Bitcoin Thread

[saor]

No, only absolute shtcoins got wrecked 95%+ during super bear cycles and DOGE is among those.

Let's not pretend most of crypto is above DOGE (in terms of resistance to price crashes). Almost everything took a hard hit in 2017. Go pick almost anything in the top 100 and it was taking as big a hit as DOGE. I think the point @notayoba was making was that the majority of these markets are driven by pure speculation and nothing else. DOGE is a perfect example of something that should be worth nothing being driven up to absurd prices because that's what these markets are: Speculation machines.

2017...

DOGE:


Cardano:


XLM:


WAVES:

 

[Tabac]

Doge or Btc thread ?

 

[HavocXphere]

one token is more noble than another.

Well not sure about noble, but some certainly have more technical merit than others

I personally don't want to be in a coin where I can't see a long term tangible advantage vs the other 200 shitcoins since then the gains rely purely on timing the hype effect and getting out at the right time. I'd much rather pick something where I can see how it makes sense in 2030 and I never need to sell

The funny thing is, Biometrics got banned from these threads for saying about Bitcoin what the same people who took offence are now trying to tell us about Doge.

Don't think its comparable though. BTC had a tangible advantage - first mover. There was literally nothing comparable.

I personally can't see it for Doge...but nobody needs to justify anything to anyone though. Everyone gets to live with their picks for better or worse.

 

[notayoba]

I think the point @notayoba was making was that the majority ALL of these markets are driven by pure speculation and nothing else. DOGE is a perfect example of something that should be worth nothing being driven up to absurd prices because that's what these markets are: Speculation machines.

FTFY, but basically yes.

Not that there is anything wrong with that. Trade and speculate away, buy and sell whatever tokens you want, it's an exciting time to be alive. But also try and be honest with yourself. Why do these things have value? I've never heard a convincing argument. Nothing they do isn't done better by something else. It's a solution looking for a problem.

 

[saor]

FTFY, but basically yes.

Not that there is anything wrong with that. Trade and speculate away, buy and sell whatever tokens you want, it's an exciting time to be alive. But also try and be honest with yourself. Why do these things have value? I've never heard a convincing argument. Nothing they do isn't done better by something else. It's a solution looking for a problem.

A technology being so tethered to open markets is, imo, one of the stupidest things about crypto. All these projects with utility tokens on their network but the value of those tokens is determined by irrational markets. It's stupid that these projects spend so much time on tokenomics when they could just be focusing on the tech and the service it brings down the line. Instead we have Telegram groups with 20 000 people moaning about the price and projects that don't actually go anywhere partly because of how this whole house of cards is structured.

Crypto is simultaneously so much fun and also so very stupid. The technology needs to be divorced from these markets if it's ever gonna take off. Not that I care if it does - the trading is cool ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

 

[John Tempus]

Let's not pretend most of crypto is above DOGE (in terms of resistance to price crashes). Almost everything took a hard hit in 2017. Go pick almost anything in the top 100 and it was taking as big a hit as DOGE. I think the point @notayoba was making was that the majority of these markets are driven by pure speculation and nothing else. DOGE is a perfect example of something that should be worth nothing being driven up to absurd prices because that's what these markets are: Speculation machines.

2017...

DOGE:
View attachment 1063839

Cardano:
View attachment 1063833

XLM:
View attachment 1063835

WAVES:
View attachment 1063837

Im not pretending about anything. You quoted a bunch of shtcoins. I tried to be modest with my response but if I need to be more direct then anything other than BTC get destroyed beyond recognition when the bear market hit.

 

[saor]

So the exact same as all other cryptos then? Kind of my point.

No, only absolute shtcoins got wrecked 95%+ during super bear cycles and DOGE is among those.

but if I need to be more direct then anything other than BTC get destroyed beyond recognition when the bear market hit.

Lol. That's exactly the point @notayoba was making.

 

[Swa]

Of course, it's gambling and there is a risk aspect to all gambling. Betting on a horse is no different to betting on the movements of crypto currency after all. As said many times, don't gamble with what you can't afford to lose.

This is where people are misunderstanding my point. I never said Doge is better or worse than others as I see all of them as nothing but hot air or even worse. Empty space at least has real value.

