Dramatic change at Eskom

Eskom’s latest performance data showed a dramatic reduction in its unplanned breakdowns, also known as the Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF).

Energy analyst Chris Yelland highlighted that Eskom’s UCLF dropped by five percentage points — from 30.56% to 25.56% — over the last week.

The decline was unexpected as unplanned breakdowns hovered around 30% for the first 17 weeks of 2024.

The big decline in unplanned breakdowns caused the week-on-week energy availability factor (EAF) to rise sharply from 58.60% to 62.08%.

EAF shows the percentage of time power stations were available for use when needed. It is a core measure of performance for any power utility.

What is particularly impressive is that Eskom’s EAF showed a big improvement despite an increase in planned maintenance outages (PCLF) from 10.47% to 12.01%.

Eskom’s improved performance aligns with comments from electricity minister Kgosientsho “Sputla” Ramokgopa and Eskom chair Mteto Nyati.

Two weeks ago, Ramokgopa revealed that Eskom had achieved a daily energy availability factor (EAF) of over 65%.

“This milestone validates the viability of the Eskom fleet of generation units and signifies the most efficient path to ending load shedding,” he said.

Ramokgopa added that, given this performance’s proven success, the focus now shifts to maintaining and enhancing it.

Nyati explained that the improved performance resulted from a plan for Eskom put together 18 months ago.

“The plan was developed with management, presented to the Eskom board, and approved in March 2023,” he said.

The plan focused on accelerating and executing planned maintenance. Eskom partnered with the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to do this maintenance.

“When we take a plant down, we work with people with deep expertise about the equipment used at that plant,” Nyati said.

The accelerated maintenance was conducted over the last twelve months, and it is now starting to show results.

Nyati said the generation units returning to service are far more reliable than before, helping to limit load-shedding.

He added that last Thursday, Eskom hit a record with 32,000 MW of available generation capacity. “This is much higher than the supply,” he said.

The chart below, courtesy of Yelland and EE Business Intelligence, shows Eskom’s improved performance over the last week.

Eskom Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF)

Eskom Energy Availability Factor (EAF) – 2024 in green