Bitcoin Thread

[John Tempus]

While I always value your insight in the thread - I have to disagree with you on this, unless I'm misunderstanding what you're saying? But take a look at the Top 20 Crypto's by Market Share (Currently) and check the Yearly change in my screenshot below. It seems that there are Alt's which are far outperforming BTC. It's possible that I'm misunderstanding something that you're referring to though as I'm no expert by any means... Change over the past 3-6months seems to be more accurate for what you are referring to
View attachment 676451

Congrats you are looking at yearly USD change.

Look at the Yearly BTC change, its down on all.

All those coins yearly USD change is thanks to BTC/USD market recovery of over 3x.

If these Altcoins had a yearly change that was decoupled from BTC it would have had a BTC exchange net gain and not net loss so do that same comparison and rather than selecting USD value , select BTC price change value and you will see the altcoins real yearly performance.

Also I was specifically referring to at most top 50 altcoins. The noise pump and dump channels some of those top 200 or top 1000 altcoins seem to create whenever the wind fart in their direction is not backed by sufficient trading volume to even care about it as real numbers aside from the few who might have caught the exact pumps.

Take a look here : https://coincodex.com

At the top set the currency to BTC then in the main list keep the filter on top 50.

Look at top50 massive BTC losses except for BNB and LTC which are notable gainers doing better than BTC since January 1st.

If you consider any of these as actual Altcoins nevermind the fact some of them only launched in 2019 such as LEO then you should see a clear track record that the older more "matured" coins predating 2019 are all consistently losing in the top50 except the following 6 Altcoins which are all complete garbage.

CRO
HOT
MONA
RVN
LINK
LEO

 

[carstensdj]

Congrats you are looking at yearly USD change.

Look at the Yearly BTC change, its down on all.

All those coins yearly USD change is thanks to BTC/USD market recovery of over 3x.

If these Altcoins had a yearly change that was decoupled from BTC it would have had a BTC exchange net gain and not net loss so do that same comparison and rather than selecting USD value , select BTC price change value and you will see the altcoins real yearly performance.

Also I was specifically referring to at most top 50 altcoins. The noise pump and dump channels some of those top 200 or top 1000 altcoins seem to create whenever the wind fart in their direction is not backed by sufficient trading volume to even care about it as real numbers aside from the few who might have caught the exact pumps.

Ah ok, I see... Thanks for clearing that up. Makes a whole lot more sense now. Much appreciated.

 

[John Tempus]

Ah ok, I see... Thanks for clearing that up. Makes a whole lot more sense now. Much appreciated.

Yup BTC recovery is creating a big illusion for many altcoin traders since they see a USD correlated effect on their altcoins thinking its altcoin season.

There is another guy who did a medium post going in depth on BTC market dominance removing a ton of noise which put Market dominance of BTC closer to 85% compared to coinmarketcap only showing about 60% atm considering it lists in their marketcap hundreds of totally useless / non traded altcoins but which still takes a share of the marketcap because of coin total x last price even if its trading volume is as silly as $10 a day.

 

[saor]

Yup BTC recovery is creating a big illusion for many altcoin traders since they see a USD correlated effect on their altcoins thinking its altcoin season.

Ja I also don't understand why people trade ALTCOIN/BTC trading pairs but they track the altcoin value in USD. Most alts have slipped in value against BTC but they look deceptively strong if all you look at is their USD value.

 

[carstensdj]

While I always value your insight in the thread - I have to disagree with you on this, unless I'm misunderstanding what you're saying? But take a look at the Top 20 Crypto's by Market Share (Currently) and check the Yearly change in my screenshot below. It seems that there are Alt's which are far outperforming BTC. It's possible that I'm misunderstanding something that you're referring to though as I'm no expert by any means... Change over the past 3-6months seems to be more accurate for what you are referring to
View attachment 676451

Congrats you are looking at yearly USD change.

Look at the Yearly BTC change, its down on all.

