Asteroids could spark a nuclear war!

[Nanfeishen]

This is a little scary, considering how close it came to almost happening.
Its 5 years old, but i think it may still be a relevant issue.

This summer, as India and Pakistan faced-off over the disputed Kashmir region, US early warning satellites detected an explosion in the Earth's atmosphere with an energy of 12 kilotonnes of explosive.
The detonation, equivalent to the blast that destroyed Hiroshima, fortunately occurred over the Mediterranean Sea.
But according to US Brig Gen Simon Worden, if it had occurred at the same latitude a few hours earlier, the result could have been much worse.
Had the explosion occurred over India or Pakistan, the resulting panic could have sparked a nuclear war, Worden says.
Could have killed millions
Although US scientists quickly determined that a meteor caused the explosion, neither India nor Pakistan have the sophisticated sensors that can tell the difference between a natural near-Earth object impact and a nuclear detonation, Worden says.

In 1996, our satellite sensors detected a burst over Greenland equal to a 100-kiloton yield. Had any of these struck over a populated area, perhaps hundreds of thousands might have perished.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2246449.stm

Eastern Mediterranean Event :
http://www.answers.com/topic/eastern-mediterranean-event
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=8834
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Mediterranean_Event

 

[icyrus]

I would like to believe that no-one with the power to launch a nuclear strike would do so as a knee-jerk reaction without definitive proof of the need to do so. But who knows, people are stupid.

 

[Xarog]

I would like to believe that no-one with the power to launch a nuclear strike would do so as a knee-jerk reaction without definitive proof of the need to do so. But who knows, people are stupid.

Hard to say.

On the one hand, reflexively returning nukes to whoever you thought was responsible for the first strike might be the only chance you actually get to retaliate. Waiting before replying in kind could be disasterous. (Assume that you're in the position of someone who's just received news of such a massive burst without knowing whether or not it was a nuke or an asteroid).

 

[Nanfeishen]

I would like to believe that no-one with the power to launch a nuclear strike would do so as a knee-jerk reaction without definitive proof of the need to do so. But who knows, people are stupid.

I think we all would like to believe that there are sensible rational fingers on those buttons, but in the heat of the moment, and the ensueing panic, i reckon its anybodies guess.

 

[icyrus]

Hard to say.

On the one hand, reflexively returning nukes to whoever you thought was responsible for the first strike might be the only chance you actually get to retaliate. Waiting before replying in kind could be disasterous. (Assume that you're in the position of someone who's just received news of such a massive burst without knowing whether or not it was a nuke or an asteroid).

Yeah, this could also be exasperated by the fact that these countries probably do not have the sort of redundecies that more developed nuclear powers such as the US and Russia have. They might see it as a "use it or lose it" situation.

Still, like I said, I would like to believe that the decision to kill millions of people isn't made in the heat of the moment by a single person.

I think we all would like to believe that there are sensible rational fingers on those buttons, but in the heat of the moment, and the ensueing panic, i reckon its anybodies guess.

This is why (and I could well be wrong) the US requires more than just one person to sign-off on a nuclear strike. Hopefully at least one of them will be able to keep their cool.

 

[Nanfeishen]

This is why (and I could well be wrong) the US requires more than just one person to sign-off on a nuclear strike. Hopefully at least one of them will be able to keep their cool.

called the 2 man rule:
http://www.answers.com/topic/two-man-rule

 

[Nanfeishen]

A very good read on NEO's :
http://www.space-frontier.org/Projects/TheWatch/fullukneotaskforcereport.pdf
NASA's NEO program:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/

 

[Alan]

Well it's just going to get a lot worse if you add Iran and the resulting influx of dodgy "members" it will bring.

 

[The_Unbeliever]

Seems the MAD deterrent doesn't work anymore...

 

[Xarog]

Seems the MAD deterrent doesn't work anymore...

MAD as a deterrant only works until someone pulls the trigger... then it becomes MAD as an effect.

The problem is, in this scenario, it's hard to tell whether or not the trigger has infact been pulled.

