Telkom haemorrhaging fixed line subscribers
Telkom has published its interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2014, revealing that the company currently has 3,531,000 fixed access lines – down from 3,713,000 a year ago.
This brings Telkom’s fixed line penetration rate (which it said uses 2011 Census data) down to 6.8% from 7.2% a year ago.
The company’s fixed line subscriber base is now at its lowest point since 1993, which places pressure on the company’s turnaround plan. To offer digital subscriber line (DSL) services such as ADSL or VDSL, a fixed line to clients’ premises is needed.
With fixed line numbers declining, the pool of people to whom additional fixed line products can be sold is also shrinking.
The following table provides an overview of Telkom’s fixed-line performance over the last 12 months.
| Lines | September 2013 (’000) | September 2014 (’000) | Percentage growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed access lines | 3,713 | 3,531 | –4.9% |
| Post-paid – PSTN | 2,396 | 2,346 | –2.1% |
| Post-paid – ISDN channels | 750 | 719 | –4.1% |
| Pre-paid | 478 | 405 | –15.3% |
| Payphones | 89 | 61 | –31.5% |
The lower number of fixed lines means that Telkom’s “fixed access lines per employee” ratio is now 188, down from 192 a year ago.
In addition, fixed line voice traffic is down 6.1%, while revenue per fixed access line is also down by 1%.
Since the year 2000 Telkom’s annual results have shown a steady decline in fixed line numbers, despite an economic boom from 2003 to 2007 and the launch of ADSL in late 2002.
Telkom’s steady decline in fixed line numbers since the turn of the century has been blamed on many factors, including competition from mobile services, copper theft, and tough economic conditions.
The table and graph below provide an overview of Telkom’s fixed line growth and decline since the early 90s, along with the year-on-year and 6-monthly changes in subscriber numbers (where available).
Telkom fixed line subscribers 1993-2014
| Date | Fixed line subscribers | YoY Change | 6 months change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 | 3,458,000 | — | — |
| 1994 | 3,594,000 | 136,000 | — |
| 1995 | 3,773,000 | 179,000 | — |
| 1996 | 3,926,000 | 153,000 | — |
| 1997 | 4,259,000 | 333,000 | — |
| 1998 | 4,645,000 | 386,000 | — |
| 1999 | 5,075,000 | 430,000 | — |
| 2000 | 5,493,000 | 418,000 | — |
| 2001 | 4,962,000 | -531,000 | — |
| Mar-02 | 4,924,000 | -38,000 | — |
| Mar-03 | 4,844,000 | -80,000 | — |
| Sep-03 | 4,812,000 | — | -32,000 |
| Mar-04 | 4,821,000 | -23,000 | 9,000 |
| Sep-04 | 4,870,000 | 58,000 | 49,000 |
| Mar-05 | 4,726,000 | -95,000 | -144,000 |
| Sep-05 | 4,730,000 | -140,000 | 4,000 |
| Mar-06 | 4,708,000 | -18,000 | -22,000 |
| Sep-06 | 4,675,000 | -55,000 | -33,000 |
| Mar-07 | 4,642,000 | -66,000 | -33,000 |
| Sep-07 | 4,621,000 | -54,000 | -21,000 |
| Mar-08 | 4,532,000 | -110,000 | -89,000 |
| Sep-08 | 4,504,000 | -117,000 | -28,000 |
| Mar-09 | 4,451,000 | -81,000 | -53,000 |
| Sep-09 | 4,398,000 | -106,000 | -53,000 |
| Mar-10 | 4,273,000 | -178,000 | -125,000 |
| Sep-10 | 4,234,000 | -164,000 | -39,000 |
| Mar-11 | 4,152,000 | -121,000 | -82,000 |
| Sep-11 | 4,073,000 | -161,000 | -79,000 |
| Mar-12 | 3,995,000 | -157,000 | -78,000 |
| Sep-12 | 3,894,000 | -179,000 | -101,000 |
| Mar-13 | 3,800,000 | -195,000 | -94,000 |
| Sep-13 | 3,713,000 | -181,000 | -87,000 |
| Mar-14 | 3,618,000 | -182,000 | -95,000 |
| Sep-14 | 3,531,000 | -182,000 | -87,000 |
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