All those coins yearly USD change is thanks to BTC/USD market recovery of over 3x.

If these Altcoins had a yearly change that was decoupled from BTC it would have had a BTC exchange net gain and not net loss so do that same comparison and rather than selecting USD value , select BTC price change value and you will see the altcoins real yearly performance.

Also I was specifically referring to at most top 50 altcoins. The noise pump and dump channels some of those top 200 or top 1000 altcoins seem to create whenever the wind fart in their direction is not backed by sufficient trading volume to even care about it as real numbers aside from the few who might have caught the exact pumps.

Take a look here : https://coincodex.com

At the top set the currency to BTC then in the main list keep the filter on top 50.

Look at top50 massive BTC losses except for BNB and LTC which are notable gainers doing better than BTC since January 1st.

If you consider any of these as actual Altcoins nevermind the fact some of them only launched in 2019 such as LEO then you should see a clear track record that the older more "matured" coins predating 2019 are all consistently losing in the top50 except the following 6 Altcoins which are all complete garbage.

CRO
HOT
MONA
RVN
LINK
LEO

So, with regards to what you said about comparing against BTC instead of USD, here is the chart and you are 100% correct

 

[Swa]

There is already increased interest - Trust me the recent Bitcoin rally has gotten attention of folks out there. And so the fomo is slowly creeping in. People dont wanna get left behind on the road to 20k especially when they read and see that we can go to 100k this time. They see dollar bills and jump in irrespective of its price because the presumption is it will still go up. Libra has also brought alot of attention and it has not even launched yet. They just announced it. Countries going through recession so people are looking at what to hedge in and the continued shift to digital cash and instant payments. A layman in the street may not even know what tether is but i can bet that they have heard of Libra.

Not nearly the level it should be. Volumes are half what they were in 2017 so if we view it in perspective of the bull run and assuming there aren't more sellers then we have already reached the high of $20k. Actually the trading looks a lot like it did in 2018 except the inverse.

Wouldn't or couldn't tether being under pressure meaning people are taking profits and buying back in to other coins ?

No if that was the case it would simply cancel out plus as I pointed out before the crypto market isn't in any recovery but quite the opposite and only appears that way because of BTC's performance. Most altcoins are traded against Bitcoin in any case and not Tether and that's partly what's pushing BTC up. This is pure $/USDT trading and people are cashing out of the market now that BTC has reached $10k. In the long term if the trend continues it means less capital overall and BTC as well as altcoins falling again. The big dip in 2018 was actually preceded by Tether dropping 15%.

 

[Swa]

View attachment 676479

?

 

[Countcrypto]

Not nearly the level it should be. Volumes are half what they were in 2017 so if we view it in perspective of the bull run and assuming there aren't more sellers then we have already reached the high of $20k. Actually the trading looks a lot like it did in 2018 except the inverse.


No if that was the case it would simply cancel out plus as I pointed out before the crypto market isn't in any recovery but quite the opposite and only appears that way because of BTC's performance. Most altcoins are traded against Bitcoin in any case and not Tether and that's partly what's pushing BTC up. This is pure $/USDT trading and people are cashing out of the market now that BTC has reached $10k. In the long term if the trend continues it means less capital overall and BTC as well as altcoins falling again. The big dip in 2018 was actually preceded by Tether dropping 15%.

By other coins I didn't mean to exclude bitcoin. Surely traders sell into tether and other stable coins while they wait for dips to rebuy, rather than fiat?

 

[Swa]

By other coins I didn't mean to exclude bitcoin. Surely traders sell into tether and other stable coins while they wait for dips to rebuy, rather than fiat?

