An Eskom grid failure is "almost impossible", say experts

mylesillidge

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Low chance of Eskom grid collapse

Various energy experts say a grid collapse in South Africa is unlikely and would require "a set of extraordinary circumstances" to become a reality, the Sunday Times reports.

Coincidentally — and in a surprise turnaround — the South African Special Risk Insurance Association (Sasria) has said its policies would continue to offer grid collapse cover until at least the end of May 2023.
 
At this point in time, I do believe the odds of grid collapse are low. Keep in mind, there was a time when we would have said the odds of 15 years of load shedding was impossible.
 
Low chance of Eskom grid collapse

Various energy experts say a grid collapse in South Africa is unlikely and would require "a set of extraordinary circumstances" to become a reality, the Sunday Times reports.

Coincidentally — and in a surprise turnaround — the South African Special Risk Insurance Association (Sasria) has said its policies would continue to offer grid collapse cover until at least the end of May 2023.

So another 17 days to go. Whoopee-dooo.
 
Low chance of Eskom grid collapse

Various energy experts say a grid collapse in South Africa is unlikely and would require "a set of extraordinary circumstances" to become a reality, the Sunday Times reports.

Coincidentally — and in a surprise turnaround — the South African Special Risk Insurance Association (Sasria) has said its policies would continue to offer grid collapse cover until at least the end of May 2023.

Awesome, can you stop writing articles about it now?
 
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The insurance companies went into full protect mode thanks to these experts and amended their t&c now they do a 180
 
Sure, a cascading catastrophic grid failure is probably unlikely... But if we are only getting 12 hours of power a day, Eskom's grid has already failed in my eyes. I bet if we were on stage 16, Eskom would still say that the grid hasn't failed.
 
@mybroadband What is your goal with these stories? On moment don't worry nothing bad will happen the next bad news brace for 16 stages of load shedding!!11!!
 
@mybroadband What is your goal with these stories? On moment don't worry nothing bad will happen the next bad news brace for 16 stages of load shedding!!11!!
:ROFL:

Remember bad news sells. These "journalists" need all the clicks they can get on these types of articles.
 
I give odds of fifty-fifty of a grid collapse this winter. We don't have any margin at all and our power grid is not going to behave linearly once we go below a certain threshold. The path from stage 1 to stage 8 is much, much longer than stage 8 to 16.
 
I give odds of fifty-fifty of a grid collapse this winter. We don't have any margin at all and our power grid is not going to behave linearly once we go below a certain threshold. The path from stage 1 to stage 8 is much, much longer than stage 8 to 16.
There is a 2.2GW margin maintained by Eskom despite the level of demand/capacity. This exists to cater for a sudden and catastrophic loss of multiple units simultaneously.

If we do indeed have a collapse of the grid it will likely be due to an operating error during switching.
 
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While the grid would technically not have collapsed, we will all still sit in the dark.
 
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