 

[Tux]

I would think the difference between a NEO and a nuke blast would be easy to pick up with simple instruments

When a nuke goes of in your vicinity, and even if you dont get an instant tan, the EMP it puts out will fry your electronics if it's not specially "hardened" against it.
Not sure if a meteorite that explodes in the atmosphere would give of such a massive EMP blast, maybe one of the eggheads on the forum would know, but commonsense tells me that even if it did it would have a different "signature" than a nuke's

Or am i on the wrong path here?

 

[bwana]

This is why (and I could well be wrong) the US requires more than just one person to sign-off on a nuclear strike. Hopefully at least one of them will be able to keep their cool.

It is not their job to question why it was issued. The only signing off is whether the order came from the right person - ie the President - and that it is a valid launch order.

It was put in place to prevent someone going off the reservation and launching a nuke on his/her own accord.

 

[icyrus]

I would think the difference between a NEO and a nuke blast would be easy to pick up with simple instruments

When a nuke goes of in your vicinity, and even if you dont get an instant tan, the EMP it puts out will fry your electronics if it's not specially "hardened" against it.
Not sure if a meteorite that explodes in the atmosphere would give of such a massive EMP blast, maybe one of the eggheads on the forum would know, but commonsense tells me that even if it did it would have a different "signature" than a nuke's

Or am i on the wrong path here?

I think the gist of it is that for a country without the sophisticated and distributed network of of monitoring tools that the US & Russia have (e.g Pakistan, India) and the permanent tension between nuclear neighbors could result in an irrational reaction if one of their cities disappears in what appears to be a nuclear strike. Also add into the equation that any disaster of reasonable size is accompanied nearly always by immediate confusion.

It is not their job to question why it was issued. The only signing off is whether the order came from the right person - ie the President - and that it is a valid launch order.

It was put in place to prevent someone going off the reservation and launching a nuke on his/her own accord.

Correct me if I am wrong but is there not also a two-man rule for the issuing of a nuclear attack or could Bush just decide on his own to fire a ICBM? I thought he needed a confirm order from one of the other senior staff if they are still alive, or have I been watching too many movies?

 

[bwana]

Correct me if I am wrong but is there not also a two-man rule for the issuing of a nuclear attack or could Bush just decide on his own to fire a ICBM? I thought he needed a confirm order from one of the other senior staff if they are still alive, or have I been watching too many movies?

Its my thinking that the president has sole command authority. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Football

 

[icyrus]

Its my thinking that the president has sole command authority. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Football

It does seem from that article that he can issue himself without confirmation. Scary thought that.

Thanks for the link.

 

[Nanfeishen]

Re: Nuclear Football from the Wicki article:

the Football does not contain the daily revisions of nuclear launch codes (known as the "Gold Codes"), but rather is a means by which the President can decide upon nuclear attack options.

So it only carries the plans, or strike options available to the Pres.

The Nuclear Football functions as the primary "trigger" on America's nuclear arsenal. According to experts, in the event the president elects to deploy nuclear arms, the commander-in-chief would be taken aside, where the aide would open the briefcase. At that point, the aide and the president would review the attack options and decide upon a particular plan, whether that be a single cruise missile, or a large-scale ICBM launch. Next, using the SATCOM radio, the aide would make contact with the National Military Command Center or, in a post first-strike situation, an airborne command post plane (likely a Boeing E-4B). Before the order is processed by the military, the president must positively identify himself/herself using a special code issued to him/her on a plastic card, nicknamed the "biscuit." Once all the codes have been verified, the military will issue attack orders to the proper units.

Without the codes given to him, from the Military, he is unable to launch anything, but he is the person who pushes the "trigger" to free up the weapons in the various bases/silo's. So the two man rule applies, 1st military, 2nd Pres.
Pakistan claims to use a three man rule, but it can be initiated from lower down the chain of command:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GD06Df04.html

Re: Asteroids and EMP:

Because impacts of Near Earth Objects are of much higher energy than explosions of nuclear weapons, the electromagnetic effects will be correspondingly greater, leading to large scale heating and high intensity electromagnetic disturbances.

http://www.nearearthobjects.co.uk/report/chapter3.htm

He said such an asteroid could cause tidal waves, massive fires, provoke volcanic activity and the "electromagnetic pulse would fry most of the electronics on earth."

