US Republican lawmakers launch bill denouncing South Africa’s naval exercises with China and Russia

For us who still reside in SA, it is very important to have the US like us and invest in us. The last thing this nation needs is to be isolated by the US.
I live here still, and while it'll suck for me, I personally think that the international community *should* actually punish South Africa.

I'd personally prefer as many boots in the ANC's backside as possible, hopefully pushing them towards the door.
 
On 21 February, a new piece of legislation was introduced in the United States Congress — in the House of Representatives — by Representative John James, a Congressman from the state of Michigan, which, if passed, would make the US mandated to take a stand against South Africa.

The Bill – House Resolution 145 (referred to as HR145) — in the 118th Congress, denounces South Africa’s naval Exercise Mosi II with China and Russia. The Bill is “Opposing the Republic of South Africa’s hosting of military exercises with the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation and calling on the Biden administration to conduct a thorough review of the United States-South Africa relationship.”

“The actions of the ANC are resulting in an increasingly tense relationship with the United States. This is confirmed by the Resolution calling on the Biden Administration to ‘conduct a thorough review of the current and future status of the United States-South Africa bilateral relationship’. The DA is concerned that this resolution may also place the benefits which South Africa receives from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) at risk.

“AGOA provides duty and quota-free access to many products South Africa exports to the United States. In 2021, South African AGOA exports were valued at R2.7 billion. The agreement therefore serves as a significant boost to our local economy and a vital lifeline for many of our most vulnerable and developing industries. Worryingly, this resolution calls on the United States Government to provide Congress with a detailed account of the economic benefits South Africa derives from its inclusion in AGOA. This suggests that the United States Congress is considering the possible removal of the South Africa from the ambit of AGOA.”

Source
John James picture

1920px-Rep._John_James_official_photo%2C_118th_Congress.jpg

Times have sure changed
 
I live here still, and while it'll suck for me, I personally think that the international community *should* actually punish South Africa.

I'd personally prefer as many boots in the ANC's backside as possible, hopefully pushing them towards the door.

Not going to happen in my opinion. The West, by large, helped usher the ANC into power, and they won’t turn their backs on that. Any punitive move will only harm the ordinary citizen. You think retracting on AGOA will harm the ANC, their members?

That bill is young Republicans posturing. Further reading the OP's article,

That South Africa decided to go ahead with the exercise has caused a storm of controversy, especially as South Africa has declined some US-led exercises. “Invitations to participate in exercises Obangame Express 23 and Cutlass Express 23 were extended to South Africa,” Rear Admiral Chase Patrick, director of Maritime Headquarters at US Naval Forces Europe-Africa, at the US Sixth Fleet confirmed.

Patrick told defenceWeb, “We cannot comment on any nation’s decision to participate. However, we understand that each of our partners must balance their own long-planned schedules when considering the timing of participation. We also consciously do not put our partners in the position to choose between the United States and other nations when determining the best way to protect their territorial waters or maritime interests. Our goal remains focused on supporting African-led solutions to these transnational maritime issues.”

same stance as long held by the US, and to continue,

The introduction of HR145, shows some Republican lawmakers hold a different view, standing for their constituents.

HR145’s “document reads more like an act of desperation and act of coercion trying to redirect South Africa’s position towards Ukraine and South Africa’s position towards Russia,” said Jasmine Opperman, an independent security expert on Africa. What is more, from her perspective, the Resolution reads as though the US is trying to strong-arm South Africa. Opperman said, “Sadly, though, it’s prescriptive nature. Herein lies the problem for the United States. These resolutions will simply [have a] more firm stance by the South African government on its current position, and it will not in any way, redirect its position [to be] more inclined to what the United States wants.”

HR145 “opposes South Africa’s decision to host military exercises with the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation from February 17 to February 24, 2023; calls on the Government of South Africa to — cancel all future military exercises with the People’s Republic of China and Russia and rejoin United States-led exercises, such as the Cutlass Express; respect the United Nations charter and publicly oppose Russia’s unjustified and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine; strengthen its political resilience to reject the Chinese Communist Party’s authoritarian vision for South Africa; and maintain its national sovereignty by reducing its reliance on Chinese companies in key sectors such as information and communication technology,” amongst others.

It is unlikely that Resolution HR145 will pass, especially as it has been sponsored by junior representatives who have little influence in the House of Representatives. But, sources told Daily Maverick that the resolution shows the US believes South Africa is no longer non-aligned and has chosen Russia’s side. A new bill is expected to come before Congress to designate Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, which would have profound implications for Russia’s partners like South Africa.

now I am ascertained that the same stance is shown towards other lesser trusted nations. It is a will imposed on others to make them less dependable on Russia and China. The US has many such decrees which also apply to their own alliance partners. This is nothing new. They want to ban TikTok others must ban TikTok too, it is that simple.

