One bird strike away from disaster — Pilots say South Africa’s world-record flyby was dangerous

konfab said:
It is like 911 times 100.
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911 was 3 000 people. Our stadium only holds 57 000, so even if you loaded the plane with a bomb it would only be 20 times 911.

With a full stadium and both planes flying directly into the crowd and people being able to move and exit the stadium, it would still only have deaths in the 100's. Probably more people getting injured though.
 
Nerfherder said:
911 was 3 000 people. Our stadium only holds 57 000, so even if you loaded the plane with a bomb it would only be 20 times 911.

With a full stadium and both planes flying directly into the crowd and people being able to move and exit the stadium, it would still only have deaths in the 100's. Probably more people getting injured though.
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Nerfherder said:
The only way it would make sense was if there was a higher risk of a bird strike happening over the stadium.

I can't see the relationship between "more beers and accidents" and "closer to the stadium and bird strikes"

To me its just the lower you go the more risk, due to the chances of hitting the stadium full of people. Its got nothing to do with bird strikes (which are a risk for every takeoff and landing)
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There is much more potential for a bird strike at a stadium. I just don't see the point of needlessly performing a low proximity flyover with an old passenger plane over a stadium full of people surrounding a dense city of homes. It's selfish. None of us signed up for this. It doesn't matter how experienced the pilots are. Anyone who's paraglided in this area will tell you how completely unpredictable the wind and air pressures are in this pocket.
It's just needless and stupid, and frankly if they were so certyain it was okay they'd not have cancelled the next flyover.
 
The Darkness said:
There is much more potential for a bird strike at a stadium. I just don't see the point of needlessly performing a low proximity flyover with an old passenger plane over a stadium full of people surrounding a dense city of homes. It's selfish. None of us signed up for this. It doesn't matter how experienced the pilots are. Anyone who's paraglided in this area will tell you how completely unpredictable the wind and air pressures are in this pocket.
It's just needless and stupid, and frankly if they were so certyain it was okay they'd not have cancelled the next flyover.
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Exactly! As I stated on one of the other threads, using the weather as an excuse for cancelling the next flight seems like a cover story. I think they got a call from their insurance company, and that was the decisive factor. No more insurance, no more flyovers, no more airline...
 
Gordon_R said:
Exactly! As I stated on one of the other threads, using the weather as an excuse for cancelling the next flight seems like a cover story. I think they got a call from their insurance company, and that was the decisive factor. No more insurance, no more flyovers, no more airline...
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I mean sure it is an unnecessary risk, but surely even a bird strike wouldn't be a sure thing to down an aircraft?
 
R13... said:
I mean sure it is an unnecessary risk, but surely even a bird strike wouldn't be a sure thing to down an aircraft?
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A bird strike will not take down an aircraft under normal circumstances, but if it is flying 12m/50ft above the surface or an obstacle, that height could disappear before the pilots can throttle up the other engine. That is why there are margins, to cater for all sorts of eventualities.
 
R13... said:
I mean sure it is an unnecessary risk, but surely even a bird strike wouldn't be a sure thing to down an aircraft?
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ye, been arguing this in circles for the last few pages.

Highest risk for bird strikes is at takeoff and landing, i can happen high up and there is low chance of survival. At low altitude a bird strike has a higher chance of survival actually.

EDIT: The stadium has those avian deterrent devices so there are actually less birds in the area.
 
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Gordon_R said:
A bird strike will not take down an aircraft under normal circumstances, but if it is flying 12m/50ft above the surface or an obstacle, that height could disappear before the pilots can throttle up the other engine. That is why there are margins, to cater for all sorts of eventualities.
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That is if the bird strike is catastrophic of which most aren't is my point.
 
You guys are squabbling over granular details and if's and buts. The point is that this isn't a 'needed' activity, and not all of us are so bloody rugby obsessed enough to risk our lives for a spectacle. And if this was so 'in-order' then why is the rest of the world so shocked by this situation?
 
The Darkness said:
You guys are squabbling over granular details and if's and buts. The point is that this isn't a 'needed' activity, and not all of us are so bloody rugby obsessed enough to risk our lives for a spectacle. And if this was so 'in-order' then why is the rest of the world so shocked by this situation?
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Its just because of the optics. There were all these shots of what it looks like from the top. IIRC we don't often get those roof shots and there was a drone shot that made it look really low.
No one has actually said that it was lower than usual and thinking about it now, its usually pretty low if I think back to some of the other flyovers we have had.

Its possible that there are a lot more people watching these games as well. There has been a lot of hype around the boks and rugby in general and I know they want to do a WC in the USA, so possibly this game is getting promoted a bit on that side of the world.
 
Gordon_R said:
A bird strike will not take down an aircraft under normal circumstances, but if it is flying 12m/50ft above the surface or an obstacle, that height could disappear before the pilots can throttle up the other engine. That is why there are margins, to cater for all sorts of eventualities.
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Nerfherder said:
911 was 3 000 people. Our stadium only holds 57 000, so even if you loaded the plane with a bomb it would only be 20 times 911.

With a full stadium and both planes flying directly into the crowd and people being able to move and exit the stadium, it would still only have deaths in the 100's. Probably more people getting injured though.
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Have you seen any airplane and/or high speed vehicle accidents before?

a. If you fly a plane that's 1/100th the size of one side of the stadium into it at some speed, then it will take out 50-100% of that whole quarter at least, not just a few seats in a few rows.
b. Stadiums are not meant to take that kind of damage and the two surrounding sides could fail, the roof will collapse and/or the whole structure can go.
c. Vehicles don't in general explode like on tv, but the plane has some amount of fuel in it that is going to spray out and cover a large portion of the stadium.
d. The smoke from the burning fuel is going to get trapped due to the shape of the stadium, visibility will be down to 0 in less than five minutes.
e. After that people are going to panic (look at previous football disasters) and now up to 57k of them are all running for the exits. The first few (low) thousand might make it out, but as soon as the pushing starts its going to turn into a stampede.
 
daveza said:
View attachment 1934689
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flock of Canadian Geese, a large one, with multiple birds ingested. I have seen plenty of aircraft at Louis Botha airport that ingested seagulls and hadedahs, and, aside from a red streak on the first turbine blade, and some smears on the inside of the duct, there was little other evidence, as with a high bypass turbine the area of the bypass is a lot more likely to get the instant chicken a la king served into it, and the primary compressor blade set is in the middle, and more likely the bird will hit on the outside. yes a bird into the core will upset it, and it might have a compressor stall, but only for a second or two, and the engine will recover. Remember these are designed to ingest water, as you do find aircraft flying in heavy rain, where you get lots of water into that compressor, and it often comes in gusts, so they will survive. Small things like mynah birds and the rock rats just simply vanished, not even a puff of feathers, and nothing damage wise. While they might have the bin chickens by the stadium, as there is food in plenty for them, they will all have vanished from the number of people there, and they will not have geese, no open space with water, and geese really do not like to not have water with clear edges.
 
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