Telkom fixed lines are getting killed
Telkom released its interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2019, which show a huge decline in fixed-line subscribers.
Telkom’s fixed-line subscribers declined from 2,566,000 in September 2018 to 1,975,000 in September 2019.
This means Telkom lost 591,000 fixed-line subscribers over the last year, which equates to a 23% decline in its fixed-access line customer base.
While this decline is not new – Telkom has been struggling to hold onto its fixed-line users since 2000 – the rapid loss of fixed lines over the last year is concerning.
Decline in fixed broadband lines
Telkom’s fixed-line broadband subscribers – which include ADSL, VDSL, and fibre-to-the-home customers – declined from 974,181 in September 2018 to 781,255 in September 2019.
This comes at a time when there is a tremendous demand for fibre-to-the-home services, a market which Telkom should dominate.
The decline in fixed-line broadband subscribers has a knock-on effect. It suffered serious losses on its Internet service provider (ISP) subscribers over the last year.
Telkom Internet all-access subscribers declined from 550,606 in September 2018 to 476,763 in September 2019.
Instead of doubling down and regaining its dominance in the fixed-broadband market, it is moving in the opposite direction.
Telkom is actively cutting ADSL lines as part of discontinuing its copper network, and has reduced its fibre investment by 36%.
This means that Telkom is happy to relinquish its dominance in the fixed-broadband market and let companies like Vumatel, Octotel, and Frogfoot eat its lunch.
Telkom fixed-line subscriber decline
The table below provides an overview of Telkom’s fixed-line growth and decline since 1993.
| Telkom Fixed Lines | ||
|---|---|---|
| Date | Subscribers | YoY Change |
| 1993 | 3,458,000 | — |
| 1994 | 3,594,000 | 136,000 |
| 1995 | 3,773,000 | 179,000 |
| 1996 | 3,926,000 | 153,000 |
| 1997 | 4,259,000 | 333,000 |
| 1998 | 4,645,000 | 386,000 |
| 1999 | 5,075,000 | 430,000 |
| 2000 | 5,493,000 | 418,000 |
| 2001 | 4,962,000 | -531,000 |
| Mar-02 | 4,924,000 | -38,000 |
| Mar-03 | 4,844,000 | -80,000 |
| Sep-03 | 4,812,000 | — |
| Mar-04 | 4,821,000 | -23,000 |
| Sep-04 | 4,870,000 | 58,000 |
| Mar-05 | 4,726,000 | -95,000 |
| Sep-05 | 4,730,000 | -140,000 |
| Mar-06 | 4,708,000 | -18,000 |
| Sep-06 | 4,675,000 | -55,000 |
| Mar-07 | 4,642,000 | -66,000 |
| Sep-07 | 4,621,000 | -54,000 |
| Mar-08 | 4,532,000 | -110,000 |
| Sep-08 | 4,504,000 | -117,000 |
| Mar-09 | 4,451,000 | -81,000 |
| Sep-09 | 4,398,000 | -106,000 |
| Mar-10 | 4,273,000 | -178,000 |
| Sep-10 | 4,234,000 | -164,000 |
| Mar-11 | 4,152,000 | -121,000 |
| Sep-11 | 4,073,000 | -161,000 |
| Mar-12 | 3,995,000 | -157,000 |
| Sep-12 | 3,894,000 | -179,000 |
| Mar-13 | 3,800,000 | -195,000 |
| Sep-13 | 3,713,000 | -181,000 |
| Mar-14 | 3,618,000 | -182,000 |
| Sep-14 | 3,531,000 | -182,000 |
| Mar-15 | 3,439,000 | -179,000 |
| Sep-15 | 3,323,000 | -208,000 |
| Mar-16 | 3,217,000 | -222,000 |
| Sep-16 | 3,090,000 | -233,000 |
| Mar-17 | 2,954,000 | -263,000 |
| Sep-17 | 2,840,000 | -250,000 |
| Mar-18 | 2,678,000 | -276,000 |
| Sep-18 | 2,566,000 | -274,000 |
| Mar-19 | 2,267,000 | -411,000 |
| Sep-19 | 1,975,000 | -591,000 |
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