My point was about the "noobs". I doubt a lot of noobs besides for Trevor Lee really made a lot of money off it. Most would have gotten in too late or will get out too late. It's mostly those that have been in it for years and know how these things work that made money from it.

No, only absolute shtcoins got wrecked 95%+ during super bear cycles and DOGE is among those.

BTC and a few others saw 50% or less correction. Any coin can pump by random insane % for a long period of time but looking at how coins perform during bear markets makes it extreme obvious which are just there to pump and dump and which exist with some or a lot of utility value.

You made no point at all other than lumping all coins into the same bracket as DOGE which is absurd and hard to take you serious if that is what you really believe.

This is where I differ. BTC lost +85% during the last bear cycle. Let's not pretend that's anything other than a proper dump or bubble burst by calling it a "correction". The big 90-95% ones are still coming. Imo all of these coins are the same with no prospects beyond lala land and it's no use trying to enforce artificial terms like alts to make one seem better than the others. Some are just more predictable than others.

 

[bromster]

Doge is doing to Crypto what Crypto is doing to the conventional financial system.

"It'll never work. It's going to zero"

*Keeps going.

 

[John Tempus]

This is where I differ. BTC lost +85% during the last bear cycle. Let's not pretend that's anything other than a proper dump or bubble burst by calling it a "correction". The big 90-95% ones are still coming. Imo all of these coins are the same with no prospects beyond lala land and it's no use trying to enforce artificial terms like alts to make one seem better than the others. Some are just more predictable than others.

BTC was at the top of a way shorter list of traded coins at the time and lost the least in marketcap %. It retraced from top to bottom 80% while the alts at that time lost more than 95% and some super hyped altcoins even more than 99%.

Of course thats still a horrible result but at the end of the day if you are in crypto you better hope BTC make recoveries after a market dump else these altcoins will see no sunrise.

Each crash cycle BTC is losing less % from the peak than the previous.

In short, each cycle that more altcoins come into existing and a crash occur BTC have sustained the crash better than altcoins and better than the % change from previous crash. This is in part due to altcoins pulling each cycle more out of the BTC cashflow and when a crash occur more money gets put back into BTC to away from altcoins that then softens the crash on BTC.

If that doesn't tell you which coin is more stable long term then I don't know what other evidence to provide.

Until the day comes if/when that happens that we hit a massive crash and BTC suffer more than some other group of altcoins that recently went on a huge pump I simply see no reason to invest long term in anything other than BTC.

For short term money grab scalps then for sure there is hundreds of better short term coins to get involved in.

All coins are definitely still in mostly get rich quick hype cycle but there is no denying that the only coin, love it or hate it, that so far remained the most stable is BTC.

Trying to just get it through to the new FOMO'ers that what they see with DOGE is going to hurt them way more than if someone bought into BTC at 65k and it goes through a crash.

 

[Swa]

I disagree. Sure there are shitcoins that will go into a crash and then never up again. But BTC has had bigger and bigger crashes as time goes on. The biggest was just under 85% protracted from top to bottom. It will go to -90-95% and I believe even 99% in the very long term as it has nothing going for it and is simply hanging on to the first mover sentiment. There are lots of worse in crypto but there isn't anything we can say is better.

 

[saor]

I disagree. Sure there are shitcoins that will go into a crash and then never up again. But BTC has had bigger and bigger crashes as time goes on. The biggest was just under 85% protracted from top to bottom. It will go to -90-95% and I believe even 99% in the very long term as it has nothing going for it and is simply hanging on to the first mover sentiment. There are lots of worse in crypto but there isn't anything we can say is better.

Its a joke that in a class of technological objects, the one with the most value isn't even the most technologically advanced. We're like cavemen valuing two rocks more highly than flint.

Yeah obviously it's a much safer trade that almost anything out there, but it's value is also entirely arbitrary speculative bullshit; its technology slow and dated.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Its a joke that in a class of technological objects, the one with the most value isn't even the most technologically advanced. We're like cavemen valuing two rocks more highly than flint.

Yeah obviously it's a much safer trade that almost anything out there, but it's value is also entirely arbitrary speculative bullshit; its technology slow and dated.

so you reckon the level of the tech should be the major factor in determining price?

... question: how long has oil been in the ground, sounds ancient tech wise yes, surely should be sold for free?