As I said most trading takes place between BTC and altcoins. Only really Bitfinex that trades in Tether and I'm sure you'll find that where there's a choice BTC is the preferred trading pair. You're looking at the wrong part of the equation. It's not altcoin selloff but purely Tether selloff into $ and not cashing into Tether from altcoins. That's indicative of capital leaving the market so whether that capital was invested into altcoins or not is irrelevant. What's of importance is that capital is leaving the market like it has been this whole time while Bitcoin has been climbing. If that continues then there's no increased capital to support BTC and the BTC price hike is mostly due to people cashing out from altcoins into BTC so it's a false indicator and will come crashing down.

 

[Countcrypto]

As I said most trading takes place between BTC and altcoins. Only really Bitfinex that trades in Tether and I'm sure you'll find that where there's a choice BTC is the preferred trading pair. You're looking at the wrong part of the equation. It's not altcoin selloff but purely Tether selloff into $ and not cashing into Tether from altcoins. That's indicative of capital leaving the market so whether that capital was invested into altcoins or not is irrelevant. What's of importance is that capital is leaving the market like it has been this whole time while Bitcoin has been climbing. If that continues then there's no increased capital to support BTC and the BTC price hike is mostly due to people cashing out from altcoins into BTC so it's a false indicator and will come crashing down.

Altcoins are climbing though and so is the market cap, so I don't see evidence of what you are suggesting. Sure altcoins aren't on fire but coins as I mentioned earlier have all done 2 to 3 x during btcs run.

 

[John Tempus]

the BTC price hike is mostly due to people cashing out from altcoins into BTC so it's a false indicator and will come crashing down.

That is as close to the market reality as it gets.

All the dead ICO money that flowed into Altcoins is flowing back into BTC. The crashin down part is speculative but I do agree that if we come close to cross the $20k line at any point would be the real indicator if we will survive a new implosion or if it will just keep going this time with new money entering.

So the real question is when this flow back into BTC is all over and done with the BTC price will be much higher than the previous ATH so I think that would be sufficient to spur on new money to actually enter via FOMO process but we would probably need to break the previous $20k barrier first before any new money will think crypto will make them rich again.

 

[John Tempus]

Altcoins are climbing though and so is the market cap, so I don't see evidence of what you are suggesting. Sure altcoins aren't on fire but coins as I mentioned earlier have all done 2 to 3 x during btcs run.

Wrong, Altcoins are losing value daily. Looking at Altcoin price from USD perspective is false as it is simply riding on the BTC/USD value gains directly and not its own value gains.

Just look at the discussion few posts up it provides enough detail. The top50 coins only 6 altcoins outperformed BTC since January 1st, LTC and BNB being two of them and 4 other rather shitty speculative coins. All the other big boy altcoins have seen overall drop in value compared to if you had the same amount of value in BTC since January 1.

In Fact the overall Altcoin market performance pegged against BTC was doing better on a ratio basis when BTC hit $3200 than it is doing while BTC bullrun is ongoing so if you are into Altcoins for whatever reason you should at this point actually be against a BTC bullrun since it negatively affects the altcoin market.

 

[Countcrypto]

Wrong, Altcoins are losing value daily. Looking at Altcoin price from USD perspective is false as it is simply riding on the BTC/USD value gains directly and not its own value gains.

Just look at the discussion few posts up it provides enough detail. The top50 coins only 6 altcoins outperformed BTC since January 1st, LTC and BNB being two of them and 4 other rather shitty speculative coins. All the other big boy altcoins have seen overall drop in value compared to if you had the same amount of value in BTC since January 1.

In Fact the overall Altcoin market performance pegged against BTC was doing better on a ratio basis when BTC hit $3200 than it is doing while BTC bullrun is ongoing so if you are into Altcoins for whatever reason you should at this point actually be against a BTC bullrun since it negatively affects the altcoin market.

It fiat and market cap terms they are not losing value. I mostly own altcoins and the past few months I have more than doubled my money. I believe in the projects long term so that's neither here nor there for me. Btc rising in price is of course a net benefit to bringing interest and credibility to crypto. Had I been better off selling into bitcoin for more gains short term? In many cases yes, but I am happy with the prices I bought the alts at and I don't think I will be able to buy them back again at that. Rather instead I've used new funds to buy btc. I am a long term investor not a trader.


