Bitcoin Thread 2 Satoshi

Snotface said:
YouTubers are always saying, when we hit extreme fear: buy.
Fear is down to 11.
I'm buying all the way down. I want it back at those sub-$70k levels before it recovers, payday is coming.....
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The problem is sentiment for the average person. Looking at BTC history, there's a chance of another 2-3 year bear market where we might not see $120k again. It happened when the price hit $20k and $60k. Selloffs and then 2-3 years to recover to previous high.
 
Forum Reader said:
The problem is sentiment for the average person. Looking at BTC history, there's a chance of another 2-3 year bear market where we might not see $120k again. It happened when the price hit $20k and $60k. Selloffs and then 2-3 years to recover to previous high.
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The perspective has changed. Retail is out, institutions are in. It takes Whales+ to move the needle now.
The market can't agree whether this is the beginning of a bear market or not. Some are saying today's bounce is a Dead Cat Bounce, Tom Lee is claiming $200k+ by end of January, postponed from end of December.
No one can predict the market, but most of us are in it for the long haul anyway, otherwise we'll have to pay 42% tax on profits vs 18%.
 
Snotface said:
The perspective has changed. Retail is out, institutions are in. It takes Whales+ to move the needle now.
The market can't agree whether this is the beginning of a bear market or not. Some are saying today's bounce is a Dead Cat Bounce, Tom Lee is claiming $200k+ by end of January, postponed from end of December.
No one can predict the market, but most of us are in it for the long haul anyway, otherwise we'll have to pay 42% tax on profits vs 18%.
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I saw some people saying that we will be $150k+ by the end of Jan 2026 when the crash was happening. However with a little googling, it's pretty clear nearly all the people saying these things have vested interests in crypto doing well.

On June 30, 2025, Lee became chairman of the board of directors of BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc.
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Nobody really knows what will happen. In order for BTC to be on the radar, it has do do well sometimes, and also generate a decent long term return for those in it for the long haul (5yrs+ investment time), which it has.

I always think about it this way: What move would screw over the most people and shift funds/capital from retail to whales?

Right now I think spending some time at around $100k for a month and then a slow selloff to the $60k/$70k region would screw over the most people.
 
Forum Reader said:
I saw some people saying that we will be $150k+ by the end of Jan 2026 when the crash was happening. However with a little googling, it's pretty clear nearly all the people saying these things have vested interests in crypto doing well.



Nobody really knows what will happen. In order for BTC to be on the radar, it has do do well sometimes, and also generate a decent long term return for those in it for the long haul (5yrs+ investment time), which it has.

I always think about it this way: What move would screw over the most people and shift funds/capital from retail to whales?

Right now I think spending some time at around $100k for a month and then a slow selloff to the $60k/$70k region would screw over the most people.
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Yep, dwindling returns is a sure-fire way to kill retailers, they are selling while whales are stacking; a 7% or less annual return isn't worth it. This is why one doesn't go into debt to buy crypto.
 
top kek, 7% BTC price dump in the dead of night on a Sunday the day before quantitative tightening ends

obvious market manipulation is obvious

EDIT: at least makes for the ultimate cyber Monday discount 😂
 
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Haha Crypto hit 5 on the fear and greed yesterday, was a great time to buy got some btc and eth not at the lows but decent entries for the long term
 
Turned most of the crypto I work with into USD a little while back, Will wait for the bottom, in no rush.
 
BBSA said:
Will you let us know when the bottom is in?
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I dont know where it will be, but normally when it bottoms, it bottoms out for a while. So Ill just wait for a long period of low stagnant prices and then buy in there. It might not be absolutely bottom bottom, but Ill be buying more crypto than I sold, so not too worried.
 
PCWARITM said:
Any guesses?
Considering it was 17k USD in 2022
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Nothing you should bet your loot on. I aint no super sayan trader or anything like that. I would guess when bitcoin has lost 60%-70% of its value. Here are the historical declines as per chatgpt:

  • ~99% drop in 2011 — After the Mt. Gox exchange hack and panic, Bitcoin briefly lost nearly all of its value in one dramatic crash.
  • ~86% decline (2013–2015) — After a rapid rise above $1,000, Bitcoin slid far lower over many months.
  • ~84% crash (2017–2018) — Following the huge 2017 bubble peak near $19,000, prices fell sharply through 2018.
  • ~77% drawdown (2021–2022) — From late-2021 all-time highs to deep lows in the 2022 crypto winter.
But Im not waiting for a figure. When the price is the same for several months and its a low price that will be my indicator.
 
w1z4rd said:
Nothing you should bet your loot on. I aint no super sayan trader or anything like that. I would guess when bitcoin has lost 60%-70% of its value. Here are the historical declines as per chatgpt:

  • ~99% drop in 2011 — After the Mt. Gox exchange hack and panic, Bitcoin briefly lost nearly all of its value in one dramatic crash.
  • ~86% decline (2013–2015) — After a rapid rise above $1,000, Bitcoin slid far lower over many months.
  • ~84% crash (2017–2018) — Following the huge 2017 bubble peak near $19,000, prices fell sharply through 2018.
  • ~77% drawdown (2021–2022) — From late-2021 all-time highs to deep lows in the 2022 crypto winter.
But Im not waiting for a figure. When the price is the same for several months and its a low price that will be my indicator.
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Come back and bump this thread when you start buying. 🙏
 
We have gone 55% down lads. Also hitting the previous cycle high which bitcoin has always held above the weekly, so if anyone has any money left I'd deploy some now.
 
kneelingheathen said:
We have gone 55% down lads. Also hitting the previous cycle high which bitcoin has always held above the weekly, so if anyone has any money left I'd deploy some now.
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It seems like too safe a bet (the $60k area support) so people are loading up and placing stop losses at around $50k. It hit this area in 2021, 2022 and spent several months around here in 2024. So I suspect it will dip below $50k in the next few months to screw over people who are loading up and placing stop losses or trading with leverage. The 2024 August low will likely be broken, even if just for a short while.

1770459756281.png
 
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Agreed no idea where the bottom will be but with the ETFs and Dat's there is definately less bitcoin for sale so don't think we see anything as low as last cycle. I would DCA evey time we hit extreme fear but would think a bottom would be around $50-60k although I doubt we get that low.
 
In November '21 we cheered when BTC hit R1m; now in '26, we cheer when BTC hit R1m again.
The online crowd is always on about 'lets hope it drops back to $50k so we can get in', but as soon as it starts dropping, they start pooping in their pants. Buy the dip.
 
Forum Reader said:
It seems like too safe a bet (the $60k area support) so people are loading up and placing stop losses at around $50k. It hit this area in 2021, 2022 and spent several months around here in 2024. So I suspect it will dip below $50k in the next few months to screw over people who are loading up and placing stop losses or trading with leverage. The 2024 August low will likely be broken, even if just for a short while.

View attachment 1884498
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It could well..... but with fear and greed at all time lows, other markets topping etc and the size of the asset.....we could either go down all the way to 39k (which everyone seems to be expecting) or they could flush those shorts and pump it beyond 93k in the next few weeks. Difficult to trade......on a dca basis though if you have some spare money it would hurt spot buying some btc.
 
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