However, the part that the SA state isn't neutral is true and has long been shown. The Lady R episode showed their hand, but the US still came here to engage in bilateral negotiations, and in Janet Yellen's own words, "doubled down", on their bilateral commitments, which was already supported by Biden in Ramaphosa's working visits programme to the US. The US isn't going to shoot us down, we are being wooed, irrespectively, they have interests here. Then, Europe, most recently onboarded us with their Just Energy Transition Plan. Vested interests.

What I can tell you is that the US and their partners are wooeing many nations, some already BRICS, and some BRICS candidates. Why? They want to delay China's Democratic world order 'vision'. There can only be one world order, and that is the liberal world order. The US will not allow to be threatened.

The only point in time that the West will consider taking action against SA is when they are involved in warring activities or in adhering to their adversaries (this topic being an example), but the Exercise Mosi II training exercise in my view doesn't meet the criterion since it was planned in advance and held in our territorial waters. We didn't train in Russian or Chinese waters. I don't even think we have the capacity to leave our own waters. This being said, where a state is involved there will be balance to protect interests, but where private entities are involved do expect them to be blacklisted.

It is not like the US also trade exercises. They train with Thailand, then China trains with Thailand, rinse and repeat. This is one example.



But they won't be hard on Thailand, it is territorially simply too strategically important. Woo, but this is done with many other nations.

We regularly trained with the US in their collectively held military exercises. It was only now in January that we declined to participate in Exercise Obangame Express 2023 held in Nigeria, but last year in July we exercised with them in Exercise Shared Accord held in Kwazula-Natal. I don't even think that we were invited to the Cutlass Express being held in March.

For interest, the conversation surrounding our military exercise participation is herein. Just read the Q&A,


and as can be noted, some clarity is needed, to quote,

QUESTION: Thank you so much and thank you for doing this. I really appreciate it. I just want to get like clear clarification, if you don’t mind, Rear Admiral Patrick, for me. On this issue regarding South Africa, this is really important for us to get real clear. Could you please reconfirm: for this particular exercise, was South Africa invited? Did South Africa decline to attend?

RADM PATRICK: Hey, Pearl. Hey, I appreciate your questions. I mean, to the first question, I’ll need to follow up with my staff to confirm the invitation to South Africa. I’m pretty certain that we do invite them annually, but I would need to go back and confirm that. And we can follow up through our PAO Office to get you the final response on that.

I would tell you just – just in terms of our relationship with South Africa, we’re always keen to build – to building and growing that relationship. We do make it a point to send our ship in port to that country anytime that we circumnavigate the continent. And in fact, we did have the Hershel “Woody” Williams there just – I think just this past fall, who pulled into one of the ports there, and that’s not the first time we’ve done that. So any opportunity we get to actually exercise with our partners in South Africa, we do seek that.

which explains some parts within the Bill.
 
Not going to happen in my opinion. The West, by large, helped usher the ANC into power, and they won’t turn their backs on that. Any punitive move will only harm the ordinary citizen. You think retracting on AGOA will harm the ANC, their members?

That bill is young Republicans posturing. Further reading the OP's article,



same stance as long held by the US, and to continue,



now I am ascertained that the same stance is shown towards other lesser trusted nations. It is a will imposed on others to make them less dependable on Russia and China. The US has many such decrees which also apply to their own alliance partners. This is nothing new. They want to ban TikTok others must ban TikTok too, it is that simple.

However, the part that the SA state isn't neutral is true and has long been shown. The Lady R episode showed their hand, but the US still came here to engage in bilateral negotiations, and in Janet Yellen's own words, "doubled down", on their bilateral commitments, which was already supported by Biden in Ramaphosa's working visits programme to the US. The US isn't going to shoot us down, we are being wooed, irrespectively, they have interests here. Then, Europe, most recently onboarded us with their Just Energy Transition Plan. Vested interests.

What I can tell you is that the US and their partners are wooeing many nations, some already BRICS, and some BRICS candidates. Why? They want to delay China's Democratic world order 'vision'. There can only be one world order, and that is the liberal world order. The US will not allow to be threatened.

The only point in time that the West will consider taking action against SA is when they are involved in warring activities or in adhering to their adversaries (this topic being an example), but the Exercise Mosi II training exercise in my view doesn't meet the criterion since it was planned in advance and held in our territorial waters. We didn't train in Russian or Chinese waters. I don't even think we have the capacity to leave our own waters. This being said, where a state is involved there will be balance to protect interests, but where private entities are involved do expect them to be blacklisted.