There's much to be said for a simple, digestible, value proposition. From that perspective BTC is leaps and bounds ahead of most (all?) tokens, the mass market actually does not give a flying fahk about your smart contracts and what-not, nor do they have any desire to even attempt to understand it.

It remains a risky and speculative play for sure, but the tech simply does not matter to the vast majority of people out there ... ffs even Doge has pumped, which officially and unashamedly has NO tech or value proposition AT ALL

 

[Swa]

so you reckon the level of the tech should be the major factor in determining price?

... question: how long has oil been in the ground, sounds ancient tech wise yes, surely should be sold for free?

There's much to be said for a simple, digestible, value proposition. From that perspective BTC is leaps and bounds ahead of most (all?) tokens, the mass market actually does not give a flying fahk about your smart contracts and what-not, nor do they have any desire to even attempt to understand it.

It remains a risky and speculative play for sure, but the tech simply does not matter to the vast majority of people out there ... ffs even Doge has pumped, which officially and unashamedly has NO tech or value proposition AT ALL

More like the utility. And if the tech doesn't advance then neither will the utility. That's why the fees keep skyrocketing every time there's a surge in demand.

 

[netcruiser]

More like the utility. And if the tech doesn't advance then neither will the utility. That's why the fees keep skyrocketing every time there's a surge in demand.

The fees are high because the block space is limited on purpose. It is not a "tech advance" to increase the block size. You can literally increase the block size with one line of code in Bitcoin.

 

[saor]

so you reckon the level of the tech should be the major factor in determining price?

... question: how long has oil been in the ground, sounds ancient tech wise yes, surely should be sold for free?

I wasn't making a general statement about how we value assets & resources. I was more just pointing out that for something that is very specifically a product of technology, it seems silly that not even its technological prowess factors into its price determination. It's a bit like a market in which 20 y/o GPU's are 100 x the cost of current gen GPU's.

5 years ago whenever someone asked about bitcoin, it was easy to launch into a talk about blockchain and how cool this tech is & how bitcoin exemplifies that. But now, in 2021, nobody really cares anymore. Because the most valued crypto runs on an old clunky blockchain compared to some newer models, its consensus mechanism is maybe not even the best approach either. There's nothing specific about bitcoin that makes it special.

It's like we're still stuck in the mud with this mentality of arbitrarily making seashells these valuable items; this new tech came along and ooooooh! shiny! And we've just clung to this bitcoin seashell and elevated it's price despite the fact that there are plenty other shinier and more useful seashells.

Look. I don't really care. These markets are fun to trade. But my hackles raise a bit when the value of bitcoin gets preached as resting on any more solid a foundation than seashells. Its stability and high price isn't resting on pack-leading tech or speed, it's resting purely on market volume and arbitrary price speculation.

 

[notayoba]

... question: how long has oil been in the ground, sounds ancient tech wise yes, surely should be sold for free?

The difference is a new oil.2 or oil.3 that does oil's job faster and cheaper isn't discovered and released every week. We're not using oil for nostalgia's sake, until something better comes along, it's what we have.

 

[Superman-7]

View attachment 1063765

This is actually fitting commentary on the broader trading landscape, not just Doge.

Rookie traders have no idea what they're doing and often just by buying and holding, make a lot of money.

Intermediate traders try and apply a toolset of 30+ technical analysis techniques and conclude they should sell TODAY.

Pro traders have refined their approach and have slowly let go of the TA techniques that don't work for them, and use one or two metrics at most to conclude they should just buy and hold

 

[Swa]

The fees are high because the block space is limited on purpose. It is not a "tech advance" to increase the block size. You can literally increase the block size with one line of code in Bitcoin.

You don't get it. Things aren't limited by choice but because the tech is outdated. It's not merely a matter that we can increase the block size if we want to but that even that would not be enough. Blockchain as a tech is outdated and there are far better things out there today. How things are valued however is a matter of sentiment and not on sound principles.

 

[netcruiser]

You don't get it. Things aren't limited by choice but because the tech is outdated. It's not merely a matter that we can increase the block size if we want to but that even that would not be enough. Blockchain as a tech is outdated and there are far better things out there today. How things are valued however is a matter of sentiment and not on sound principles.

Bitcoin Cash did exactly that. They just simply increased the block size and fees are low (and security less). It's not a tech advance.

Tell me what "better things" does permissionless decentralised transfers better than blockchain?