De Ruyter warns that South Africa rapidly approaches another electricity cliff and will be plunged back into load-shedding

[mylesillidge]

André de Ruyter's new warning about Eskom

Former Eskom CEO André de Ruyter has warned that South Africa is rapidly approaching another electricity cliff and will be plunged back into load-shedding unless new power stations are urgently built.

De Ruyter was responding to a question at an event organised by Oxford University's Saïd Business School, where the interviewer asked about analysts predicting the return of load-shedding by 2029.

 

[RaptorSA]

"unless new power stations are urgently built"

No, please don't
Don't build anything, don't touch anything, don't make any plans, don't come up with any mitigations, don't hold any more inquiries

Just f**k off and continue your slow decline into irrelevance... we'll figure it the hell out as we go.
I doubt there's a single dismal scenario where Eskom doing anything meaningful about this problem is not the worst case.

 

[Lupus]

Consultant at renewables firm says Eskom need to go renewables...

André de Ruyter’s new job is taking on Eskom

De Ruyter’s new role is in consulting for renewable energy projects and financing — a job which could see him helping private firms cut away at Eskom’s customer base.

mybroadband.co.za

Good thing he's no longer the CEO to keep trying to push for renewables as we'd still be load shedding.

 

[Smiggles]

 

[zll]

Consultant at renewables firm says Eskom need to go renewables...

André de Ruyter’s new job is taking on Eskom

De Ruyter’s new role is in consulting for renewable energy projects and financing — a job which could see him helping private firms cut away at Eskom’s customer base.

mybroadband.co.za

Good thing he's no longer the CEO to keep trying to push for renewables as we'd still be load shedding.

And you've been anti-renewable because "they can't provide base load" even though battery solutions are appearing that allow you to do just that.

And the simple fact is he's not wrong on his criticisms of every other technology. With the current govt you need to assume 10+ years for a coal power station, and we all know nuclear is an insanely long time to get up and running. We are already having gas issues because we import it so why would we want to build power stations that use gas?

Private sector can get renewables with battery storage up at running in 18 months at a competitive price. Why not use it?

Or let me put it this way, considering our current reality, what tech would you propose we use that we can get up and running in 5 years?

 

[RaptorSA]

Consultant at renewables firm says Eskom need to go renewables...

André de Ruyter’s new job is taking on Eskom

De Ruyter’s new role is in consulting for renewable energy projects and financing — a job which could see him helping private firms cut away at Eskom’s customer base.

mybroadband.co.za

Good thing he's no longer the CEO to keep trying to push for renewables as we'd still be load shedding.

And yet, we're currently not load shedding because of renewables.
Their words not mine.

 

[Lupus]

And you've been anti-renewable because "they can't provide base load" even though battery solutions are appearing that allow you to do just that.

And the simple fact is he's not wrong on his criticisms of every other technology. With the current govt you need to assume 10+ years for a coal power station, and we all know nuclear is an insanely long time to get up and running. We are already having gas issues because we import it so why would we want to build power stations that use gas?

Private sector can get renewables with battery storage up at running in 18 months at a competitive price. Why not use it?

Or let me put it this way, considering our current reality, what tech would you propose we use that we can get up and running in 5 years?

You sir are incorrect, I am not anti-renewable. Renewables are great for small scale and even possibly micro-grids. But on a country wide basis they are just not there yet, when renewables can actually run without proper base load sure.
But even right now they are expensive and Andre's push at the time we had the worst LS wasn't the right time for his agenda.

 

[Lupus]

And yet, we're currently not load shedding because of renewables.
Their words not mine.

That is incorrect, we're currently not loadshedding due to the fact that the power stations are running at over 60% EAF.

See the green part? That is the good part it being that high means we're not loadshedding. Renewables have very little to do with this.
Renewables also by the way had little effect on bringing down demand as the "reports" say and generally those who say it are also renewable consultants.

 

[RaptorSA]

That is incorrect, we're currently not loadshedding due to the fact that the power stations are running at over 60% EAF.
View attachment 1894125
See the green part? That is the good part it being that high means we're not loadshedding. Renewables have very little to do with this.
Renewables also by the way had little effect on bringing down demand as the "reports" say and generally those who say it are also renewable consultants.

