jpg


God's finger will appear from dark clouds. And push you around in your electric vehicle.
 
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