Stock Picks - Darlings and Dogs

How successful have you been in trading your own equities, etfs and funds ?

  • Extremely successful (make a living off my takings)

    Votes: 11 3.0%

  • Beating passive investment returns

    Votes: 157 42.4%

  • About par with normal returns from banks and money markets

    Votes: 66 17.8%

  • Lost a few pennies of spare cash to play with

    Votes: 40 10.8%

  • Should have rather left my money in the bank

    Votes: 36 9.7%

  • Took a knock

    Votes: 27 7.3%

  • Cremated

    Votes: 33 8.9%
  • Total voters
    370
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Saw a tweet that said when the democrats win the midterms, Trump will go full on against Iran, oil will go to $200 a barrel and the markets will drop badly.

DIscuss for 10 marks.....
 
FlashSA said:
Saw a tweet that said when the democrats win the midterms, Trump will go full on against Iran, oil will go to $200 a barrel and the markets will drop badly.

DIscuss for 10 marks.....
Click to expand...
nah, I doubt that, if the dems win, trump is gonna have to explain how he got permission for the war in the 1st place
 
Naspers keeps coming up as the rand hedge in people's portfolios, so I ran the numbers on it.

In the 62 worst weeks for the rand since January 2015 (the rand down 2.6% or more against the dollar in the week), Naspers rose in 31 and fell in 31. Richemont rose in 43, the Top 40 in 24, FirstRand in 15.

The currency gain on the Tencent stake is real, about 3.3% for every 10% the rand weakens if Tencent's price stays put. It usually doesn't. The weeks the rand gets hit are mostly weeks when money leaves emerging markets, and Chinese tech drops in those weeks too. Over the two years to 16 October, Naspers actually fell about 9% for every 10% the rand weakened.

Over a quarter some of the currency gain does come back, so it isn't useless as a hedge. It just isn't reliable in the weeks you'd want it.

Full write up with the charts and method on my site, TradeIntel: https://tradeintel.co.za/articles/n...e=mybroadband&utm_campaign=naspers-rand-hedge

Happy to be argued with. If anyone has a stretch where it properly worked as a hedge, I'd like to see it.
 

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Ecco said:
Help a noob understand this please
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Investors usually think that Naspers protects them from a decline in the Rand because most of its value sits in Tencent (a Chinese tech company). In reality, South Africa's stock market (and the Rand) are often impacted by global market forces, and these same forces impact Chinese companies in a similar way. So when there is a global sell-off of emerging markets, it hits both South Africa and China, meaning Naspers doesn't protect you from these sell-offs.
 
Stiggs said:
Investors usually think that Naspers protects them from a decline in the Rand because most of its value sits in Tencent (a Chinese tech company). In reality, South Africa's stock market (and the Rand) are often impacted by global market forces, and these same forces impact Chinese companies in a similar way. So when there is a global sell-off of emerging markets, it hits both South Africa and China, meaning Naspers doesn't protect you from these sell-offs.
Click to expand...
Thank you for this.

Also what does it mean when you say "Naspers rose in 31 and fell in 31." what is the 31?
 
Ecco said:
Thank you for this.

Also what does it mean when you say "Naspers rose in 31 and fell in 31." what is the 31?
Click to expand...
Those are the number of weeks. Since January 2015 the rand has had 62 weeks where it fell 2.6% or more against the dollar. Naspers went up in 31 of those weeks and down in the other 31, so it's basically a coin toss. For comparison, Richemont rose in 43 of the same 62 weeks.
 
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