You mentioned what I would consider to be the most pivotal thing we must do: micro grids.
To do that, Eskom, NERSA, Government, Municipalities etc. needs to get out of the way.

Point is, it'll ultimately all come down to cost, even if Eskom is the most logical consideration for base load they will continue to f**k this up to the point where we'll look back and say: "We could have rather just... <insert espensive alternative>"
Medupi couldn't be a better example of that.

 

[Lupus]

You mentioned what I would consider to be the most pivotal thing we must do: micro grids.
To do that, Eskom needs to get out of the way.

Yeah but micro grids would need to be on a suburb or region basis. It would kinda harken back to when municipalities had their own power stations.
Issue is that heavy industry would still need to rely on the grid.

 

[Mike Hoxbig]

Seems like he recently renewed his MyBB publicity subscription...

 

[zll]

You sir are incorrect, I am not anti-renewable. Renewables are great for small scale and even possibly micro-grids. But on a country wide basis they are just not there yet, when renewables can actually run without proper base load sure.
But even right now they are expensive and Andre's push at the time we had the worst LS wasn't the right time for his agenda.

Okay, let's run with this reasoning.

So what is your solution considering all the problems with other tech?

 

[Lupus]

@denmendez65 do these people who keep saying we're not loadshedding cause of renewables actually check numbers or just believe the hype?

 

[Lupus]

Okay, let's run with this reasoning.

So what is your solution considering all the problems with other tech?

The sooner you start building power stations, the quicker we don't have a problem. Plus the biggest problem with things like nuclear is perception. Apparently a football field of nuclear waste in 80 years is a bad thing, plus it's highly regulated unlike coal, solar and wind.
We need power stations, at this point we need fast and reliable, renewables is fast, reliable it is not and cheap for consumers it is not.
Could try getting more people off the grid.

 

[Cius]

Consultant at renewables firm says Eskom need to go renewables...

André de Ruyter’s new job is taking on Eskom

De Ruyter’s new role is in consulting for renewable energy projects and financing — a job which could see him helping private firms cut away at Eskom’s customer base.

mybroadband.co.za

Good thing he's no longer the CEO to keep trying to push for renewables as we'd still be load shedding.

Are you willfully ignorant, or do you perhaps wear a MAGA hat and drink the idiotic Trump cool aid?

Tell your opinion to Spain. They are the only EU country keeping energy prices low due to their big push for renewables.

Decoupled꞉ how Spain cut the link between gas and power prices using renewables | Ember

Spain has some of the lowest wholesale electricity prices in Europe, largely owing to the country’s strong solar and wind growth which reduced the influence of expensive coal and gas power on the electricity market.

ember-energy.org

Spain's power is currently 32% cheaper than the EU average due to cheaper renewable. Their energy price is decoupled from the price of fossil fuels more than any other EU power.

The cost of renewable power has been dropping steadily for decades. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-plummeting-cost-of-renewable-energy/

Not sure if you can read but I will point out the cost of wind and solar is down between 62 and 75% since 2014 and it continues to drop. The writing is on the wall and the future is renewable. Still some technical problems to solve, and yes base load is a thing when the sun is not shining but when a country like Spain is already 32% cheaper than the Gas powered EU due to renewable the argument is largely over. Any country not moving in that direction is gonna be left behind. Fortunately for SA private is implementing renewable at an incredible rate and Eskom is in a death spiral anyways, so we are on the green path regardless just not via government. Most major industrial players are planning their own power going forward as its now cheaper than buying from Eskom (the definition of imminent death for a power utility). At some point the government will be privatize Eskom like they did Telkom and very quickly after that people that are actually numerate will quickly implement renewable base load backed by a few of the more reliable coal plants, Eskom's pump storage, and some OCGT's for backup when the renewables are in their low cycles of production.

 

[zll]

Yeah but micro grids would need to be on a suburb or region basis. It would kinda harken back to when municipalities had their own power stations.
Issue is that heavy industry would still need to rely on the grid.

I realised this didn't sit well with me logically. We already see some degree of regional power management across the grid.

