ALSI Returns

bchip said:
Heres the link for the Alsi in ZAR versus USD.

So basically it benefits to be in a weak country? :erm:

https://twitter.com/mySharesCoZa/status/652189112552792068/photo/1


There are no taxes, this was a buy and hold
Click to expand...

Again . just no.

weak currency = no, i would rather live in the real world than think i am better off when getting taxed to death, because why?
taxes, 15% div tax, und
your estate is gonna sell if you dont, 15% cgt or is that 20% estate duty, i forget.

What you say about that possible head und shoulders on ze weekly? is gonna be beautiful if it happens.
 
chicken247 said:
weak currency = no, i would rather live in the real world than think i am better off when getting taxed to death, because why?
taxes, 15% div tax, und
your estate is gonna sell if you dont, 15% cgt or is that 20% estate duty, i forget.
Click to expand...

chicken247 said:
Again . just no.
Click to expand...
There was a first no?


I have no idea what your saying....:confused:

I also dont trade chart patterns, especially the H&Shoulders.
Its the least reliable pattern out there.
 
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chicken247 said:
cool. Do you datamine and sell the info?
Click to expand...

I havent yet sold any info, but open to any requests.

As far as h&s, its simple really. Anyone whos watched the charts long enough wouldve seen the flaw though,
you dont need to data mine it. When you backtest a h&s you look at the clear patterns that have happened
and what their result is. But what you miss are those times when something looks like a chart pattern but
then changes the pattern completely. You dont include those in your sample because looking back at the charts
you dont see them anymore, but you were watching them as they developed.

Almost all chart patterns fall for this flaw, so you'll never know what the real results are.
Thats why most discretionary traders who survive long enough abandon chart patterns and simply look at support and resistance.
Patterns arent an edge imo. If you going to trade discretionary, just look at support and resistance.
 
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Example.png

Heres an example, I dont have access to my resources atm, so excuse the crude drawings.
But looking at Pic 1 its clearly a H&S right?

If you look at Pic 2 it turns out the market was just in a box.

Would you include Pic 1 in your sample testing?
You wouldve traded it as a H&S because on a smaller time frame it wouldve looked like one,
but when scrolling through past data you wouldnt even have glanced at it twice
 
bchip said:
View attachment 309004

Heres an example, I dont have access to my resources atm, so excuse the crude drawings.
But looking at Pic 1 its clearly a H&S right?

If you look at Pic 2 it turns out the market was just in a box.
Click to expand...

Yeah. und that is why information is disseminated asymmetrically. When i started my bank made an independent analist report available for my perusal that called a h&s bullish. Hahaha, fun was had by all but me. Clasic prisoners dilemma. 3 weeks ago every news outlent printed the market was crap und how crappy everthing was going to be tomorro...

Looks like everyone und their dog is at the beach tody. Und ze living be easy.
 
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bchip said:
Heres the link for the Alsi in ZAR versus USD.

So basically it benefits to be in a weak country? :erm:

https://twitter.com/mySharesCoZa/status/652189112552792068/photo/1


There are no taxes, this was a buy and hold
Click to expand...

So basically in Dollar terms we have had a CAGR of 4.53% (assuming index at 95 end of 2005 and 148 end of 2015, approximately ten years).

Whereas the S&P 500 had a CAGR of 5.64% over the same period.

Don't think it pays to be in a weak economy as we would have been better off putting it in an index fund in the US.
 
pwstraton said:
Don't think it pays to be in a weak economy as we would have been better off putting it in an index fund in the US.
Click to expand...

The joke relates to the fact that had it been a South African invested in the S&P then
you wouldve gotten the the 5% + Forex gain of 8% (per annum)

So a South African makes 13% on the US market, but a US citizen only makes 5%
So it benefits to be in a weak economy :p

Hooray for the weakening Rand!
 
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chicken247 said:
Do you have any data on the number of people that trade the alsi futures and on how many contracts ( percentage ) the top 5 people control.
Click to expand...

