So I have reworked my previous calculations to better reflect the actual cost environment at Sanral, and while I have been generous in their margin, I have been fair and based my info on actual disclosures. These calculations take costs into account based on disclosures, but it is clear that these costs are understated by a massive amount, but we will use them nonetheless. I have also included a small side-calculation to show the figures Sanral claim we will be paying, as a comparison:
So, want to know what e-tolls will actually cost you, and what it will take to bring the system down? Here it is:
Scenario 1:
This calculation shows the scenario should e-tolling achieve 100% compliance of all registered Gauteng vehicles:
As can be seen, with 100% compliance, every road user will have to pay in the region of R170 per month for e-tolls. We know that 100% compliance is not possible as there are numerous exemptions, people will refuse to pay, and many will find alternative routes or modes of transport.
Scenario 2:
This calculation assumes a 66% compliance rate, meaning 2 000 000 users actually pay every single month:
In this scenario, all 2 million road users willing to pay will need to pay on average, around R260 per month for e-tolls...
Scenario 3:
This calculation assumes a 33% compliance rate, meaning that 1 000 000 road users will pay every single month. From where I stand, this is a more likely scenario and is perhaps a little on the high side...
In this scenario, all paying road users will be required to pay, on average, around R510 per month in order for Sanral to pay its debt. This is quite clearly not realistic on their part to expect such a ludicrously high monthly payment.
It is quite clear that Sanral require upwards of a 66% compliance rate in order for them to simply trade solvently and to avoid a default on their debt. A default will render all outstanding debt liable at that date, including all interest/coupon components, so they will be hellbent on avoiding this, particularly in light of the fact that government has guaranteed about 60% of this debt.
It is therefore imperative that at least one out of every three people you know boycotts e-toll payments, or delays their payment for as long as legally possible. Personally, I will not be paying.
What is alarming is that if we simply delay our payments for as long as possible, it appears (based on some research that I've done into the bond maturities) that Sanral might in fact survive. Their bond yields will spike and this won't be good for them or government, but they can survive, especially if Treasury decide to donate more money their way, or underwrite any other debt on their behalf.
What is needed is a combination of boycotting the roads, boycotting of the payments on principle (this deal is as corrupt as they get), delaying payments for as long as legally possible, and spreading this information far and wide to as many South Africans as you can...
And now would you like to know why Sanral are so terrified of people not complying? Well take a look at this...
As soon as less than a million people comply on a monthly basis, they will be in financial ruin. The shortfall below that number is substantial as it is, but once we hit below 1 000 000 compliance, it becomes completely unmanageable. We need to make sure, now more than ever, and in the light of their threats and implementation date, that we stand up against this system in unity. Cosatu were right when they said that no issue since the inception of this government has been so widely criticised across all demographics. So don't cave in now in the final stretch. We can show government for once, that they report to US, not the other way around...
So, want to know what e-tolls will actually cost you, and what it will take to bring the system down? Here it is:
Scenario 1:
This calculation shows the scenario should e-tolling achieve 100% compliance of all registered Gauteng vehicles:
As can be seen, with 100% compliance, every road user will have to pay in the region of R170 per month for e-tolls. We know that 100% compliance is not possible as there are numerous exemptions, people will refuse to pay, and many will find alternative routes or modes of transport.
Scenario 2:
This calculation assumes a 66% compliance rate, meaning 2 000 000 users actually pay every single month:
In this scenario, all 2 million road users willing to pay will need to pay on average, around R260 per month for e-tolls...
Scenario 3:
This calculation assumes a 33% compliance rate, meaning that 1 000 000 road users will pay every single month. From where I stand, this is a more likely scenario and is perhaps a little on the high side...
In this scenario, all paying road users will be required to pay, on average, around R510 per month in order for Sanral to pay its debt. This is quite clearly not realistic on their part to expect such a ludicrously high monthly payment.
It is quite clear that Sanral require upwards of a 66% compliance rate in order for them to simply trade solvently and to avoid a default on their debt. A default will render all outstanding debt liable at that date, including all interest/coupon components, so they will be hellbent on avoiding this, particularly in light of the fact that government has guaranteed about 60% of this debt.
It is therefore imperative that at least one out of every three people you know boycotts e-toll payments, or delays their payment for as long as legally possible. Personally, I will not be paying.
What is alarming is that if we simply delay our payments for as long as possible, it appears (based on some research that I've done into the bond maturities) that Sanral might in fact survive. Their bond yields will spike and this won't be good for them or government, but they can survive, especially if Treasury decide to donate more money their way, or underwrite any other debt on their behalf.
What is needed is a combination of boycotting the roads, boycotting of the payments on principle (this deal is as corrupt as they get), delaying payments for as long as legally possible, and spreading this information far and wide to as many South Africans as you can...
And now would you like to know why Sanral are so terrified of people not complying? Well take a look at this...
As soon as less than a million people comply on a monthly basis, they will be in financial ruin. The shortfall below that number is substantial as it is, but once we hit below 1 000 000 compliance, it becomes completely unmanageable. We need to make sure, now more than ever, and in the light of their threats and implementation date, that we stand up against this system in unity. Cosatu were right when they said that no issue since the inception of this government has been so widely criticised across all demographics. So don't cave in now in the final stretch. We can show government for once, that they report to US, not the other way around...
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