An Economy without Eskom?

[ZombieKing]

Economics is essentially existential in that it centres around the concept of gain versus loss. Pulling an investor is as much an art then what it is a science.

Pulling in an investor to actually invest in us as a nation rather than in our current economy will be hard. Eskom is failing and with it our infrastructure. Without infrastructure, investors will calculate that the risk is too high and would do the correct thing and walk away. Investors represent investor groups that represent investment funds. Those funds come from normal people that are putting their faith in a retirement fund. So those funds must be spent wisely.

What makes South Africa a bad investment? Crime, corruption, failing infrastructure political wild cards and the list goes on. The question that we must ask ourselves is, will we exist in 5 to 10 years as a short-term investment? Will we exist in 30 years as a long-term investment?

Currently, the answer is no. Eskom is the canary in the coal mine. It is the very first thing any investment group will look at and it will determine our industries, our export and our income.

From 2023 to 2025 we as a country must consider what it is that we can export that will have value, that is renewable and sustainable. It is the only way to save ourselves from inevitable perpetual poverty.

We must identify low-energy consumption markets and start focusing on how we can draw investments into those markets.

What is a sustainable market?

A sustainable market is a market that can produce enough for itself to function and export excess as sustainable profit.

Agriculture is one such market. It can sustain itself via green energy, and create consumable products like food and biofuel as well as biofertilizers. All of these products can be exported and are consumables meaning there will always be a demand. Investors zero in on consumable markets because they will almost always generate positive growth.

The question we must ask ourselves is can we turn Agriculture into our main export in 5 to 7 years?

Eskom is a liability, it is a high-risk factor and it is unsustainable the problem is that these sentiments reflect on our economy. Investors see South Africa as volatile.

Both the political and private sectors need to seriously consider how they can stimulate industrial agricultural development. It needs to be scalable, sustainable and profitable. This system needs to be transparent to the investors and participants.


If we want a future, this is where it starts. The alternative is a mass exodus

 

[Messugga]

Dude, go to bed.

 

[MagNorthDigital]

How is it, that ZombieKing over here, has dedicated more brain power to solving the problems of the country, on Xmas day. Than the f***ing ANC government has over the last two decades.

My dude, ZA needs people willing to solve the big problems, but the majority in this country would rather ignore you, steal from you, or murder you and your family.

You can't help people who literally get taken for a p03$ every 4 years with a t-shirt and a streetwise two. How do you reason with someone too stupid to help themselves with anything other than via opportunistic destruction.

Solve your personal situation first. Get the hell out of dodge. Go live in Botswana, Angola, Rwanda, Mauritius or Thailand. Even if only to get un-skull-fked a little

 

[Magnum]

Dude, go to bed.

Wish I could.

 

[B-1]

Zim used to be the bread basket of africa, agriculture isn't immune to bad leadership and security issues. You can spend years to build the best infrastructure in the world on a farm and invest a lot of money all for it to be stripped to nothing in a few days.

 

[Forum Reader]

Another knock on effect will be recession. If people have to spend more money to keep the lights on, they'll have less money left over to spend on goods and services. That's how recessions start and businesess start failing one by one as they have fewer and fewer customers. Fewer businesses means less people with money to spend and then the cycle becomes self sustaining.

 

[Paul_S]

I don't think agriculture is the answer especially not with EWC sitting on the sidelines waiting to be called into action on short notice.

I chatted to a chicken egg farmer a few months ago and he ended up going the diesel generator route instead of solar PV because solar is too much of a capital investment in an uncertain environment and solar also isn't dependable enough. He had to invest in two 10MW gen sets or close his business due to all the load shedding.

Then there is the real risk of not being able to export your product due to bans. Take a look at what is happening to our citrus fruit producers at the moment with the false codling moth bans. Add bans for swine flu, foot-and-mouth disease, etc.

Then slap on export/import trade agreements where other countries ban the import of certain food products to protect their own producers and it's not hard to see that basing your primary economy on agricultural exports is a very risky proposition.

 

[ZombieKing]

My girlfriend and I are planning to visit a few neighbouring countries at the end of next year. I have Family in Australia we might be visiting them as well. I just want to first finish my Bachelor's. If no one is going to fix this country then exodus it is.