It is not like the US also trade exercises. They train with Thailand, then China trains with Thailand, rinse and repeat. This is one example.



But they won't be hard on Thailand, it is territorially simply too strategically important. Woo, but this is done with many other nations.

We regularly trained with the US in their collectively held military exercises. It was only now in January that we declined to participate in Exercise Obangame Express 2023 held in Nigeria, but last year in July we exercised with them in Exercise Shared Accord held in Kwazula-Natal. I don't even think that we were invited to the Cutlass Express being held in March.

For interest, the conversation surrounding our military exercise participation is herein. Just read the Q&A,


and as can be noted, some clarity is needed, to quote,



which explains some parts within the Bill.

I strongly disagree. When the time comes SA will have to choose wisely. Obviously the help SA has given Russia is pitiful at this stage but if SA is able to offer something substantial or it causes significant detriment to the western efforts to consolidate Europe to be able to focus on China, then yes the Yanks will hammer SA.

What you're trying to say above, is that America is using soft power. Yes they do that first. And if someone causes significant detriment to them, they punish them. Note how Germany was made to like the fact that Russia is not open for business. They will also be made to not like doing so much business with China too. That Biden did not meet with Makron or Scholz is a signal to both Berlin and Paris. And those are top allies and strategic partners.

This bill may just be a friendly reminder or what is possible. If the carrot does not work, then the stick. But the ANC should not tempt fate. First, because Russia can't help SA. Russia can't help itself. Secondly because angering America is not a good idea, because one should not anger one's top partners in exchange for nothing.
 
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I strongly disagree. When the time comes SA will have to choose wisely. Obviously the help SA has given Russia is pitiful at this stage but if SA is able to offer something substantial or it causes significant detriment to the western efforts to consolidate Europe to be able to focus on China, then yes the Yanks will hammer SA.

What you're trying to say above, is that America is using soft power. Yes they do that first. And if someone causes significant detriment to them, they punish them. Note how Germany was made to like the fact that Russia is not open for business. They will also be made to not like doing so much business with China too. That Biden did not meet with Makron or Scholz is a signal to both Berlin and Paris. And those are top allies and strategic partners.

This bill may just be a friendly reminder or what is possible. If the carrot does not work, then the stick. But the ANC should not tempt fate. First, because Russia can't help SA. Russia can't help itself. Secondly because angering America is not a good idea, because one should not anger one's top partners in exchange for nothing.

I am sure that the US is disappointed in us, but I still don't see them isolate us. Threatening AGOA is not a threat to the ANC, but a threat made to the people who do business and reside within SA, and that is what the bill is all about, to apply pressure on the SA economy, but it is grossly misdirected.

Neither is the bill concerning the ANC, it is concerning the DA.


DA to request meeting with USA ambassador on AGOA agreement​

The DA is deeply concerned about resolution HR145 being brought before the United States House of Representatives in reaction to the ANC government’s implied alignment with Russian interests.

This is a result of the South African government’s decision to hold joint military exercises with the Russian Federation and its refusal to condemn Russia’s unjustified and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in the UN General Assembly.

The actions of the ANC are resulting in an increasingly tense relationship with the United States. This is confirmed by the Resolution calling on the Biden Administration to “conduct a thorough review of the current and future status of the United States-South Africa bilateral relationship …” The DA is concerned that this resolution may also place the benefits which South Africa receives from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) at risk.

AGOA provides duty and quota-free access to many products South Africa exports to the United States. In 2021, South African AGOA exports were valued at R2,7 billion. The agreement therefore serves as a significant boost to our local economy and a vital lifeline for many of our most vulnerable and developing industries. Worryingly, this resolution calls on the United States Government to provide Congress with a detailed account of the economic benefits South Africa derives from its inclusion in AGOA. This suggests that the United States Congress is considering the possible removal of the South Africa from the ambit of AGOA.

The DA will be requesting a meeting with the United States Ambassador to the Republic of South Africa to discuss the implications and likelihood of South Africa being removed from the AGOA agreement. We will also be seeking clarity on the actions we can take to help prevent South Africa from being excluded from the benefits of AGOA.

It is clear that the ANC is more concerned with maintaining good relations with Russia than doing what is in the best interests of the South African people and international relations generally. As a result, the DA will be doing everything in our power to prevent the further decimation of the South African economy at the hands of outdated ANC ideology.

