SA Politics Part 14 - The New Dawn turns to Dusk

Mike Hoxbig said:
The largest party gets the lion's share, that's kind of obvious. Unless you're saying the ANC should give up more positions of influence nationally. If anything it's these small parties demanding more than their vote share is worth...
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Cool, how has that worked for the DA? Cilliers Brink is running all over Tshwane holding braais, living with regrets.
 
Nom Chompsky said:
You know he predicted 35% for the DA provincially in the WC in 2024? LOL. His predictions are effectively alchemy since he's far too stupid to actually understand polls and what they mean.
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Well, the DA predicted they would get 32% in the 2024 elections, I don't see why Gayton's prediction should be looked down on, this nonsense that it's only DA predictions that matters must come to an end.

www.da.org.za

Just 7% now separates DA and ANC nationally

In a significant development, the DA proudly announces that the gap between our party and the ANC has narrowed to unprecedented levels. The DA is now just 7 points behind the ANC, with the DA securing 32% and the ANC at 39% support from all registered voters.
www.da.org.za
 
TheChamp said:
Cool, how has that worked for the DA? Cilliers Brink is running all over Tshwane holding braais, living with regrets.
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Well he's not currently in a coalition so he can run around doing whatever he wants. Those who are in the coalition are represented proportionally. ASA getting a puppet mayor just proves the point, just like the Al-Jamahaha puppets in Joburg. The actual power rests with the largest party, it's the small parties who can't accept that who go around crying about arrogance...
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
Well he's not currently in a coalition so he can run around doing whatever he wants. Those who are in the coalition are represented proportionally. ASA getting a puppet mayor just proves the point, just like the Al-Jamahaha puppets in Joburg. The actual power rests with the largest party, it's the small parties who can't accept that who go around crying about arrogance...
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He is currently not in a coalition because of the DA greed, that's the point.

But I am not complaining, the DA should continue with their main man attitude, it works well for the Liberation Movement.
 
TheChamp said:
He is currently not in a coalition because of the DA greed, that's the point.
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Hence my last line. Always easier to cry about DA greed than accepting the reality. ASA were perfectly happy with their deputy mayor position, until the GNU happened. Instead of joining they chose to be bitter towards the DA and acted to spite them, as they did in Joburg...
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
Hence my last line. Always easier to cry about DA greed than accepting the reality. ASA were perfectly happy with their deputy mayor position, until the GNU happened. Instead of joining they chose to be bitter towards the DA and acted to spite them, as they did in Joburg...
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The DA must keep on repeating their tried and failed coalition tactics, it works well for all parties.
 
TheChamp said:
No one is spared from the DA poll dominance, not even the MK in KZN.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2087104552361132149
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I'll be kind enough to post it for you.

This is actually a pro-IFP and ANC article, as those who benefited from the stokvel's drop. The DA actually dropped.

So to what end are they paying for these polls, if they're gaining in some and losing in others. It's almost as if it's tracking *shock, horror* an actual election...

  • MK Party still leads eThekwini at 33% but is down sharply from 48% in 2024, hurt by two years of internal chaos under former president Jacob Zuma’s leadership.
  • The IFP is the main beneficiary, surging from 5.5% to 16%, while the DA holds second place at 23% and the ANC recovers modestly to 18% — still far below its 2021 peak of 42%.
  • No party is near a majority, making a coalition inevitable, though KZN’s track record suggests the largest party may be shut out as smaller parties unite against it.
The MK Party (MKP) is comfortably leading the election race in eThekwini at 33%, but it has lost significant support from its showing in the metro in May 2024 (48%), when it came close to achieving a majority, according to the latest opinion poll by The Common Sense/Social Research Foundation (SRF).

The MKP took eThekwini and the province by storm in 2024, causing the ANC to drop to 15% and the IFP to 5.5%. While the MKP is still the biggest party in eThekwini, its fortunes are now in decline following two years of internal chaos in which party president and former president Jacob Zuma has fired office-bearers at will and ruled dictatorially.

The party’s decline has allowed the ANC to recover slightly to 18%, but this is still less than half of what it got in the 2021 local government elections, only five years ago, when it sat on 42%. The ANC is now the third-biggest party in eThekwini, after MKP and the DA, which is polling at 23%.

But the main beneficiary of MKP’s decline is the IFP, which has picked up from 5.5% in 2024 to 16%, indicating that Zulu nationalism remains the most powerful motivating force in the province.

The EFF was at 4%, the FF Plus at 3%, and the Minority Front, a party supported by South Africans of Indian descent, at 2%.

graph.jpeg

Ethekwini poll, July 2026.
The Common Sense


According to The Common Sense, the poll was conducted between 8 and 31 July and polled 500 people. It had a margin of error of 4.4%.


With no party close to a majority, a coalition is again inevitable. While the conventions of coalition-making usually allow the largest party to form a government, this is not likely in KwaZulu-Natal. In the provincial election, parties united to shut out the biggest party – the MKP – which had scored 45% of the vote across the province.

The KwaZulu-Natal is governed by an unstable coalition including the ANC, DA, NFP and IFP, while eThekwini is run by a coalition involving the ANC, EFF and IFP.
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Mike Hoxbig said:
I'll be kind enough to post it for you.

This is actually a pro-IFP and ANC article, as those who benefited from the stokvel's drop. The DA actually dropped.

So to what end are they paying for these polls, if they're gaining in some and losing in others. It's almost as if it's tracking *shock, horror* an actual election...
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This is good for news for the provincial KZN government...hopefully it can be recreated in eThekwini. Literally, any party is better than the MK and the EFF, including the ANC (not much better, mind you, but still, if I was in an ANC-MK marginal, I'd vote ANC).
 
Nom Chompsky said:
This is good for news for the provincial KZN government...hopefully it can be recreated in eThekwini. Literally, any party is better than the MK and the EFF, including the ANC (not much better, mind you, but still, if I was in an ANC-MK marginal, I'd vote ANC).
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It's almost a given that they will replicate their GPU. At least this time it won't be marginal, so no NFP kingmaker nonsense...
 
TheChamp said:
Just two steps bakithi, if she reaches out, she would touch the Mayoral chain.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2087086909537358332
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It looks unlikely any one party gets a majority in Joburg and the DA won't be able to form a government unless all they need is the FF+ and maybe the Reverend.

On the other hand the city does need a change from the destructive influence of the cdes.
 
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