Rain and storm for Cpt pt 2

[Rocco1]

Realistically speaking the rainfall season is over for CT. Unless we get a massive cutoff-low (not this one), the dam levels are done for the year. It's not a crisis yet, that will only develop in 18 months time.

Hydrological year ends 30 Oct, and for what its worth (prob not much) SAWS (or was it UCT CSAG?) is forecasting a slightly wetter Spring due to El Nino. Though to be noted ground is pretty dry and we would have to get significant rains to increase runoff.

 

[Rocco1]

Looks like it will largely miss cape town- more hitting Southern Cape, some Karoo, and Eastern Cape this Thursday.
More interesting is the weekend picture for NW.

Some heavier inland Rainfall on Weekend north of Kimberly, towards Kathu NC, NW and into FS.

 

[Gordon_R]

Regardless of the rain over CT, this is going to be an 'interesting' event, with very cold conditions over most of the country. Outlook for the first 3 days (up to noon on Sat 5th).

 

[Gordon_R]

The latest SAWS ship synoptic chart shows a weak low SW of CT, which is predicted to intensify overnight, then dissipate later on Thurs 3rd, as the South Atlantic High dominates. This chart does not show any of the upper air developments, which distinguish a cutoff-low from a cold-front:

 

[Carl_Johnson]

The latest SAWS ship synoptic chart shows a weak low SW of CT, which is predicted to intensify overnight, then dissipate later on Thurs 3rd, as the South Atlantic High dominates. This chart does not show any of the upper air developments, which distinguish a cutoff-low from a cold-front:
View attachment 1934294

Does this mean it will rain tomorrow?

 

[WAslayer]

Does this mean it will rain tomorrow?

If any area of Cape Town gets rain tomorrow, it's going to be minimal amounts..

 

[Carl_Johnson]

If any area of Cape Town gets rain tomorrow, it's going to be minimal amounts..

Thank you.

 

[Gordon_R]

Does this mean it will rain tomorrow?

The last 3 forecasts for CT on yr.no have been 1mm, then 9mm, then 2mm for Thurs 3rd. So yes it will rain, but the amount is complete guesswork.

 

[Gordon_R]

Seasonal weather review (including winter 2026 drought) and agriculture outlook (in Afrikaans only).

 

[Maurice Kitching]

Coming down nicely in the Far South. Had to carry all the bedding inside.

 

[Devo1]

Coming down nicely in the Far South. Had to carry all the bedding inside.

Why did you sleep outside bro?

 

[Maurice Kitching]

View attachment 1934392

Why did you sleep outside bro?

Not quite that bad. I sleep outside year-round. Never really gets cold next to the sea, so bar a NW over 30kts, it's quite comfortable.

 

[Spats]

Quite windy here by the mountains

 

[Agent_Smith]

Very leaden skies in Durbanville, but only spitting lightly.

 

[Gordon_R]

Was dry in Kenilworth until 11:30am, then wind picked up and we had a 5 min heavy shower around 11:45am.

 

[WAslayer]

A little spittle in Kuils River..

 

[Gordon_R]

The Milnerton webcam gives a classic view of a Black South Easter, as clouds and convective activity move in over Table Mountain:

 

[joshuatree]

The heavy weather only arrived 5 minutes ago in Milnerton.

 

[Gordon_R]

The heavy weather only arrived 5 minutes ago in Milnerton.

Yip, watching on webcam:

 

[Maurice Kitching]

Still raining here. Been about 3 hours, though very light now. Temps dropped markedly. Very nice.