Godongwana proposes R254-billion bailout for Eskom

3WA said:
What would make you happier?

1.) Seeing Eskom start building a new nuclear/coal power station using debt
2.) No new build apart from renewables/IPP in the next twenty years

The corruption is happening, it's done, they got away with it, we're not getting the money back. We still need electricity.
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The corruption is not done, 1) will not happen and 2) is happening regardless. What would have helped is a better solar incentive, nothing else.
 
3WA said:
Fair enough, but how much is each GW worth? If you told me that SA could have R250 billion more debt and 5GW additional generation, I'd take it. Back to Stage 1, baby!
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You're not far off. Each of those stations was something like R250 billion... but Eskom has destroyed them in under a year.

Medupi and Kusile were supposed to be nearly 10GW of reliable energy. They were supposed to be the answer to loadshedding and look where we are now, stage 6 and hundreds of billions in debt. Now you want to double down?
 
porchrat said:
Medupi and Kusile were supposed to be nearly 10GW of reliable energy. They were supposed to be the answer to loadshedding and look where we are now, stage 6 and hundreds of billions in debt. Now you want to double down?
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The alternative is literally a return to the 17th century.
 
3WA said:
The alternative is literally a return to the 17th century.
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I think both options you've proposed mean a return to the 17th century.

Eskom has demonstrated conclusively twice now that it can't build or operate power stations any longer.
 
porchrat said:
I think both options you've proposed mean a return to the 17th century.

Eskom has demonstrated conclusively twice now that it can't build or operate power stations any longer.
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A debt spiral doesn't necessarily mean a return to the 17th century. It might just mean IMF/Chinese bailout.
 
3WA said:
A debt spiral doesn't necessarily mean a return to the 17th century. It might just mean IMF/Chinese bailout.
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That is true, complete financial ruin is the best case scenario for SA at this point. (before NHI and EWC)
 
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3WA said:
What would make you happier?

1.) Seeing Eskom start building a new nuclear/coal power station using debt
2.) No new build apart from renewables/IPP in the next twenty years

The corruption is happening, it's done, they got away with it, we're not getting the money back. We still need electricity.
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It's like having 2 credit cards and you're incurring debt on 1 to pay the other.
Same thing. You don't think the piggies aren't going to storm the trough once Eskom's debt is magically taken over. Well, sorry...Eskom's debt is pushed onto you...the taxpayer?
 
OhYeah84 said:
It's like having 2 credit cards and you're incurring debt on 1 to pay the other.
Same thing. You don't think the piggies aren't going to storm the trough once Eskom's debt is magically taken over. Well, sorry...Eskom's debt is pushed onto you...the taxpayer?
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If we don't spend the money on new build, they will just find another project to steal from - roads/stadiums/inflated wage bill. It's not as if not building a power station is going to prevent corruption.
 
3WA said:
A debt spiral doesn't necessarily mean a return to the 17th century. It might just mean IMF/Chinese bailout.
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The way I see it is:

1 - private generation regulations largely removed and the private sector takes over generation. That maybe works if government fscks off properly.
2 - Eskom tries to build more power stations costing possibly a R1 trillion this time and taking maybe 2 decades with the new freedom, inevitably pulls a Medupi and Kusile again, blows up the infrastructure within a year due to incompetence, and we're back to destination fscked
3 - Eskom just decays and dies with no private entities to replace it. Destination fscked.

The government can't reliably supply electricity any longer. If the last few years haven't proven that to you then nothing will.

They're just talking about relieving Eskom of a bunch of debt, but no talk of it changing any behaviour to make it profitable. There's no point in that. They're just kicking the failure can down the road a ways.
 
porchrat said:
The way I see it is:

1 - private generation regulations largely removed and the private sector takes over generation. That maybe works if government fscks off properly.
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On point 1, I would LOVE to see private sector. But, and I hope I'm wrong about what follows, I don't think the private sector will ever invest in base load stations (nuclear and fossil fuel). Too much regulation, too long lead times, too much uncertainty. Do you think differently? Do you think a private company will invest in base load?

If not, then we're left to attempt what even Germany can't afford - running the whole country on renewables.
 
3WA said:
On point 1, I would LOVE to see private sector. But, and I hope I'm wrong about what follows, I don't think the private sector will ever invest in base load stations (nuclear and fossil fuel). Too much regulation, too long lead times, too much uncertainty. Do you think differently? Do you think a private company will invest in base load?

If not, then we're left to attempt what even Germany can't afford - running the whole country on renewables.
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Private generation also includes Eskom's generating fleet being either sold off to the private sector or at the very least managed by the private sector with government getting no say in how the station is run, like the port in Maputo.

Remember my premise is that the government cannot generate power reliably. Eventually and gradually, the private sector replaces the abortion that is Eskom. At most Eskom is responsible for distribution... even that I'm not keen to see.
 
porchrat said:
Private generation also includes Eskom's generating fleet being either sold off to the private sector or at the very least managed by the private sector with government getting no say in how the station is run, like the port in Maputo.

Remember my premise is that the government cannot generate power reliably. Eventually and gradually, the private sector replaces the abortion that is Eskom. At most Eskom is responsible for distribution... even that I'm not keen to see.
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Okay, that I am 100% behind. Also put barbed wire around it, get Chinese/Indians to run it, and use the army to shoot any South African that comes within 1km of it. That'll slow down the sabotage.
 
3WA said:
If we don't spend the money on new build, they will just find another project to steal from - roads/stadiums/inflated wage bill. It's not as if not building a power station is going to prevent corruption.
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True...let them steal from something they have already stolen from, and possibly continue to do so.
Again...you have totally missed the point. This is paying Peter by taking from Paul. Peter = Eskom. Paul = YOU, the taxpayer.
So Eskom is "tax free" but the country has significantly higher debt (like he mentioned will happen!) and you're screwed either way.
Do you honestly think that Eskom is miraculously going to be investing in new generation capacity? Medupi and Kusile took how long to build? If you believe that, you're unfortunately delusional or feel the comrades really do have the country, and its citizens, best interests at heart.
 
It is just a skin game. Lets swing some swords around, while we scoop the loot. No-one is going to notice.
 
OhYeah84 said:
True...let them steal from something they have already stolen from, and possibly continue to do so.
Again...you have totally missed the point. This is paying Peter by taking from Paul. Peter = Eskom. Paul = YOU, the taxpayer.
So Eskom is "tax free" but the country has significantly higher debt (like he mentioned will happen!) and you're screwed either way.
Do you honestly think that Eskom is miraculously going to be investing in new generation capacity? Medupi and Kusile took how long to build? If you believe that, you're unfortunately delusional or feel the comrades really do have the country, and its citizens, best interests at heart.
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As I've said elsewhere, if we don't spend money on new build, we are going back to the 17th century. National debt is a better option than no electricity.
 
3WA said:
The alternative is literally a return to the 17th century.
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You are not far off.
Legitimate question: Are you an ANC supporter? Or do you just believe that what they're doing here is a logical step (moving debt from 1 area to another)?
 
3WA said:
As I've said elsewhere, if we don't spend money on new build, we are going back to the 17th century. National debt is a better option than no electricity.
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Your national debt is closing in on 80% and becoming unsustainable.
When more tax payers leave (and they are!) how do you think that's going to affect your party's bottom line to run the country?
You can only double-down so much before it starts to look foolish. You're there.
Eskom was given $8 billion late last year. Where did that go? Or was it a case of: Better spend it on whatever and not fix parts of Eskom?
 
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