Bitcoin Thread

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Hamster said:
We moved the starting position back I see. Mid march, using this technique I would've drawn a line from December to Feb and predicted massive gains for May.
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Your line was still the trend above which it stayed for a while - we got those massive gains a bit earlier than May then the price fell below that line and failed to get back above it.

hyrt.png
 
saor said:
Your line was still the trend above which it stayed for a while - we got those massive gains a bit earlier than May then the price fell below that line and failed to get back above it.
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So this is like hocus pocus then :p

Well let's hope you are right.
 
Probably due to lack of experience but bitcoin price seems to be behaving oddly. The behavior through April and to 10 May was different from the bearish recent activity. It seems as though big players are working at driving prices down and ar each dip, make big buys. If that’s so, prices still have plenty of room to fall. For me a big question is whether they are HODLers or traders.

Interesting times!
 
Hamster said:
Do these trend lines ever go downwards?
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That's the beauty of TA...they can go in whatever direction you want. I personally favour circles though based on careful studying of wolf of wall street

Mark Hanna: No. Number one rule of Wall Street. Nobody, I don’t care if you’re Warren Buffet or if you’re Jimmy Buffet, nobody knows if a stock is gonna go up, down, sideways or in ****ing circles, least of all stock brokers, right?


Jordan Belfort: Mm-hmm.


Mark Hanna: It’s all a fugazi. Do you know what fugazi is?


Jordan Belfort: Fugazi, it’s a fake…


Mark Hanna: Yeah, fugazi, fogazi. It’s a wazi, it’s a woozi. It’s…fairy dust. It doesn’t exist, it’s never landed, it is no matter, it’s not on the elemental chart. It’s not ****ing real. Right?
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saor said:
Even if it goes down to $20k or whatever from here, we still had a $63k bitcoin which is an incredible rise in price from the last cycle. We've been having it really good.
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Very true. I really don't know enough about macro stuff and how prices are affected. But I sense that a lot of people are still looking for growth and I don't see where else that's easy to find besides in crypto. I also think one of the big differences between this time and 2017 the last is the fact that there are so many very addictive apps. I barely go onto other social media anymore unless it's crypto related. Not saying "but this time it's different". But the some things aren't quite the same.

What reason is there to be bearish right now?
 
HavocXphere said:
That's the beauty of TA...they can go in whatever direction you want.
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Not really. Price is either going up or down for a while, drawing a trendline that goes against the price trend wouldn't be a trendline anymore it would just be a random line. Ja you could draw an opposing price trend at a smaller timeframe (2hrs etc.) but I'm really just concerned with long-term (daily+) price here. Hourly charts aren't really what I'd consider a 'trend'.

trend.png
 
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saor said:
Not really. Price is either going up or down for a while, drawing a trendline that goes against the price trend wouldn't be a trendline anymore it would just be a random line.

View attachment 1077699
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Bear in mind that trend is time based, so within a trend, you can have trends in the opposite direction. Example above is April 0-15 the trend was steeply up, though much shorter trading window. It all depends on your patience and end goal.
 
saor said:
Not really. Price is either going up or down for a while, drawing a trendline that goes against the price trend wouldn't be a trendline anymore it would just be a random line.

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lol yes. Was more of a generic TA rant in the predictive power sense than criticising your historic trendlines.

The irony is that it might actually work. If enough people believe a crypto/stock moves in sync with the lunar calendar then it will do exactly that. And then even as a sceptic it makes sense to look at the lunar calendar as retarded as it is
 
HavocXphere said:
lol yes. Was more of a generic TA rant in the predictive power sense than criticising your historic trendlines.

The irony is that it might actually work. If enough people believe a crypto/stock moves in sync with the lunar calendar then it will do exactly that. And then even as a sceptic it makes sense to look at the lunar calendar as retarded as it is
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95% of TA is usually nonsense, I totally agree. The trendlines were more just pointing out that market cycles exist and anyone moaning that we didn't hit a $100k BTC should rather be celebrating that we hit $63k and if we enter a bearish market for a while - that would be quite normal after all this price action, but if we go up again - that'd be really cool too. I'm not really invested in either direction...just trying to trade in response to the market without doing too many stupid things :p.
 
Just some thoughts.

Think about it, who controls the financial world? Central banks.
How much Bitcoin do central banks own? Pretty well zero from what I understand.

So if there is going to be a Great Reset where will Bitcoin feature if the central banks don't own any? Why would they give it a place at the table if none of them own it.
 
The age old story around TA is that because the majority of TA traders use fairly similar indicators they effectively create the results they are expecting. It doesn't mean the TA doesn't work, it just means because so many people rely on the the same average TA that it moves the market generally in the direction of the average TA used by the majority of traders.

So in a sense TA does work but it is also a product of self fulfilling prophecies yet still that does not mean it doesn't work, quite the opposite.

With that said in this crypto market the liquidity is still very thin, everything is over leveraged and it is a massive playground right now for relatively few whale traders so they can bend and break any reasonable TA whenever they feel like it unfortunately.
 
SoldierMan said:
So if there is going to be a Great Reset where will Bitcoin feature i
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If that happens the world will be so ****ed for a while that I don't even think bitcoin will survive. Some other phoenix will rise from whatever ashes remain.
 
humbledryer said:
Very true. I really don't know enough about macro stuff and how prices are affected. But I sense that a lot of people are still looking for growth and I don't see where else that's easy to find besides in crypto. I also think one of the big differences between this time and 2017 the last is the fact that there are so many very addictive apps. I barely go onto other social media anymore unless it's crypto related. Not saying "but this time it's different". But the some things aren't quite the same.

What reason is there to be bearish right now?
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humbledryer said:
Probably only the short term, but IMO there are a big traders and speculators who are building serious HODLings of bitcoin. They are probably operating on a medium time horizon. Every time they can cause a dip in price they can buy more bitcoin at “wholesale” price. So I won’t be surprised to see it in the 36k USD range before the whales let pent up buyer pressure push it through the roof again.
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