For example, city of Cape town is able to deal with one or two stages of load shedding with steenbras just for their customers, even when people on Eskom just a few Kms away have to deal with the full brunt of load shedding. This essentially makes it a microgrid, or at very least a grid within a grid.

So I looked it up, and yup, microgrids can work as part of a national grid.

Microgrids can work in conjunction with more traditional large-scale power grids, known as macrogrids, which are anchored by major power plants.

What Is a Microgrid? | IBM

Microgrids are small-scale power grids that operate independently to generate electricity for a localized area, such as a university, hospital or community.

www.ibm.com

 

[Lupus]

Are you willfully ignorant, or do you perhaps wear a MAGA hat and drink the idiotic Trump cool aid?

Tell your opinion to Spain. They are the only EU country keeping energy prices low due to their big push for renewables.

Decoupled꞉ how Spain cut the link between gas and power prices using renewables | Ember

Spain has some of the lowest wholesale electricity prices in Europe, largely owing to the country’s strong solar and wind growth which reduced the influence of expensive coal and gas power on the electricity market.

ember-energy.org

Spain's power is currently 32% cheaper than the EU average due to cheaper renewable. Their energy price is decoupled from the price of fossil fuels more than any other EU power.

The cost of renewable power has been dropping steadily for decades. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-plummeting-cost-of-renewable-energy/

Not sure if you can read but I will point out the cost of wind and solar is down between 62 and 75% since 2014 and it continues to drop. The writing is on the wall and the future is renewable. Still some technical problems to solve, and yes base load is a thing when the sun is not shining but when a country like Spain is already 32% cheaper than the Gas powered EU due to renewable the argument is largely over. Any country not moving in that direction is gonna be left behind. Fortunately for SA private is implementing renewable at an incredible rate and Eskom is in a death spiral anyways, so we are on the green path regardless just not via government. Most major industrial players are planning their own power going forward as its now cheaper than buying from Eskom (the definition of imminent death for a power utility). At some point the government will be privatize Eskom like they did Telkom and very quickly after that people that are actually numerate will quickly implement renewable base load backed by a few of the more reliable coal plants, Eskom's pump storage, and some OCGT's for backup when the renewables are in their low cycles of production.

Spain? The country that had a massive power failure due to renewables? Also keeping prices low?

Why are electricity bills in Spain among the most expensive in Europe? | Sur in English

They have shot up by almost 17% in a year, to an average of 84 euros per household per month, some 12.64 euros more than in 2024

www.surinenglish.com

Electric shock: Why Spanish households will face higher electricity bills in 2025

Electric Shock: Why Spanish Households Will Face Higher Electricity Bills In 2025 Keep up with the Latest News In English Murcia Costa Calida Spain

murciatoday.com

Renewables are only cheap to deploy, they are not cheap for the end users as you require backup power which ends up costing more. Stop falling for the hype, renewables is not cheap for consumers... Governments and renewable zealots will always point to things like above look how much cheaper this is, when in reality the person on the ground is paying more.
Ask Germany who're also heavily renewable why their energy prices for the lowly person on the ground isn't cheaper? Renewables are fine for a house, smaller businesses hell possibly even a suburb. But not to run a country.

 

[Lupus]

I realised this didn't sit well with me logically. We already see some degree of regional power management across the grid.

For example, city of Cape town is able to deal with one or two stages of load shedding with steenbras just for their customers, even when people on Eskom just a few Kms away have to deal with the full brunt of load shedding. This essentially makes it a microgrid, or at very least a grid within a grid.

So I looked it up, and yup, microgrids can work as part of a national grid.

Yup, micro grids would work out, but it would need to of course be managed correctly. I cannot picture City Power doing that.

 

[zll]

Yup, micro grids would work out, but it would need to of course be managed correctly. I cannot picture City Power doing that.

Okay, renewables can't provide base load, oh they can provide base load but only through microgrids, but microgrids don't work with the national grid, oh but they can work with the national grid just City power is run by idiots

 

[The Gilded]

This clown should have just remained in the USA. No one cares about his opinion. We would still be suffering stage 6 or stage 12 load shedding while waiting for his solar plants to come to fruition. By the way, it's overcast today.