De Ruyter warns that South Africa rapidly approaches another electricity cliff and will be plunged back into load-shedding

[Lupus]

And they just called of LS last year

https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/139479/Prime-minister-says-no-return-to-load-shedding-next-summer

 

[Cius]

Consumers still end up paying more for their power, doesn't matter if renewables are cheaper. Also you'd be incorrect on the price for nuclear especially over a longer term, it can be cheaper than coal.
What you forget to factor in for the Wind/Solar is that it's 25% of the price, 25% of the time, the remaining would be gas or coal or whatever.
So in reality it would be
Hydro (if possible) 25%
coal 25%
wind/solar (25% when available)
gas/other form of backup power for wind and solar (25% + fees for keeping them maintained and possibly running)
nuclear 25%
So you're adding 25% or more to the consumers bill cause of the backup power required for renewables right now.

OK, I think I get you. So the cost of renewables go up as if you have big reliance on them you need something expensive like OCGT's anyways as backup just sitting there and occasionally burning diesel or gas.

Not so sure on your nuclear comment. AI summary:

Global Average Cost per kWh (LCOE in USD) - 2024/2025 Trends

• Onshore Wind: ~$0.03 – $0.06/kWh
• Utility-Scale Solar PV: ~$0.04 – $0.08/kWh
• Hydropower: ~$0.05 – $0.10/kWh
• Natural Gas (Combined Cycle): ~$0.05 – $0.11/kWh
• Offshore Wind: ~$0.07 – $0.15/kWh
• Coal: ~$0.07 – $0.17/kWh
• Nuclear: ~$0.14 – $0.22/kWh (highly variable based on project)

Nuclear on average is still by far the most expensive. I know there is a lot of noise about the whole small modular nuclear plants that will reduce setup cost exponentially but I hear there are some limits in the physics due to the steam portion of the plant where large scale plants are just fundamentally more efficient or something. Still an interesting development if they get it right. I am actually fairly pro nuclear for base load, and would love to see the costs come down there.

 

[Lupus]

How much nuclear waste do renewables like wind and solar produce?

They take up far more space and resources than nuclear power plants and waste does, remember in the 80 years of nuclear power plants, all the waste can fill a football field.
Plus solar and wind do not produce all the time and require maintenance as well, plus they need backup power such as gas, OCGTS or something to handle fluctuations quickly or when they stop.
A 2GW nuclear plant takes up far less space and than 2GW of wind, plus that 2GW of nuclear will produce 75% more power over it's life time. In order to do the same with wind you'd need 12GW and that would take a lot of space.

 

[denmendez65]

Your articles are from 2024 I see, when the oil price averaged around 75 to 80$. Things have moved on a lot since then. Spain is now reaping the benefit, as shown in that MORE RECENT article I posted, and the graph I posted showing the long term ongoing drop in cost of renewable still stands. The trend is clear. Fossil fuel will still have its place, but it will be a backup source.

As mentioned already. If SA followed the renewables part during LS we will still be in LS for another 5 years or more. Getting that idiot out and repairing what was already there (coal powerstations) was the fastest way to fix the LS issue.

People can do their Renewables stuff when the grid is sorted. Not trying to sort the grid out with renewables.

 

[wingnut771]

Even if the Spain blackout was solely caused by renewables, which it wasn't, moaning about a single 10 hour unplanned automated loadshedding event on the other side of the planet when you're a Saffa who has experienced multi-day outages for years on end is f**ing hilarious.

If that's the "cautionary tale" I'm supposed to be taking away from this then some people are aiming a few orders of magnitude too low.

Except if we had a blackout it wouldn’t be 10 hours because we don’t have France next door to blackstart the grid.

 

[zll]

Yeah seems to be the case, they'll even argue oh but look demand is down... Forgetting we've lost almost 70% of the bigger industries in the same period.
Turns out the coal power stations seem to be fine, they might be old, but with proper maintenance they seem to be delivering right now.

Demand is down so demand becomes easier to manage.

And the whole point of this discussion isn't about right now anyway. It's about how in 3-5 years those power plants reach EOL.

 

[zll]

They take up far more space and resources than nuclear power plants and waste does, remember in the 80 years of nuclear power plants, all the waste can fill a football field.
Plus solar and wind do not produce all the time and require maintenance as well, plus they need backup power such as gas, OCGTS or something to handle fluctuations quickly or when they stop.
A 2GW nuclear plant takes up far less space and than 2GW of wind, plus that 2GW of nuclear will produce 75% more power over it's life time. In order to do the same with wind you'd need 12GW and that would take a lot of space.

Do we have a space shortage?

 

[CommsPlayer]

None of us have access to the true facts and raw data, so why do we believe those "reports"?

 

[Lupus]

OK, I think I get you. So the cost of renewables go up as if you have big reliance on them you need something expensive like OCGT's anyways as backup just sitting there and occasionally burning diesel or gas.

Not so sure on your nuclear comment. AI summary:

Global Average Cost per kWh (LCOE in USD) - 2024/2025 Trends

• Onshore Wind: ~$0.03 – $0.06/kWh
• Utility-Scale Solar PV: ~$0.04 – $0.08/kWh
• Hydropower: ~$0.05 – $0.10/kWh
• Natural Gas (Combined Cycle): ~$0.05 – $0.11/kWh
• Offshore Wind: ~$0.07 – $0.15/kWh
• Coal: ~$0.07 – $0.17/kWh
• Nuclear: ~$0.14 – $0.22/kWh (highly variable based on project)

Nuclear on average is still by far the most expensive. I know there is a lot of noise about the whole small modular nuclear plants that will reduce setup cost exponentially but I hear there are some limits in the physics due to the steam portion of the plant where large scale plants are just fundamentally more efficient or something. Still an interesting development if they get it right. I am actually fairly pro nuclear for base load, and would love to see the costs come down there.

