SA Politics Part 14 - The New Dawn turns to Dusk

Nom Chompsky said:
Some ANC voters will vote for the DA in Bloemfontein. There - I said it. What is more interesting is the size of the transfers in relation to the EFF and MK.
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I don't think anyone knows how people will vote with this situation. Political science has not yet theorised the sheer retardation that the ANC has managed to hoist upon voters.

Seeing the ANC on a ward ballot, but not on the PR ballot. How does someone vote? Split ballots are not that new, but the ANC has taken it to a new level.
 
konfab said:
I don't think anyone knows how people will vote with this situation. Political science has not yet theorised the sheer retardation that the ANC has managed to hoist upon voters.

Seeing the ANC on a ward ballot, but not on the PR ballot. How does someone vote? Split ballots are not that new, but the ANC has taken it to a new level.
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Yeah, I am just doing what DA people do, make wild claims about what will happen, they generally don't get much opposition, so I don't really expect any opposition to my claims, the best thing you can do is to like my post, not question it.
 
TheChamp said:
Where are you getting that from?
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So some places, they won't have any representatives on any ballot.
“This means that in key ANC strongholds like Port St Johns and Ngquza Hill Local Municipality, they will not have any ward or proportional representation councillors. That is a setback for ANC activists, councillors and the people who planned to vote for the party on election day,” Sussman said.

https://www.enca.com/news-top-stories/anc-fails-bid-get-181-candidates-election-ballot
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In Bloemfontein, I believe they haven't submitted PR candidates either.

In 2021, they got 40 out of 51 wards. As they won't get any PR candidates seats, they will only get their ward seats.

https://newsday.co.za/elections/?el...d=1091&level=municipality&provid=2&munid=2207

As the municipality has 101 seats, they have capped themselves max to roughly 40% of the vote. And that is assuming none of their seats get taken and split by the EFF/MK etc.

They were in for a rough election, but this just makes it terminal.
 
konfab said:
So some places, they won't have any representatives on any ballot.


In Bloemfontein, I believe they haven't submitted PR candidates either.

In 2021, they got 40 out of 51 wards. As they won't get any PR candidates seats, they will only get their ward seats.

https://newsday.co.za/elections/?el...d=1091&level=municipality&provid=2&munid=2207

As the municipality has 101 seats, they have capped themselves max to roughly 40% of the vote. And that is assuming none of their seats get taken and split by the EFF/MK etc.

They were in for a rough election, but this just makes it terminal.
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Yeah, we were talking about Mangaung, the DA have no hope in hell in the other municipalities even if the ANC is absent.
 
TheChamp said:
Where are you getting that from?
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I think misunderstanding (mine too) about this is that party must announce their mayoral candidates to public before elections.

It seems it is not so as long as they submit the list to IEC.

The ANC changed its traditional strategy for the 2026 Local Government Elections. In past elections, they only named their preferred mayor after the votes were counted. For this election, the party's electoral committee mandated that mayoral candidates for metropolitan municipalities be announced to the public prior to Election Day (4 November 2026) to campaign transparently
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Sideshow Bob said:
I think misunderstanding (mine too) about this is that party must announce their mayoral candidates to public before elections.

It seems it is not so as long as they submit the list to IEC.
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Yeah, that's not the case, a Mayor is elected in council, so there is no electoral process that requires the naming of mayoral candidates, everyone is a councilllor candidate until they are elected as Mayor, even the Great Zille.
 
TheChamp said:
Yeah, we were talking about Mangaung, the DA have no hope in hell in the other municipalities even if the ANC is absent.
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Don't be so sure. If you want to get into the weeds of it, an electoral outcome isn't necessarily representative of people's ranked preferences due to Arrow's impossibility theorem.

Arrow's impossibility theorem - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
TheChamp said:
Where are you getting that from?
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Aren't there some municipalities where the ANC don't have both ward and PR councillors?

Edit: OK so in Manguang it's only no PR candidates, but that means even if ANC won every ward (which they won't), they could only get 50%.

Edit: I see they won 40 wards last time out (out of a total of 101 councillors), so actually have a good chance of retaining Manguang in a coalition. Damn! :cautious: Even if they only win 25-30 wards (due to a loss of support), that's quite a large minority in 101-member council.
 
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