Pricing would be closer to 150-200k for an average sized house to go off grid with battery, not including ancillary costs like cooking with gas (<10k), and solar hot water heating (20-30k)
You'd be looking at 200k loan.
If one looks at car loans, which I'd imagine would be fairly similar due to loan value / asset values, over a 5 year period, you'd be looking at a 4305.93 monthly payment.
Over 10 years, 2687 a month.
Over 20 years, 1964 a month.
Your 1500 figure is too low unfortunately.
The 10 year period is interesting though, as at a fixed 2700 a month, Eskom pricing will likely get more expensive at/around the 5 year period, making it cheaper to go solar in 5-6 years at current pricing due to their yearly increases.
eg
Year 1
1500
Year 2
1500 + 10% increase = 1650
Year 3
1650 + 10% increase = 1815
Year 4
1815 + 10% increase = 1996.5
Year 5
1996.5 + 10% increase = 2196.15 (close but no cigar).
Year 6
2196.15 + 10% increase = 2415.76 (closer but no cigar)
Year 7
2657.33
Year 8
2923.06
Year 9
3215
Year 10
3536.91
A "mere" 10% yearly increase is a very low ballpark figure though.
Muni + Eskom increases have been higher than this year on year, so in real life the break even figures will likely be in the 3-5 year range.
Battery pricing is dropping (30-40% drop year on year for Lithium), Solar panel pricing is roughly the same for the last year or three (dropping, but the rand increases negate that). Inverter prices are dropping year on year as they become more mass market.
I'd guesstimate that in 5 years, a 200k install will cost 150k assuming the rand stays where it is. In all likelihood though, costs will go up, as the rand is on a heavy downward slope.
We're already at Grid Parity for generation (the price where generating your own electricity costs the same or less than getting it from a supplier).
3-5 years time will see us at Grid Parity with Storage. Thats going to be interesting for Eskom / Muni's, as increasing pricing from that point will just drive consumers to go off grid., aka the Death Spiral.
The Death Spiral is so called, as Consumers go off grid, leaving the supplier, which in turn raises costs for the remaining consumers, who then continue to go off grid, which again raises pricing, until you are left with those who can't afford to go offgrid, and those who can't go off grid for logistical reasons. What Eskom should be doing is encouraging generation, and allowing feedback to the grid, as self generation is funded by the consumer, and the excess electricity can be sold by Eskom to their other customers at their huge profit margins. Thats not happening though, and they're putting up as many roadblocks against that as possible (daily charges, other financial rules that make it unfeasible to feed back).
That works for now, as pricing for solar+storage is still more expensive than Eskom, but in 3-5 years time it won't be.
Tick tock goes the clock Eskom, tick tock.
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