Not going to happen in my opinion. The West, by large, helped usher the ANC into power, and they won’t turn their backs on that. Any punitive move will only harm the ordinary citizen. You think retracting on AGOA will harm the ANC, their members?
That bill is young Republicans posturing. Further reading the OP's article,
same stance as long held by the US, and to continue,
now I am ascertained that the same stance is shown towards other lesser trusted nations. It is a will imposed on others to make them less dependable on Russia and China. The US has many such decrees which also apply to their own alliance partners. This is nothing new. They want to ban TikTok others must ban TikTok too, it is that simple.
However, the part that the SA state isn't neutral is true and has long been shown. The Lady R episode showed their hand, but the US still came here to engage in bilateral negotiations, and in Janet Yellen's own words, "doubled down", on their bilateral commitments, which was already supported by Biden in Ramaphosa's working visits programme to the US. The US isn't going to shoot us down, we are being wooed, irrespectively, they have interests here. Then, Europe, most recently onboarded us with their Just Energy Transition Plan. Vested interests.
What I can tell you is that the US and their partners are wooeing many nations, some already BRICS, and some BRICS candidates. Why? They want to delay China's Democratic world order 'vision'. There can only be one world order, and that is the liberal world order. The US will not allow to be threatened.
The only point in time that the West will consider taking action against SA is when they are involved in warring activities or in adhering to their adversaries (this topic being an example), but the Exercise Mosi II training exercise in my view doesn't meet the criterion since it was planned in advance and held in our territorial waters. We didn't train in Russian or Chinese waters. I don't even think we have the capacity to leave our own waters. This being said, where a state is involved there will be balance to protect interests, but where private entities are involved do expect them to be blacklisted.
It is not like the US also trade exercises. They train with Thailand, then China trains with Thailand, rinse and repeat. This is one example.
Thailand and the United States kicked off on Tuesday military exercises involving more than 7,000 personnel and forces from 30 countries, with the annual drills including a component focused on space exercises for the first time.
www.reuters.com
An annual joint fighter jets exercise between Thailand and China will resume later this month after being put on hold for two years during the pandemic, the Thai air force said, with a former U.S. air base chosen to host the event.
www.reuters.com
But they won't be hard on Thailand, it is territorially simply too strategically important. Woo, but this is done with many other nations.
We regularly trained with the US in their collectively held military exercises. It was only now in January that we declined to participate in Exercise Obangame Express 2023 held in Nigeria, but last year in July we exercised with them in Exercise Shared Accord held in Kwazula-Natal. I don't even think that we were invited to the Cutlass Express being held in March.
For interest, the conversation surrounding our military exercise participation is herein. Just read the Q&A,
and as can be noted, some clarity is needed, to quote,
which explains some parts within the Bill.