Rain and storm for Cpt pt 2

Gordon_R said:
Looks like the fire is out this morning. Very light winds overnight, probably helped damp it down. There is thick fog over Table Bay, so the Milnerton webcam doesn't show much.
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There is still thick fog in Rondebosch right now, did that used to be a more common occurrence in Cape Town or perhaps not because any time there are decent wind speeds it all gets blown away?
 
airborne said:
There is still thick fog in Rondebosch right now, did that used to be a more common occurrence in Cape Town or perhaps not because any time there are decent wind speeds it all gets blown away?
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A bit of both. Wind definitely makes a difference, but the synoptic outlook governs the flow of moist and dry airmasses. This winter has been different in so many respects.

Fog on the Atlantic Seaboard has caused many shipwrecks over the decades, hence the Green Point lighthouse (and foghorn).

I'm sitting in the fog in Keurboom Park (bordering Rondebosch Boys High). Was also gloomy in Kenilworth. Driving here was quite spooky...

Edit: I wasn't able to upload this morning's SAWS ship synoptic chart, which shows very weak pressure gradients (little wind), and a weak cold-front brushing the coast just offshore of CT:
ship[20260803_0000].gif
 
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WAslayer said:
Fog is thiccc this morning.. worst I've seen it in Kuils River in 4 years.. average visibility of 100m, with a 500m stretch of bottelary road down to 20m.. saw too many tards with their brights on and too little with fog lights on..
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Nice and thick.
Drove to work today with psychedelic music on. It was an experience :)
 
A bit of medium cloud but sun's out so to speak SP side of mountain... think high cloud due later on today, but this am was nothing like yesterday morning's fog and mist!
 
This was taken from my friend's house, Ocean View Drive, at 5pm Sunday....my camera didn't pick up the absolute magnificence of the blazing orange sun with the mist sitting only over the sea.
d27e224cde09f78d8bbae5e3a6f8ec73.jpg
 
Edit: The next cold-front will brush the SW-Cape early on Thurs 6th.

Long range forecasts show the potential for some proper winter weather next weekend (Sun 9th).
southafricasnownext3to6days[20260810_0000].jpg
 
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Gordon_R said:
Long range forecasts show the potential for some proper winter weather next weekend (Sun 9th).
View attachment 1927160
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Yes, but it also shows that the High pressure system is not going away.. It just looks like the low pressure system bringing this potential rain is stronger than normal and pushing the prevailing high away a little bit..
 
WAslayer said:
Yes, but it also shows that the High pressure system is not going away.. It just looks like the low pressure system bringing this potential rain is stronger than normal and pushing the prevailing high away a little bit..
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Yes. The weekend event is actually more like a cutoff-low, with a cold-core upper-trough, than a traditional cold-front. The South Atlantic High has been ridiculously persistent since April/May.
Mid-morning Sunday 9th. Surface isobars and rainfall, overlaid with 500hPa trough:
gfs_africa_132_precip_p06[20260809_1200].gif
 
capd said:
Probability of snow this long weekend?

@Gordon_R
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Oh, I had no idea that Mon 10th was a public holiday!? Widespread snow is likely starting on Sun 9th, spreading eastwards on Mon 10th. The chart I posted yesterday (see above) is valid, with recent model runs confirming the broad outlook. I'm not seeing particularly heavy snow in the SW-Cape, nor at particularly low elevations (below 1500m), but this may be our best opportunity this winter (given how dry and mild it has been so far in 2026).
 
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