All the ANC has to do is to look towards BRICS, redirecting AGOA-destined interests to BRICS-aligned destinations. Think, again, who these young republicans are reminding with their bill. The ANC is getting exactly what they want. There is nothing Russia and China like more than dissenting discourse between the Republicans and Democrats.

Are we on the wrong side, well, that depends on perspective. Do I think that we are on the wrong side, yes, but that is also not how the ANC sees it, whom we democratically voted into power.

The only change here can be brought upon at the general elections, and this is where I may have a problem with the bill as it could strengthen the ANC at the elections, but do wake me up when we are being sanctioned by the US, and I am talking state and state-owned sanctions, not private sanctions. I will be in the heathens the day the US sanctions those involved in sabotaging Eskom or more aptly the economy.
 
I am sure that the US is disappointed in us, but I still don't see them isolate us. Threatening AGOA is not a threat to the ANC, but a threat made to the people who do business and reside within SA, and that is what the bill is all about, to apply pressure on the SA economy, but it is grossly misdirected.

Hence they're using soft power and hinting at what can be done.

Neither is the bill concerning the ANC, it is concerning the DA.




All the ANC has to do is to look towards BRICS, redirecting AGOA-destined interests to BRICS-aligned destinations. Think, again, who these young republicans are reminding with their bill. The ANC is getting exactly what they want. There is nothing Russia and China like more than dissenting discourse between the Republicans and Democrats.

Russia and China can't help SA.

The Yanks are showing how powerful Russia is - i.e. not powerful at all - and once Europe is consolidated decoupling from China will continue.
 
Hence they're using soft power and hinting at what can be done.

What are they doing, how is their power used in this instance?

Russia and China can't help SA.

The Yanks are showing how powerful Russia is - i.e. not powerful at all - and once Europe is consolidated decoupling from China will continue.

BRICS isn't limited to Russia and China. There is interest in expanding BRICS, and this doesn't even include the nations who have interest in or doing business with the New Development Bank.
 
What are they doing, how is their power used in this instance?

As you say they are entering (and have entered) into various business partnerships.

My take and I could be wrong but this issue is important for America, more important than SA, is that they don't consider what SA is doing and maybe what SA is capable of doing, as significant enough to help Russia. But they may still hammer SA more gently and subtly to drive the message in such a way that the leadership of the ANC understand things.

What issue? For years the Russians with the Chinese have sought to undermine the West. Ukraine presented itself as a way of 1. weakening Russia and humiliating it. 2. Driving it out of Europe where Russia was breaking up the American hold on Europe. 3. Russia chose the Chinese, long ago. Hence Europe needs to be consolidated and once that happens US can focus most of her attention on China. In fact the Ukrainians in fighting for their freedom and winning, are able to do this for America ON THE CHEAP.

On the other hand I don't buy Russian - Chinese friendship. The Chinese don't consider Russians as Asian and the Russians don't consider themselves Asian. It's gonna be junior partner Russia with sugar daddy China. BUT pushed out of Europe and without German money going to Russia and soon less of it going to China as well.

BRICS isn't limited to Russia and China. There is interest in expanding BRICS, and this doesn't even include the nations who have interest in or doing business with the New Development Bank.

Expanding the BRICS. OK so what magic will other members of BRICS give SA? That SA can't get NOW?

Because NOBODY from the developing world will save SA.
 
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As you say they are entering (and have entered) into various business partnerships.

My take and I could be wrong but this issue is important for America, more important than SA, is that they don't consider what SA is doing and maybe what SA is capable of doing, as significant enough to help Russia. But they may still hammer SA more gently and subtly to drive the message in such a way that the leadership of the ANC understand things.

What issue? For years the Russians with the Chinese have sought to undermine the West. Ukraine presented itself as a way of 1. weakening Russia and humiliating it. 2. Driving it out of Europe where Russia was breaking up the American hold on Europe. 3. Russia chose the Chinese, long ago. Hence Europe needs to be consolidated and once that happens US can focus most of her attention on China. In fact the Ukrainians in fighting for their freedom and winning, are able to do this for America ON THE CHEAP.

On the other hand I don't buy Russian - Chinese friendship. The Chinese don't consider Russians as Asian and the Russians don't consider themselves Asian. It's gonna be junior partner Russia with sugar daddy China. BUT pushed out of Europe and without German money going to Russia and soon less of it going to China as well.



Expanding the BRICS. OK so what magic will other members of BRICS give SA? That SA can't get NOW?

Because NOBODY from the developing world will save SA.
USA is a weakening global power. Their sneaky tactics are laid bare by their very own professors and top military. This department of the yanks is astonishing..... their freedom of speech.
 