 

[ZombieKing]

I don't think agriculture is the answer especially not with EWC sitting on the sidelines waiting to be called into action on short notice.

I chatted to a chicken egg farmer a few months ago and he ended up going the diesel generator route instead of solar PV because solar is too much of a capital investment in an uncertain environment and solar also isn't dependable enough. He had to invest in two 10MW gen sets or close his business due to all the load shedding.

Then there is the real risk of not being able to export your product due to bans. Take a look at what is happening to our citrus fruit producers at the moment with the false codling moth bans. Add bans for swine flu, foot-and-mouth disease, etc.

Then slap on export/import trade agreements where other countries ban the import of certain food products to protect their own producers and it's not hard to see that basing your primary economy on agricultural exports is a very risky proposition.

If a farmer is not going to invest in their own farm due to uncertainty, then it is safe to say investors will not invest as well.

 

[bromster]

Economics is essentially existential in that it centres around the concept of gain versus loss. Pulling an investor is as much an art then what it is a science.

Pulling in an investor to actually invest in us as a nation rather than in our current economy will be hard. Eskom is failing and with it our infrastructure. Without infrastructure, investors will calculate that the risk is too high and would do the correct thing and walk away. Investors represent investor groups that represent investment funds. Those funds come from normal people that are putting their faith in a retirement fund. So those funds must be spent wisely.

What makes South Africa a bad investment? Crime, corruption, failing infrastructure political wild cards and the list goes on. The question that we must ask ourselves is, will we exist in 5 to 10 years as a short-term investment? Will we exist in 30 years as a long-term investment?

Currently, the answer is no. Eskom is the canary in the coal mine. It is the very first thing any investment group will look at and it will determine our industries, our export and our income.

From 2023 to 2025 we as a country must consider what it is that we can export that will have value, that is renewable and sustainable. It is the only way to save ourselves from inevitable perpetual poverty.

We must identify low-energy consumption markets and start focusing on how we can draw investments into those markets.

What is a sustainable market?

A sustainable market is a market that can produce enough for itself to function and export excess as sustainable profit.

Agriculture is one such market. It can sustain itself via green energy, and create consumable products like food and biofuel as well as biofertilizers. All of these products can be exported and are consumables meaning there will always be a demand. Investors zero in on consumable markets because they will almost always generate positive growth.

The question we must ask ourselves is can we turn Agriculture into our main export in 5 to 7 years?

Eskom is a liability, it is a high-risk factor and it is unsustainable the problem is that these sentiments reflect on our economy. Investors see South Africa as volatile.

Both the political and private sectors need to seriously consider how they can stimulate industrial agricultural development. It needs to be scalable, sustainable and profitable. This system needs to be transparent to the investors and participants.


If we want a future, this is where it starts. The alternative is a mass exodus

Eskom is one kneecap. The other is fresh water supply.

Eastern Cape dams are the Canary in the coal mine nobody is even talking about.

My guess is they'll be talking about it in 4 months.

 

[Paul_S]

Eskom is one kneecap. The other is fresh water supply.

Eastern Cape dams are the Canary in the coal mine nobody is even talking about.

My guess is they'll be talking about it in 4 months.

In that case thank goodness the Eastern Cape contributes less than 10% of South Africa's total agricultural production.
Agriculture only contributes 2.5% to our GDP in any case so need to panic.

The residents will just need to become self sufficient or migrate to other provinces. Oh wait ... that's already happening (EC residents moving to WC).
About the nicest place I've been to in the EC is Jeffrey's Bay. East London and PE are dumps and so are most of the inland towns. To be honest I don't know why anyone would want to live there unless they were born there and are too lazy to move.

 

[chrisc]

If Eskom cannot support a national grid and the infrastructure is too weak or insecure to handle expansion, then we will have to go back to regional power generation

The Western Cape Govt has this scenario firmly in their sights

 

[grok]

Take Zim, they banned the export of raw Lithium wanting to force the production of batteries to benefit their locals.

