Betting against ZAR?

[HavocXphere]

I've mentioned this in passing in another thread, but I'm now looking at this more seriously.

i.e. If I think the ZAR will definitely end 2016 substantially lower, how do I put money on this? Obvious answer is move money off-shore, but lets assume that is already done.

I know one can trade FX, but that seems to be mostly short term trader type stuff? I need 12 month range.

I'm looking for something where losses are limited to capital invested ideally so nothing heavily leveraged. Happy to take a gamble here but not an open ended one...

Also, no plans involving ZAR denominated debt...don't won't interest rate exposure either.

Ideas?

 

[Viva]

It's probably just too late for me, but I'm not sure I follow. What more can one possibly do than moving funds offshore (converting to USD) at current prices? Except for trading the currency over shorter intervals in order to maximise your profit, I'm not sure I get what you're asking.

Edit: I see you are in Europe, which explains why your funds are already not in ZAR. FX is the only option I can think of.

BTW, BTC seems to be in free fall (not quite, but the price is falling fast). If you can deal with the volatility, there could be some opportunities there once it has stabilized at a lower price.

 

[HavocXphere]

It's probably just too late for me, but I'm not sure I follow.

You seem to be doing just fine. No good solutions but you understood the issue 100%.

And no, not interested in BTC - looking for a formal financial product without the BTC circus.

 

[cguy]

Forward Currency Contract?

 

[HavocXphere]

Forward Currency Contract?

Seems like that and maybe FX options are my best bet

 

[Oopsie]

If you go short on the ZAR, you will pay a premium in the form of a large spread as Money Makers will shield their own income because the ZAR has been in a decline for a long time. A no brainer?
The ZAR is the most traded exotic currency in the world hence the large move down.

I can write a book on why not to trade FX from years of experience but will narrow it down to the ZAR.
1. The Zumafication of the ZAR has to correct.
2. The ZAR is the most oversold currency and you may have missed the boat.
3. The USD is the most overbought and once again, you may have missed the boat.
4. Commodities cannot decline forever and should a reversal happen soon, we will be back at 13.00 or lower.
5. Gordhan could be a catalyst for the ZAR to gain in his end Feb budget speech.

So I recommend you stay away from FX trading.

 

[Papsak]

I've mentioned this in passing in another thread, but I'm now looking at this more seriously.

i.e. If I think the ZAR will definitely end 2016 substantially lower, how do I put money on this? Obvious answer is move money off-shore, but lets assume that is already done.

I know one can trade FX, but that seems to be mostly short term trader type stuff? I need 12 month range.

I'm looking for something where losses are limited to capital invested ideally so nothing heavily leveraged. Happy to take a gamble here but not an open ended one...

Also, no plans involving ZAR denominated debt...don't won't interest rate exposure either.

Ideas?

Should be able to buy this from your stockbroker - pure $/R

http://etfcib.absa.co.za/Products/ExchangeTradedNotes/Currencies/NewWaveUSDETN/Pages/default.aspx

 

[HavocXphere]

If you go short on the ZAR, you will pay a premium in the form of a large spread as Money Makers will shield their own income because the ZAR has been in a decline for a long time. A no brainer?
The ZAR is the most traded exotic currency in the world hence the large move down.

I can write a book on why not to trade FX from years of experience but will narrow it down to the ZAR.
1. The Zumafication of the ZAR has to correct.
2. The ZAR is the most oversold currency and you may have missed the boat.
3. The USD is the most overbought and once again, you may have missed the boat.
4. Commodities cannot decline forever and should a reversal happen soon, we will be back at 13.00 or lower.
5. Gordhan could be a catalyst for the ZAR to gain in his end Feb budget speech.

So I recommend you stay away from FX trading.

Not planning on trading - or repeat this for that matter. Just want to take a punt on this. Yeah there is a risk that I missed the boat, but the bet is specifically that I haven't missed it (or well all of it anyway). If it backfires then so be it...as long as losses don't exceed capital.

Should be able to buy this from your stockbroker - pure $/R

http://etfcib.absa.co.za/Products/ExchangeTradedNotes/Currencies/NewWaveUSDETN/Pages/default.aspx

That looks good. Thanks