Bitcoin Thread - 2018

Superman-7

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If there is one thing that TA teaches us in these strange times, it's that TA experts have as little clue as the rest of us where the market is going :whistling:
 

John Tempus

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If there is one thing that TA teaches us in these strange times, it's that TA experts have as little clue as the rest of us where the market is going :whistling:
Not entirely true nor do you have to be an "TA expert", you just need to be more than 51% correct and when you are correct it needs to be with higher percentage in trading profit than the losing trades.

That said I hate the word "TA expert" but so far my trading plays out as I expect the only things that is not consistent is the flow of long/short divergence that is sometimes longer than expected and other times shorter but in both cases still profitable outcomes. :)
 

Superman-7

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Not entirely true nor do you have to be an "TA expert", you just need to be more than 51% correct and when you are correct it needs to be with higher percentage in trading profit than the losing trades.

That said I hate the word "TA expert" but so far my trading plays out as I expect the only things that is not consistent is the flow of long/short divergence that is sometimes longer than expected and other times shorter but in both cases still profitable outcomes. :)
You can actually be correct way less than half the time. If your profit margins are higher on the wins than the margins on the losses, you still win. But I get what you're saying :)

Right now the market is a 50/50 sort of mess.
 

John Tempus

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You can actually be correct way less than half the time. If your profit margins are higher on the wins than the margins on the losses, you still win. But I get what you're saying :)

Right now the market is a 50/50 sort of mess.
From win/lose perspective its not even as simple as 51% or as you suggested. The first issue is also when and for how much you win. If you start off with $100 and your first trade is a 20% loss then you need to keep winning exponentially more just make up for that first losing trade and get back to breakeven.

As a general rule if you have a 10% loss your next trade need to be at least a 20% win to offset. If you are really sucking at catching the market and you have 3 losing trades of 10% in a row and then 1 winning trade of 30% you would still be down after the 4 trades.
 

SaiyanZ

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Trading this market is like 80% risk management and 20% TA. I look at where the next possible big move can go to but still trade the fibs and certain levels whilst keeping the larger picture in mind. Trading both shorts and longs on two separate accounts at 10x leverage with each trade around about 10% of my balance.

Even though I'm expecting a larger move down I've been trading this region like so. I've gone short twice and closed in profit and then longed twice with profit. Now I'm just waiting for a better area to long and short from.

 

John Tempus

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Trading this market is like 80% risk management and 20% TA. I look at where the next possible big move can go to but still trade the fibs and certain levels whilst keeping the larger picture in mind. Trading both shorts and longs on two separate accounts at 10x leverage with each trade around about 10% of my balance.

Even though I'm expecting a larger move down I've been trading this region like so. I've gone short twice and closed in profit and then longed twice with profit. Now I'm just waiting for a better area to long and short from.

You definitely trade different to me. I notice you dont do full directional swings and sometimes have 2 seperate long positions before closing both at next short I assume from the middle 2 longs in your screenshots.

I never have longs and shorts open at same time nor do I have a new long without having good reason to close the previous long. Looks like you are doing some sort of custom touch-and-go pyramid trading strategy that does not explicitly follow every candle equal buy strategy either.

Given all that you are damn brave to trade on 15min. 15min trading to me is all noise with very little substance to it. I use the 1hr exclusively to decide on my trades but do occasionally have a 6 or 24hr comparison but very rarely.
 

SaiyanZ

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You definitely trade different to me. I notice you dont do full directional swings and sometimes have 2 seperate long positions before closing both at next short I assume from the middle 2 longs in your screenshots.

I never have longs and shorts open at same time nor do I have a new long without having good reason to close the previous long. Looks like you are doing some sort of custom touch-and-go pyramid trading strategy that does not explicitly follow every candle equal buy strategy either.

Given all that you are damn brave to trade on 15min. 15min trading to me is all noise with very little substance to it. I use the 1hr exclusively to decide on my trades but do occasionally have a 6 or 24hr comparison but very rarely.
There are two shorts which were closed and then two longs which were closed. Each was a single trade, closed before reopening again. I never add to a position at the same price. I also look at 1hr etc. Just had the 15min open at the time. I trade mostly on price levels and fibs, sometimes patterns if there is an obvious one. Not so much candlesticks so the time period doesn't matter too much..
 

SaiyanZ

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Just noticed the Luno price has been climbing today. The Rand has been doing its thing again. Glad I don't have to monitor and try to predict the exchange rate anymore when trading:

 

Swa

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Just noticed the Luno price has been climbing today. The Rand has been doing its thing again. Glad I don't have to monitor and try to predict the exchange rate anymore when trading:

The plus side is that with the slow moves Bitcoin has been making lately it's not really necessary to predict. When BTC falls wait for Rand to strengthen and buy then when BTC climbs wait for Rand to fall and sell. Maximum profit. Seems to be happening like clockwork lately.
 

John Tempus

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Even better than that is to not trade on Luno / ZAR market.

If you want to be protected from the imploding ZAR trade on USD market where you get better price and at the same time you are protected from ZAR volatility as you are only exposed to the USD value.

Luno is only useful to get an extra 3-5% in ZAR value on your BTC sales when you need to withdraw your USD into local account. Pretty nice perk.
 

SaiyanZ

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Liquidations both ways and Luno didn't even move a cent. It's times like these I'm glad I don't use Luno anymore.

The chart is all messed up now with these wicks. We'll probably do some sideways again for a few days.

 

Swa

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How could one predict it though? These quick moves are designed to catch people and most probably lost on both sides. Those that bough are still lower than what they were and those that sold are still higher than what they were.
 

SaiyanZ

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How could one predict it though? These quick moves are designed to catch people and most probably lost on both sides. Those that bough are still lower than what they were and those that sold are still higher than what they were.
If you trade with two accounts, one for shorts, one for longs, you can have orders waiting on both for these wicks. It's a gamble but with lowish leverage and only trading with small portion of your balance it's not too risky.
 

phly

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With everyone being bullish ... I am of the humble opinion that we are dumping soon. The charts in my eyes look dumpy, gut feeling says duuuuump! And not a small tiny drop but a major one that will even take previous lows out... anyways i'm anxiously waiting to see what happens. We may have a small push up but then I reckon it will be downhill from there on.
 

abcab

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I also feel we just consolidating at the moment and we have not seen a proper capitulation yet. Really think a mid 2k bitcoin could still be seen. Some are saying we have seen the bottom and we starting our next cycle.

A big dump just means another sale at super discounted prices.
 

steco777

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Crypto Kirby hit the nail on the head bitcoin moves to the beat of the google trends drum watch this video
 

SaiyanZ

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I've closed all my longs and just have shorts open now. Managed to close a long I was holding for a long time at $4035. Think we will fall soon to $3920 at least. There is a chance of a bounce at $3920 but I'm not longing there.

 
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