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Question of the Day: If you were buying a TV today, which brand would you choose?
Bitcoin is a false truth, warns analyst
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Not entirely the case. It's quicker than both CC and bank transfer but CC and banking handles way more transactions per second. That's where BTC will see its demise if it ever becomes common.
JerryMungo
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My bad
JerryMungo
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Hey guys
There are some knowledgeable folks here I would like to ask a question. In two years time, including bubble bursts and recoveries, will bitcoin be on average worth more than it is today, around $5000? If you look at its history, it will surely climb. Obviously if you want to double your money in 60 days, might be taking a big chance.
There are some knowledgeable folks here I would like to ask a question. In two years time, including bubble bursts and recoveries, will bitcoin be on average worth more than it is today, around $5000? If you look at its history, it will surely climb. Obviously if you want to double your money in 60 days, might be taking a big chance.
Ockie
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Not 60 days, but my money has almost doubled over 3 months or so. It is now slightly below double since 2 days or so as Ether has taken a bit of a dip, but still prettly close.
Dan C
Honorary Master
Does that mean that you can almost buy a decent car ?
Ockie
Resident Lead Bender
Tsek! I love my car.
And no. I have invested money I can afford, so it is little. But fact remains that it doubled in a short space of time. If I am lucky, perhaps next year I can cash in and get rid of my credit card debt. Will have to see how the dice falls I guess.
Dan C
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MrGray
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Yes, crypto markets (and I think we have to be clear, Bitcoin is a subset of them, though currently the largest) exhibit all the classic signs of a bubble, i.e. parabolic price growth, "this time it's different", etc etc.
But, interestingly, these are the same characteristics as other world-changing technologies going back to the industrial revolution, that in the long term, showed spectacular investment growth as an investment category despite individual companies booming and busting. From the days of the steam engine and first automated manufacturing processes (cotton mills etc) to the advent of the internal combustion engine, wireless telegraph, radio, television, telecommunications, right up to the Dotcom boom, markets for innovations that changed the world have seen astounding growth.
Take Apple Computer - adjusted for share splits, the current share price is 30420% up on it's 1980 listing. Did it spike and crash during that period? Of course, many times. But the long term trend has been phenomenal. Cryptocurrency is no different. There will be exuberance and setbacks, but the ability to make a digital commodity scarce and fungible will inevitably turn out to be the most fundamental change in money the world has ever seen.
As others have said, perhaps Bitcoin is the Nokia of the crypto revolution. But it now represents only 46% of the current $164bn market cap in crypto coins, and this is an ever decreasing percentage. So if you're going to talk about a bubble in cryptocurrency and you think it's only about Bitcoin, you're already hopelessly out of touch.
Could cryptos be in a bubble - probably, yes, a short term bubble given all the hype. Will specifically Bitcoin survive in the long run - frankly I have doubts as there are better, improved, more private, more focused platforms emerging daily. Will cryptocurrency survive? Yes, without a doubt, simply because it is a more elegant, cheaper, faster form of money. It is the new path of least resistance when it comes to storing and transferring value, since it no longer requires printing pieces of paper, or maintaining and synchronising databases centrally in large corporations, or excruciatingly arcane and complicated systems requiring central banks and bonds and monetary policy, etc etc.
If there is one thing that is clear in history, it's that when technology provides a new path of lower resistance, when making a call on a cellphone is easier than installing a fixed line and rotary dialling a number, when sending an email is easier than sending a letter, when streaming a movie is easier than renting a tape at the video store, it will always win out.
So, yeah. We're in the early days. The entire value of money in cryptos is less than one fifth of the value of one company (Apple) and less than 1% of the gold supply. If even a fraction of the money in gold and global derivatives, etc moves into crypto's their market capitalisation will skyrocket. Cryptocurrency is not a flash in the pan novelty, it will ultimately be a fundamental change in global economics. But at the moment it's all speculation and betting on the right horse among thousands of new coin platforms, many of which will fade into obscurity.
And speaking of bubbles, global equity markets have not been at such a high level relative to their country's GDPs since the 2008 crash. So, is there a bubble in cryptos? Probably. Are we near the top? Despite probable short term crashes and adjustments, I don't think we're anywhere near the top. I, for one, would be quite comfortable with some major consolidation and a bit of the hype calming down for a while, though.
But, interestingly, these are the same characteristics as other world-changing technologies going back to the industrial revolution, that in the long term, showed spectacular investment growth as an investment category despite individual companies booming and busting. From the days of the steam engine and first automated manufacturing processes (cotton mills etc) to the advent of the internal combustion engine, wireless telegraph, radio, television, telecommunications, right up to the Dotcom boom, markets for innovations that changed the world have seen astounding growth.
Take Apple Computer - adjusted for share splits, the current share price is 30420% up on it's 1980 listing. Did it spike and crash during that period? Of course, many times. But the long term trend has been phenomenal. Cryptocurrency is no different. There will be exuberance and setbacks, but the ability to make a digital commodity scarce and fungible will inevitably turn out to be the most fundamental change in money the world has ever seen.
As others have said, perhaps Bitcoin is the Nokia of the crypto revolution. But it now represents only 46% of the current $164bn market cap in crypto coins, and this is an ever decreasing percentage. So if you're going to talk about a bubble in cryptocurrency and you think it's only about Bitcoin, you're already hopelessly out of touch.
Could cryptos be in a bubble - probably, yes, a short term bubble given all the hype. Will specifically Bitcoin survive in the long run - frankly I have doubts as there are better, improved, more private, more focused platforms emerging daily. Will cryptocurrency survive? Yes, without a doubt, simply because it is a more elegant, cheaper, faster form of money. It is the new path of least resistance when it comes to storing and transferring value, since it no longer requires printing pieces of paper, or maintaining and synchronising databases centrally in large corporations, or excruciatingly arcane and complicated systems requiring central banks and bonds and monetary policy, etc etc.
If there is one thing that is clear in history, it's that when technology provides a new path of lower resistance, when making a call on a cellphone is easier than installing a fixed line and rotary dialling a number, when sending an email is easier than sending a letter, when streaming a movie is easier than renting a tape at the video store, it will always win out.
So, yeah. We're in the early days. The entire value of money in cryptos is less than one fifth of the value of one company (Apple) and less than 1% of the gold supply. If even a fraction of the money in gold and global derivatives, etc moves into crypto's their market capitalisation will skyrocket. Cryptocurrency is not a flash in the pan novelty, it will ultimately be a fundamental change in global economics. But at the moment it's all speculation and betting on the right horse among thousands of new coin platforms, many of which will fade into obscurity.
And speaking of bubbles, global equity markets have not been at such a high level relative to their country's GDPs since the 2008 crash. So, is there a bubble in cryptos? Probably. Are we near the top? Despite probable short term crashes and adjustments, I don't think we're anywhere near the top. I, for one, would be quite comfortable with some major consolidation and a bit of the hype calming down for a while, though.
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2 years time, $90k at least.
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Well then you should keep buying no matter what the price is. Good luck with that.
That's what I've been doing since $200
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Keep it up until $90,000 hey. Good luck with that.
Nobody can really say. It might be worth more or less. It might crash and recover. It might crash and not recover. You can't look at past performance as it has never performed consistently or rationally. What we can say is that there will be small crashes and probably some major ones as well.
I'll say this again, Bitcoin is not an investment. If you want to speculate on it then fine but know what you're in for and what you want out of it. Keeping it forever is not an option imo as it will become virtually worthless at some point. It's the technology and not what runs on it that's of real value.