I don't think any alt is going to challenge btc for what btc does. But there are plenty of other applications for crypto than a currency type store of value.

 

[saor]

It fiat and market cap terms they are not losing value. I mostly own altcoins and the past few months I have more than doubled my money.

If you're trading ALTCOIN/BTC the only metric is it's BTC value compared to when you bought it.

If I buy an ALTCOIN at 500 sats, and next week it's at 250 sats, I've lost 50% of the BTC value of my altcoin. It doesn't matter what the USD value is, because that's just bitcoin doing all the heavy lifting.

 

[Countcrypto]

If you're trading ALTCOIN/BTC the only metric is it's BTC value compared to when you bought it.

If I buy an ALTCOIN at 500 sats, and next week it's at 250 sats, I've lost 50% of the BTC value of my altcoin. It doesn't matter what the USD value is, because that's just bitcoin doing all the heavy lifting.

What if I am only buying btc/ether via luno to put it on binance to buy alts? If I buy x coin for 5000 rand last month and now its worth 10000 rand, I am not crying myself to sleep. I do believe many if the alts will outperform bitcoin in terms of my potential gains and even if that's not true in the short term, time will tell.I am not a trader, I am an enthusiastic spectator.

 

[Swa]

It fiat and market cap terms they are not losing value. I mostly own altcoins and the past few months I have more than doubled my money. I believe in the projects long term so that's neither here nor there for me. Btc rising in price is of course a net benefit to bringing interest and credibility to crypto. Had I been better off selling into bitcoin for more gains short term? In many cases yes, but I am happy with the prices I bought the alts at and I don't think I will be able to buy them back again at that. Rather instead I've used new funds to buy btc. I am a long term investor not a trader.


I don't think any alt is going to challenge btc for what btc does. But there are plenty of other applications for crypto than a currency type store of value.

Only because they are pegged to BTC and BTC has been increasing in value. The way you're viewing it is the same as buying a USD stock in 2007 and now cashing out at 100% gain but in reality it's only the Rand that's been devaluing over that time and the stock did nothing.

 

[Thor]

?

That is where this rally comes from.

The tether printing press.

 

[Countcrypto]

Only because they are pegged to BTC and BTC has been increasing in value. The way you're viewing it is the same as buying a USD stock in 2007 and now cashing out at 100% gain but in reality it's only the Rand that's been devaluing over that time and the stock did nothing.

I have no plans to cash out anytime soon. I consider this a 10 year investment with potential gains far greater in alts than Bitcoin even if it does go to 100k. It's a judgment call and I never put money in I couldn't afford to lose. With that said I do hold some btc and it's doing nicely for me since I bought in at $4200 and again at 6k.

 

[Thor]

That is as close to the market reality as it gets.

All the dead ICO money that flowed into Altcoins is flowing back into BTC. The crashin down part is speculative but I do agree that if we come close to cross the $20k line at any point would be the real indicator if we will survive a new implosion or if it will just keep going this time with new money entering.

So the real question is when this flow back into BTC is all over and done with the BTC price will be much higher than the previous ATH so I think that would be sufficient to spur on new money to actually enter via FOMO process but we would probably need to break the previous $20k barrier first before any new money will think crypto will make them rich again.

No.

 

[saor]

Look at TRON for example.
If I'm trading TRX/BTC, all that matters is the BTC value.

If I bought TRX with BTC on 01 May and sold on 24 June, that was a losing trade. I sold for less BTC than I bought - there's no way to wiggle words to make that look like a winning trade.

Upward orange line = TRON USD value
Downward candles = TRON BTC value



The only reason it's USD value is up, is because it valuation is derived from its current BTC value (I'm trading TRX/BTC, remember). So the same chart with BTC added to see the correlation: