Has anyone tried Polymarket or Kalshi or any of the Prediction Markets?

[airborne]

There are a few Prediction Markets now available but Polymarket and Kalshi seem to be the biggest and because the accounts are funded with crypto and South Africa isn't geo blocked you can sign up and bet right away.

I watched the video linked below the other day, it's interesting how much better the odds are in prediction markets where 28% win vs traditional betting where only 3% win. With prediction markets you aren't betting against the house with the odds stacked against you, they just take a commission on the bets placed, the user bets fund all winnings.
It's also interesting how the losing/winning predictions are stacked when graphed, they have a very big insider trading problem, there have been some massive whales.
If you worked in a large corporate environment or government entity and got prior knowledge of some market moving info you could quite easily make some very easy money if you didn't get too carried away with huge bets that would be easy to pick as suspicious. A $1000 bet at 20-1 odds will net you $20k and no ones the wiser, at those small amounts it's almost impossible to police.

 

[airborne]

Has no one tried any of these prediction markets, what's the catch??!

 

[HAL 9000]

Some interesting insights regarding Prediction Markets on Stu's YT Channel...

Predictable with Stu Burguiere uses prediction markets to explain politics, elections, sports, and culture through probabilities instead of narratives. Join Stu for daily analysis of the biggest stories shaping the news and the markets.

Rather than chasing headlines, we focus on incentives, probabilities, and where conventional wisdom may be wrong. Whether it's elections, breaking news, sports, or the economy, the goal is simple: understand what's actually likely to happen.

Understand the incentives. Spot the mispricing. Turn information into opportunity.

Predictable with Stu Burguiere

Predictable with Stu Burguiere uses prediction markets to explain politics, elections, sports, and culture through probabilities instead of narratives. Join Stu for daily analysis of the biggest stories shaping the news and the markets. Rather than chasing headlines, we focus on incentives...

www.youtube.com

 

[DodgeThis]

Has no one tried any of these prediction markets, what's the catch??!

The catch is what you have already pointed out - you need insider knowledge to profit e.g. look at the large bets made by Trump's inner circle on key events.

 

[Thrasil]

tried 3 times to do polymarket but the 3 exchanges they recommended to deposit funds i had issues doing whatever their version of fica/source of funds is. eventually gave up. nothing more frustrating when people wont accept your money that you want to lose on gambling.

 

[L-Dog]

Used polymarket a lot last year, placed a few small bets but use it more to follow local news etc.

 

[airborne]

Used polymarket a lot last year, placed a few small bets but use it more to follow local news etc.

How did your bets go and what process did you use to deposit crypto into your Polymarket account?

 

[airborne]

The catch is what you have already pointed out - you need insider knowledge to profit e.g. look at the large bets made by Trump's inner circle on key events.

Insider knowledge will guarantee your bets but there's still some margins there for people to make bets on developing situations and win, well the odds are certainly hugely more in your favour than traditional betting.

Do they have any South African based situations you can bet on, that may be something we might have an advantage on?

 

[L-Dog]

How did your bets go and what process did you use to deposit crypto into your Polymarket account?

Made small bets started with $100 won a few lost a few probably up like $20, sport is the easiest (Although think kalshi is bigger on sports). If you do it seriously can make some decenet money as you just bet outcomes that are mispriced but becoming harder as the market grows.

I sent money from luno to my metamask wallet and just deposited. I withdrew money a few months ago and just checked and saw my account was frozen will need to check why.