http://archives.cnn.com/2002/TECH/space/07/24/asteroid.nt7/index.html

(13) METEOR FIREBALLS AND ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE

In the case of an asteroid entry I would
expect the em radiation strength would be as extreme as from a large nuclear
blast in the atmosphere, with drastic consequences for all but the most
heavily protected electronic equipment.

http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc032301.html

In the case of a nuclear detonation or an asteroid impact, the electromagnetic pulse consists of a continuous frequency spectrum. Most of the energy is distributed throughout the lower frequencies between 3 Hz and 30 kHz.[

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_pulse

By the wording in the wiki article above, it could be asumed that the EMP of both a nuclear and an Asteroid may be extremly close to each other on the frequency spectrum, thereby making it fairly easy to confuse the two, and if it happens over a major city of a nuclear capable country, the initial data would indicate a nuclear strike.

So 1 Asteroid + 1City + Nuclear Capable Country = WW3 way too easy.

 

[icyrus]

Without the codes given to him, from the Military, he is unable to launch anything, but he is the person who pushes the "trigger" to free up the weapons in the various bases/silo's. So the two man rule applies, 1st military, 2nd Pres.

I don't know. I wouldn't really rely on the military to over-rule the president on this one. They are trained to follow commands not question them, especially when they come from the commander-in-chief.

Thanks for the other links. Looks like the US government should increase NASA's funding to search for NEOs.

 

[Nanfeishen]

Thanks for the other links. Looks like the US government should increase NASA's funding to search for NEOs.

My apologies for some of the slightly older links, but there seems to be very little recent news about this subject, and one needs to sift through many articles and pages covering the general topic to find anything of value.

Pretty much most of the work at NASA is done with a budget of about $4Million

The encouraging news is that the most horrendous hazards - asteroids like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs or even smaller objects whose impact could disrupt the global environment - have mostly been identified under a $4 million-a-year survey program. The space agency estimates that there are some 1,100 near-Earth objects whose diameters exceed six-tenths of a mile, big enough to destroy a medium-sized state and kick up enough dust to affect global climate and crop production. The survey has already identified more than 700 of them. None are on a path to collide with Earth.

More troublesome is the threat of smaller asteroids, greater than 460 feet in diameter (about one-seventh the threshold of the really scary big ones), that could devastate a region but not the whole globe. NASA estimates that some 20,000 of these might be potentially hazardous; it has identified only a fraction of them. Two years ago Congress asked NASA to propose new search programs and to analyze ways to divert any asteroids on a collision course with Earth. The agency did that in a March report to Congress, but it balked at the notion of spending up to $1 billion or more to build search instruments or spacecraft.

http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/news_detail.cfm?ID=172

Many of the NEO's are being looked for by amateurs, with pitiful funding:
http://www.skyandtelescope.com/news/3306441.html?c=y&showAll=y

Alarmingly, there is still very little NEO research being conducted in the world right now. A handful of international scientists and engineers are aided by a pioneering and passionate group of amateur enthusiasts -- all of them on shoestring budgets, many having to borrow telescope time

http://www.plutotoday.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=14306

Earth Impact rospects and Effects , good reading, nice article:
http://www.permanent.com/a-impact.htm

Earth Impact Effects Program

an easy-to-use, interactive web site for estimating the regional environmental consequences of an impact on Earth.

http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/

The Watch...An Asteroid Research and Detection Project
http://www.space-frontier.org/PROJECTS/TheWatch/

 

[bwana]

Re: Nuclear Football from the Wicki article:

So it only carries the plans, or strike options available to the Pres.

Without the codes given to him, from the Military, he is unable to launch anything, but he is the person who pushes the "trigger" to free up the weapons in the various bases/silo's. So the two man rule applies, 1st military, 2nd Pres.
Pakistan claims to use a three man rule, but it can be initiated from lower down the chain of command:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GD06Df04.html

The code referred to is the one used to verify the president's identity. The daily launch codes, referred to in the entry as "Gold Codes", are carried by the president - have a look at the trivia section.

 

[Nanfeishen]

The code referred to is the one used to verify the president's identity. The daily launch codes, referred to in the entry as "Gold Codes", are carried by the president - have a look at the trivia section.

But, under contents (of same article) it says:

Contrary to popular belief, the Football does not contain the daily revisions of nuclear launch codes (known as the "Gold Codes"), but rather is a means by which the President can decide upon nuclear attack options.