USA is a weakening global power. Their sneaky tactics are laid bare by their very own professors and top military. This department of the yanks is astonishing..... their freedom of speech.
You think that the USA is weakening... they're not the only ones. China and Russia are undoing themselves faster.

It's my personal opinion that the USA, for all their challenges, will prove a lot more robust in the next 10 to 15 years than China and Russia.
 
You think that the USA is weakening... they're not the only ones. China and Russia are undoing themselves faster.

It's my personal opinion that the USA, for all their challenges, will prove a lot more robust in the next 10 to 15 years than China and Russia.
China has built more than 40000km of speed trains.
Here is the first bullet train between LA and San Francisco:-
Fourteen years later, construction is now underway on part of a 171-mile “starter” line connecting a few cities in the middle of California, which has been promised for 2030. But few expect it to make that goal.
Just do a study on this and tell me more about your opinion.
 
China has built more than 40000km of speed trains.
Here is the first bullet train between LA and San Francisco:-
Fourteen years later, construction is now underway on part of a 171-mile “starter” line connecting a few cities in the middle of California, which has been promised for 2030. But few expect it to make that goal.
Just do a study on this and tell me more about your opinion.

Two words: aging population.

USA:

China:

Look particularly at the projected population for the next 30-40 years for China. It's crashing and it's crashing hard. That kind of shift is not great for a country's economy or stability in general.


To an extent, this can be alleviated by immigration of hopeful younger people to keep the economy going.
Tell me something.
Between USA and China, which country does that better?
 
Two words: aging population.

USA:

China:

Look particularly at the projected population for the next 30-40 years for China. It's crashing and it's crashing hard. That kind of shift is not great for a country's economy or stability in general.


To an extent, this can be alleviated by immigration of hopeful younger people to keep the economy going.
Tell me something.
Between USA and China, which country does that better?
The USA cannot build one bullet train and you hand me a population projection.
 
The USA cannot build one bullet train and you hand me a population projection.
Bullet trains are all good and well, but it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. They have vastly different politics and societal norms in the USA vs China. In the USA there's a process to follow for building that sort of thing, and possibly not everyone wants it, so the question of whether or not you can build it becomes moot. In China, if someone high up decides that it should be built, it's getting built whether you want it or not.

There are other similarly less-than-useful comparisons that I can make which come out in the USA's favour.
For example, China makes lots of electronics. But who makes the tools that let those electronics get built? USA. Who makes the software? USA.

Ultimately a country is made up of people, not bullet trains. Historically when there's been a population collapse, as is projected in China over the next several years, it's also been a time of big instability. And there's never been one on that scale before (except maybe Europe during the Black Plague) so we have no idea what to expect. The USA on the other hand, for all their challenges, have a fairly robust system and I think it's likely to be more stable.
 
The USA cannot build one bullet train and you hand me a population projection.
In 2011, a high-speed bullet train crashed near the south-eastern city of Wenzhou in Zhejiang province, killing 40 people. The Chinese government later admitted that the crash was caused by design flaws and sloppy management.

Many Chinese accused the government of prioritizing development and profit over safety as a result of the crash. It also sparked a surge of public outrage towards officials who were suspected of attempting to conceal the crash’s severity and causes.

After officials allegedly muzzled media coverage and ordered reporters to focus on rescue efforts but internet users slammed the government’s response to the disaster.
https://eurasiantimes.com/chinas-bullet-train-crashes-brings-back-memories-of-2011-accident/#:~:text=In 2011, a high-speed,design flaws and sloppy management.

US could easily get high speed rail once the federal government gets out of the business of rail.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amtrak

In fact getting the government out of both road and rail would completely invigorate the rail industry because of basic physics.
 
Bullet trains are all good and well, but it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. They have vastly different politics and societal norms in the USA vs China. In the USA there's a process to follow for building that sort of thing, and possibly not everyone wants it, so the question of whether or not you can build it becomes moot. In China, if someone high up decides that it should be built, it's getting built whether you want it or not.

There are other similarly less-than-useful comparisons that I can make which come out in the USA's favour.
For example, China makes lots of electronics. But who makes the tools that let those electronics get built? USA. Who makes the software? USA.

Ultimately a country is made up of people, not bullet trains. Historically when there's been a population collapse, as is projected in China over the next several years, it's also been a time of big instability. And there's never been one on that scale before (except maybe Europe during the Black Plague) so we have no idea what to expect. The USA on the other hand, for all their challenges, have a fairly robust system and I think it's likely to be more stable.
A lot of it is down to an appetite for public transport. I have no doubt that USA could build bullet trains if the public really wanted them.
 
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