With what electricity exactly? Infrastructure matters to economies, investors better bring their own exactly like JvR didn't bring the land on those 3 ships..

 

[BeerIsNotGood...]

If Eskom cannot support a national grid and the infrastructure is too weak or insecure to handle expansion, then we will have to go back to regional power generation

The Western Cape Govt has this scenario firmly in their sights

There shouldn’t even be a national grid

 

[richjdavies]

Provincial level power grids with independent generators and import / export across those boundaries.

Makes a lot of sense! Western Cape and CoCT gunning for this.
Northern Cape (with all its sun) should be asking for it too! They don't get the service they should for new grid interconnects...

 

[zoozi]

If Eskom cannot support a national grid and the infrastructure is too weak or insecure to handle expansion, then we will have to go back to regional power generation

The Western Cape Govt has this scenario firmly in their sights

Is there any way to track the existence and progress of this supposed WC IPP plan? Lots of waffle and promises. Got a very vague response when I asked on Twitter.

 

[chrisc]

A large solar installation is under construction and will be on-line in 2024
This will contribute to Cape Town and environs power requirements
Maybe twitter is not the correct platform

 

[neoprema]

Economics is essentially existential in that it centres around the concept of gain versus loss. Pulling an investor is as much an art then what it is a science.

Pulling in an investor to actually invest in us as a nation rather than in our current economy will be hard. Eskom is failing and with it our infrastructure. Without infrastructure, investors will calculate that the risk is too high and would do the correct thing and walk away. Investors represent investor groups that represent investment funds. Those funds come from normal people that are putting their faith in a retirement fund. So those funds must be spent wisely.

What makes South Africa a bad investment? Crime, corruption, failing infrastructure political wild cards and the list goes on. The question that we must ask ourselves is, will we exist in 5 to 10 years as a short-term investment? Will we exist in 30 years as a long-term investment?

Currently, the answer is no. Eskom is the canary in the coal mine. It is the very first thing any investment group will look at and it will determine our industries, our export and our income.

From 2023 to 2025 we as a country must consider what it is that we can export that will have value, that is renewable and sustainable. It is the only way to save ourselves from inevitable perpetual poverty.

We must identify low-energy consumption markets and start focusing on how we can draw investments into those markets.

What is a sustainable market?

A sustainable market is a market that can produce enough for itself to function and export excess as sustainable profit.

Agriculture is one such market. It can sustain itself via green energy, and create consumable products like food and biofuel as well as biofertilizers. All of these products can be exported and are consumables meaning there will always be a demand. Investors zero in on consumable markets because they will almost always generate positive growth.

The question we must ask ourselves is can we turn Agriculture into our main export in 5 to 7 years?

Eskom is a liability, it is a high-risk factor and it is unsustainable the problem is that these sentiments reflect on our economy. Investors see South Africa as volatile.

Both the political and private sectors need to seriously consider how they can stimulate industrial agricultural development. It needs to be scalable, sustainable and profitable. This system needs to be transparent to the investors and participants.


If we want a future, this is where it starts. The alternative is a mass exodus

The problem with your statement is that that is what the country needs to do IF those in power want to save it. But as with many African countries, those in power are only in it for themselves and to make a quick buck. Its everyone for themselves so the decisions made will be to steal as much as possible in as short a time as as possible.

It is not about the longevity of the country, its about pillaging and that is what is going on here.

Sure, other countries - even the USA for example have those who are in power simply to benefit themselves and steal. But they're saved somewhat because those who want to steal and pillage make up a small % of the Government. Here, they make up almost the entire government.

 

[AlphaJohn]

Back in 1890-1930 each company & mine had their own power production.
Eskom's 1st power plant was only built in 1927 and only supplied power to a town. IE: there was no grid in the start.

We are going back to those days....

 

[rvZA]

Back in 1890-1930 each company & mine had their own power production.
Eskom's 1st power plant was only built in 1927 and only supplied power to a town. IE: there was no grid in the start.

We are going back to those days....

Back in 1890, manufacturing was extremely low. Food production was low. The population was much smaller. It took many thousands of farmers to barely provide for the people of the country. They had no labour laws and minimum wage back then. Today things are much worse in SA.