You can see in swordfish what the open interest but youll never know who controls what.
Ive seen that major institutions and pension funds can hold 3000 - 5000 contracts to hedge 1 portfolio
 
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bchip said:
The joke relates to the fact that had it been a South African invested in the S&P then
you wouldve gotten the the 5% + Forex gain of 8% (per annum)

So a South African makes 13% on the US market, but a US citizen only makes 5%
So it benefits to be in a weak economy :p

Hooray for the weakening Rand!
Click to expand...

Doesn't help much when your rand becomes worth less.
 
bchip said:
The joke relates to the fact that had it been a South African invested in the S&P then
you wouldve gotten the the 5% + Forex gain of 8% (per annum)

So a South African makes 13% on the US market, but a US citizen only makes 5%
So it benefits to be in a weak economy :p

Hooray for the weakening Rand!
Click to expand...

Yes I fully agree on the greater percentage return, however that is in Rand terms.

On a global scale you're (possibly?*) losing purchasing power.

Would probably be better to compare gains in real terms after inflation in each country to see which investor would have gained the most wealth.

*Assuming perfect purchase power parity this would actually give a good indication of our expected growth (market determined due to prices being priced in to stocks) vs the US.
 
Firstly, as it seems a few people missed this, Im going to write this a couple of times,
so everyone understands I wasnt being serious.

bchip said:
The joke relates to...
Click to expand...
bchip said:
The joke relates to...
Click to expand...
bchip said:
The joke...
Click to expand...

Now thats been cleared up.

pwstraton said:
On a global scale you're (possibly?*) losing purchasing power.

Would probably be better to compare gains in real terms after inflation in each country to see which investor would have gained the most wealth.
Click to expand...

Its all a juggling act between several things, forex gains/losses do impact our pockets, so does inflation.

Examples
SA is a net importer, so wheat, petrol, etc costs more because of a weakening rand.
If we were net exporters like China, a weakening currency is supposedly a good thing (its debateable).

Singapore, economically very strong, economic growth and strong currency, so their house prices
have gone from $50,000 to $2.5million for the same house over 20 years. Thats what a strong economy does.

Finally you also get deflation which impacts everything. Japan has been going through deflation.
Deflation can improve the strength of a currency, but also has its negative side effects as well.
Inflation a house price will go from R 100,000 to R 1,000,000,
Deflation is the reverse where a house price goes from R 1,000,000 back to R 100,000
before you freak at that thought, think of this as well, costs do the same thing -
Price of cars can get less and less as well.

As you see its not so much one factor, which makes it all difficult.
You need to add inflation + growth + forex impact + ... + .... etc

Its really tough to consider it all, but if you evaluate individual investments and they are only
local based then I agree the best is probably looking at with Growth - Inflation.

And yes on a global basis, you are right, we lose purchasing power.
 
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bchip said:
Firstly, as it seems a few people missed this, Im going to write this a couple of times,
so everyone understands I wasnt being serious.





Now thats been cleared up.



Its all a juggling act between several things, forex gains/losses do impact our pockets, so does inflation.

Examples
SA is a net importer, so wheat, petrol, etc costs more because of a weakening rand.
If we were net exporters like China, a weakening currency is supposedly a good thing (its debateable).

Singapore, economically very strong, economic growth and strong currency, so their house prices
have gone from to million for the same house over 20 years. Thats what a strong economy does.

Finally you also get deflation which impacts everything. Japan has been going through deflation.
Deflation can improve the strength of a currency, but also has its negative side effects as well.
Inflation a house price will go from R 100,000 to R 1,000,000,
Deflation is the reverse where a house price goes from R 1,000,000 back to R 100,000
before you freak at that thought, think of this as well, costs do the same thing -
Price of cars can get less and less as well.

As you see its not so much one factor, which makes it all difficult.
You need to add inflation + growth + forex impact + ... + .... etc

Its really tough to consider it all, but if you evaluate individual investments and they are only
local based then I agree the best is probably looking at with Growth - Inflation.

And yes on a global basis, you are right, we lose purchasing power.
Click to expand...

Sorry, missed the jokes comments - get used to people coming to arbitrary conclusions here regarding things aligned with equities and trading and feel it can be helped on occasion.
 
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