The Gauteng E-tolling Prediction Thread

LazyLion

LazyLion

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OK, so I know a lot of this will be obvious or self evident, but I wanted to make a thread to record our predictions around the e-tolling system so that we could compare notes in a few year's time. So here are my predictions.... (I know I could be wildly off on some of these, but whatever, we can laugh about it at some point in the future!)

1) There will still be many legal challenges to the tolling system in the coming months and years. Firstly, there is the DA and FF+ legal challenge around the constitutionality of the Transport Bill which was not classified correctly when it was being debated.
2) There is the FF+ legal challenge around the 13 day notice period given by the minister (should have been 14 days).
3) There will be a legal challenge to the fact that SANRAL is exempt from the NCA (Credit Act).
4) There will be a legal challenge to the 7 day payment period (might be combined with the above).
5) There will be a legal challenge to the fact that registered motorists pay less than unregistered motorists (discrimination).
6) There might possibly also be a legal challenge to the Taxi exemption rule.
7) The cloning/tampering of license plates will become a fairly major issue, if only with the media.
8) Billing irregularities and mistakes will also be a major media focus point.
9) OUTA is not done yet, and we will still see a lot of activity from them.
10) The e-tolling will not have any visible effect on the elections next year at all.
11) There will be a booming business for the Debt Collection industry with many new players setting up shop.
12) These debt collectors will of course still be subject to the NCA (Credit Act) and that fact will be a major issue for them.
13) SANRAL will make a loss selling people's debt to the debt collectors, as in most cases it will not be financially viable to recover the debt.
14) SANRAL will eventually start having to combine up to six months of toll debt into one bundle in order to make it financially viable to collect.
15) SANRAL will initially try to load penalties and excessive charges onto people's accounts at first, but these will soon be legally challenged.
16) When SANRAL realises that it cannot just charge any amount willy nilly, it will then realise that it has a collection problem.
17) Collecting from people who are tagged and registered will even be a problem for SANRAL.
18) There will be numerous technical glitches plaguing their camera systems, billing software and online systems.
19) If the e-tolling system ever fails completely, it will not fail within the first two years. It might take 3.
20) The Government will have to inject cash loans at some point in the future, to either fix systems or to bail SANRAL out completely.
21) The GFIP phase two project will not begin for another 3 years at least.
22) There will be several attempts at sabotage against the gantries in the next six months, they will be largely unsuccessful.
23) The M1 and M2 highways in Johannesburg will become almost unusable at any time of the day.
24) Traffic lights not working on back roads will become a major source of frustration to some people - more than ever before.
25) Potholes on back roads will become a major issue in the rainy months and metros will not even have enough time to fix them.
26) At some point in time a scandal will be uncovered where it will be discovered that certain individuals will be enriching themselves through e-tolling.
27) At some point in the future a commission will be appointed to investigate who is to blame for the e-tolling debacle and why it ultimately failed.

Now, let's hear your predictions? :D
 
Not going to say anything.

Just gonna stock up on popcorn and tell everybody who registered "Told you so" :D
 
Compton_effect said:
at least one case where the taxi drivers block the highways to the cheers of motorists.
Click to expand...


Taxi drivers won't gain by blocking the highways, as they are exempt from paying e-tolls due to being public transport.
Same reason they don't get upset when the fuel price goes up. They are subsidised due to being public transport.
(How many times have you seen a taxi filling up at a garage next to you?)
 
pezulu said:
Taxi drivers won't gain by blocking the highways, as they are exempt from paying e-tolls due to being public transport.
Same reason they don't get upset when the fuel price goes up. They are subsidised due to being public transport.
(How many times have you seen a taxi filling up at a garage next to you?)
Click to expand...

