The African National Congress (ANC) plan to remove President Thabo Mbeki from office is carefully crafted to ensure that his departure will not lead to an early election.
Insiders in the party are saying that although it is now imperative for the ANC to get rid of Mbeki, it must be done in a way that will not force the party to go the polls prematurely, as this will throw its planning into disarray.
The plan is to replace Mbeki with parliamentary speaker and ANC chairperson Baleka Mbete, but this will not be done through a parliamentary vote of no-confidence or by impeachment.
Instead, all stops will be pulled out to get Mbeki to step down voluntarily and avoid a public battle. Mbeki indicated to his Cabinet this week that he will not defy the ANC's leadership if they tell him to go.
A senior ANC member confirmed to the Mail & Guardian that Mbeki had told his Cabinet colleagues that he was prepared to step down.
"I think he did that because he believes that no one in the ANC leadership will have the guts to approach him. He is still under the impression that people are afraid of him. But we will send a delegation, which will include ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe, to inform him about the national executive committee's [NEC] decision," the source said.
The NEC is to make a final decision when it meets on Friday. However, it is understood that the committee's core leadership, the national working committee (NWC), decided at a meeting on Monday to recommend Mbeki's removal as president.
It is understood that ANC leaders will engage premiers and Cabinet ministers who might resign in solidarity with Mbeki, asking them to remain in their positions and avoid a full-scale exodus, which could damage the government.
Pressure tactics
After the NEC's decision, the intention is to send a high-ranking delegation to ask Mbeki to do "the honourable thing" by stepping down and avoiding the embarrassment of being ousted by a motion of no-confidence.
The NWC met in Johannesburg on Monday, after last week's damning judgement by Judge Chris Nicholson, which implicated Mbeki in a political conspiracy to thwart ANC president Jacob Zuma's presidential ambitions.
http://www.mg.co.za/article/2008-09-19-anc-plan-to-topple-mbeki