Yup, for renewables you need a backup generally the backup needs to be the same or higher capacity of the renewable you're deploying. Until we can literally get batteries to the point where they can reliably run for a good length of time at a decent cost that is.
Nuclear is expensive in Western countries due to one thing... People fear it unnecessarily and have it demonised in their minds, this makes costs over-run due to over-regulation. But also you need to take into account life time length and nuclear power becomes cheaper the longer it runs. Whereas renewables for consumers can end up fluctuating due to outside sources.
Imagine you had something that was low carbon, runs almost 24/7 producing 80% to 90% of the time (you need to refuel, so need a little over specc or backup during refuel), once it's running it's costs start to go down instead of up.

Low salaries, nuclear energy prices keep French inflation lowest in Europe

Inflation in France remains strikingly low compared with the rest of Europe, according to official data released January 6. The gap is largely explained by France’s subdued wage growth and cheaper…

brusselssignal.eu

With Nuclear power you can predict and track your expenses, with renewables you're at the whim of whatever backup you're using.

 

[Lupus]

Do we have a space shortage?

Why would you want everything covered in turbines and solar? You know around Koeberg there is a nature reserve? Darling wind farm is just big spinning turbines.

 

[Lupus]

As mentioned already. If SA followed the renewables part during LS we will still be in LS for another 5 years or more. Getting that idiot out and repairing what was already there (coal powerstations) was the fastest way to fix the LS issue.

People can do their Renewables stuff when the grid is sorted. Not trying to sort the grid out with renewables.

100% fix the broken first, reflect on what we need for future

 

[Lupus]

Except if we had a blackout it wouldn’t be 10 hours because we don’t have France next door to blackstart the grid.

Well Spanish hydro lines started the black start procedures, after that the lines between France and Spain were re-energised to continue. We cannot do that with anyone around us.

This is funny

• 12:33:18 – 12:33:21 CEST – grid frequency of the Iberian Peninsula drops below 48.0 Hz. Automatic load shedding is activated.

 

[zll]

As mentioned already. If SA followed the renewables part during LS we will still be in LS for another 5 years or more. Getting that idiot out and repairing what was already there (coal powerstations) was the fastest way to fix the LS issue.

People can do their Renewables stuff when the grid is sorted. Not trying to sort the grid out with renewables.

Man, people keep on blaming ADR for issues he had no control of.

During his time he asked for govt to help provide 4-6GW of power to help Eskom do deep maintenance on the coal power stations. Oberholzer and him asked for this several times.

Of course that didn't appear. Guess when maintenance properly started? After the private sector brought in over 5GW of renewable energy and demand dropped because companies and private individuals brought in their own solar backups.

He asked for OEMs to come in and help with repairs.

OEMs were only brought in after he was kicked out.

He asked for assistance with fighting the criminal networks which had political support in Eskom.

Again, only after he was shown the door and blew the whistle (and conveniently Mabuza died) was security ramped up. Even Vodacom got involved and helps track the trucks.

ADR may not have been the perfect CEO, but you really should do your homework about how much kak this one had to deal with before making claims.

 

[zll]

Why would you want everything covered in turbines and solar? You know around Koeberg there is a nature reserve? Darling wind farm is just big spinning turbines.

Is all the unused land being used for nature reserves?

 

[Lupus]

Is all the unused land being used for nature reserves?

Would far prefer that, to wind farms and solar farms.

 

[zll]

They take up far more space and resources than nuclear power plants and waste does

Source please.

 

[zll]

Would far prefer that, to wind farms and solar farms.

What is all our empty land currently being used for? Is it nature reserves?

 

[zll]

A 2GW nuclear plant takes up far less space and than 2GW of wind, plus that 2GW of nuclear will produce 75% more power over it's life time. In order to do the same with wind you'd need 12GW and that would take a lot of space.

Can you build 2GW of nuclear in 3-5 years?

 

[Lupus]

Source please.

Ok
Remember this can produce 1800MW 24/7
The Koeberg Nuclear Power Station is situated within a 22 km² (approximately 8.5 mi² or 2,200 hectares) area, which includes the plant site and the surrounding Koeberg Nature Reserve.

Koeberg Nuclear Power Station - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

13,668 GW·h

[th]

Annual net output​

[/th]​

How Much Energy and Space Does a Wind Farm Require?

Learn how much land and energy a wind farm needs, and what factors affect its efficiency, profitability, and environmental impact.

greenpowercapital.net

On average, a wind farm requires between 30 and 60 acres per megawatt of installed capacity. Despite this large footprint, the actual land physically occupied by turbine bases and other infrastructure is minimal—typically less than 5% of the total area.
Lets work off an average of 45 acres for a megawatt


You'd need 324 square kilometers to make 1800MW now that would be nameplate capacity

Talatan Solar Park - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

420 km2 (162 sq mi)
As of March 2026, the total installed solar power in the park is 21 GW, with an average annual electricity generation of over 18,000 GWh
So even the largest solar plant just barely generates more than Koeberg a small nuclear plant at the tippy tip of Africa.

 

[Lupus]

Can you build 2GW of nuclear in 3-5 years?

We can't add that in renewables right now, remember renewables are only 25% of their nameplate capacity + you need the equivalent backup to ensure we don't have blackouts.