The are excempt if registered. And it seems most have not bothered to. An a lot of taxi owners have been registering everything they own on 4 wheels. I want to be around the firs time EWN asks Sanral about so-and-so's BMW being registered as a taxi...
Oh- and that wil also happen.
 
pezulu said:
They are subsidised due to being public transport.
Click to expand...
Serious? So my taxes are being used to keep those death traps on the road? grrr

>7) The cloning/tampering of license plates will become a fairly major issue, if only with the media.

sigh...yes that too. No doubt Scamral will somehow try to make it the motorists problem.
 
right after the elections, toll fees will skyrocket, until the government is miraculously able to lower cost drastically in say... four years?
 
:whistle:
Gets a numberplate made to say xyz142 GP');DROP DATABASE *;
:whistle:

Wouldn't that be fun having sunscam explaining that to the trough feeders.
 
My prediction on how this will eventually work:

For non-eTag drivers
1) After 7 days of incurring costs, an invoice will be issued but NOT sent via postal service
2) After 30 days after the invoice has been issued, it will be lodged as a traffic offense in terms of the eTolls Act and passed on via eNatis to the general traffic violations processes... probably same as AARTO infringements.
3) After 60 days, you'll get a notification slip in the post saying that there's a AARTO fine at the post office. You'll see that there will be an additional cost of R60 added to the amount owing as a charge for sending out the notification. (there will be some sort of photo attached I rate)
4) After another 30 days (90 days after invoice), a summons will be issued under the normal traffic violations process.
5) When you try re-register your vehicle, there will be outstanding warrants on your vehicle so you'll have to settle them before being allowed to re-register.

For eTag users:

1) eTag readers will be offline at some stage... so you'll STILL be subjected to times when you incur costs and penalties as if you weren't eTaged. There will be a process to appeal and so on... but it will be cumbersome and a general eff-up.
2) First few months of eTaggery will be fraught with issues... website will be done, service centers will be offline and you won't be able to "pay as you go". Only the direct billing via credit card will be functioning correctly. (Note: you get charged by your bank for electronic swipes... R4 is the going rate. So you'll pay R4 on top of a R1.50 transaction. Thanks Beep Bank, thanks Steve)

General predictions

1) eTags will become a political card game. If you're a politician, (or anyone prominent for that matter), buying an eTag will be construed as "supporting Zuma and/or the ANC". So "Buy an eTag if you support Zuma!' and... "If you buy an eTag you're a ZUMA SUPPORTER!" will be the political ammo being slung around in the next couple of weeks.

2) Cosatu will make noise (to keep up appearances of being on the side of the working class) ... but ultimately... they have been told to tow the line. If they REALLY wanted to protest, they would've done so already. (remember the DA led "youth wage subsidy" thing? Cosatu mobilized within HOURS to have thousands of members in the streets).

3) Bad news: the Sanral system will never fail. Wayne is being extremely optimistic and emotional by trying to create the perception that it will. Sanral got a FIVE BILLION RAND CHEQUE out of the tax pool like it was pocket money. They have the governments backing and that, unfortunately, is that... if cracks appear... they have ENDLESS resources to throw at the problem and it'll get fixed.

4) Insurance companies will insist on eTags. THIS IS A BIG ONE. This will be the determining factor. eTags will also be able to "identify" serial speedsters so the insurances will jump aboard. The RAF will probably also back eTolls and work an angle.

5) ANC will lose votes... but not many... The only place where it could've had an impact would have been a LOCAL ELECTION... but the next one is in five years... things would have calmed down by then.

6) Money trail will be followed... the usual suspects will pop up. Chancellor House even.

7) Life will go on? Quite normally actually?
 
Breaking the Law by Judas Priest will become the official anthem of e-toll resistance:D

[video=youtube;L397TWLwrUU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L397TWLwrUU[/video]
 
There will be price increases, job losses and general deflation. This will lead to political unrest. There might be deaths. God help the ANC if they use force via the police.
 
koeksGHT said:
I hope not, destructive and dangerous hopefully
Click to expand...

do what they did in france once, blockade the roads with semi trailer trucks under the gantries,
the traffic blacklog will be IMMENSE,

oh yes and JHB will no longer be the economic powerhouse of RSA.....
everybody will move to CPT until those gantries pop up there....
 
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