Rain and storm for Cpt pt 2

shooter_za said:
Got completely soaked on a hike up Diagonal today. We were not expecting that...poor planning. Still 100% worth it.
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The forecast was for something like 0.1mm today, though the orographic rainfall was probably close to 10mm. Model forecasts never get those details right. The wind direction was a bit unusual (mostly W), and hardly a drop fell in Kenilworth. We normally get drenched when the wind is from the NW.
 
Gordon_R said:
Wednesday and Thursday will be warmer (mid 20s), but rain is predicted for Saturday (after a prolonged dry spell). Yo-yo weather, and winter is not quite finished yet.
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If the forecast holds true, seems like the prevailing high pressure system might finally move off.. from Wednesday/Thursday looks like a good few days of low pressure system, followed by a few days of high and then low again after that..

Just a little too late for a bit of top up of the dams unfortunately..
 
Maurice Kitching said:
Had a good soaking here in the Far South.
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Rather odd weather. Most of the rain before midday fell from a high cloud base (upper trough). Low clouds are now moving in, and the temperature has dropped. It feels more like a cold-front, but very little rain is likely.

Edit: The SAWS ship synoptic chart was a bit late updating, but shows a tiny and weak front, with cool onshore winds behind the front:

ship[20260829_0600].gif

An upper trough and potential cutoff-low is likely to form late next week (Thurs 3rd to Sat 5th). Model runs for the last two days have been all over the map (literally). Initially there was potential for heavy rain, cold and snow, but all of those are gradually fading. In either case it will be a few days of unsettled weather for much of the western and southern parts of SA, with low temperatures, and some isolated heavy showers, and lingering for several days.

totp_week1[20260829-0905].gif
 
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Gordon_R said:
Edited:

An upper trough and potential cutoff-low is likely to form late next week (Thurs 3rd to Sat 5th). Model runs for the last two days have been all over the map (literally). Initially there was potential for heavy rain, cold and snow, but all of those are gradually fading. In either case it will be a few days of unsettled weather for much of the western and southern parts of SA, with low temperatures, and some isolated heavy showers, and lingering for several days.

View attachment 1933164
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Recent model runs show a fairly interesting outlook, as the cutoff-low potentially moves quite far inland. Cape Town itself may only get small amounts of rain, but it will be very cold over much of the country:
southafricasnownext3to6days[20260905_0600].jpg
 
Rocco1 said:
potentially another cut off low on Thursday this week if models hold, but will usually change and move more offshore as week progresses.
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Actually the model runs for this event show much the opposite, at least initially. The center of the COL will push so far inland over the dry Northern Cape, where there is insufficient moisture in circulation to produce much precipitation. Only when moisture from the warm Agulhas current is pulled in later in the week, will there be much rain and snow. The only thing that is certain is that the system will evolve, and it will be cold.
 
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