Bitcoin Thread

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Wary GOM said:
Disclaimer: I am not a pro, adviser and without nearly as much experience as some of the guys on here. I have spent a long time playing with indicators, technical analysis, chart arrangement and looking at fundamentals. I have to be ultra cautious since trading has to never impact my overall financial situation. With that, a couple of comments on your questions.

I now am consistently making money, but that doesn't mean that every week I will not have one or two trades on which my stop is triggered and I lose that amount. At worst these mean there might be a week where I just break even. That hasn't always been the case. Early last year I had a run of losses and stopped trading for a couple of weeks to analyse where I had gone wrong. It turned out that there had been a run of days when the market followed a fairly consistent pattern and I based stops on a fixed level (10%). The pattern didn't hold and I was stopped out too soon almost every trade, losing 10% every time. Bummer!

A bit of luck, but not much. Skill - well I don't think that I am skilled. Lots of practice and trying to understand why trades went wrong and why they went right. Losses are far better teachers than wins. It isn't worth agonising over a trade that went wrong, but it is necessary to spend enough time trying to identify what caused you to make a mistake. Demo trading is not particularly realistic because there is nothing like the engagement that I have with live trading. Nonetheless, I do still go onto my demo whenever things are not working and especially, like today, when the market did something that I didn't expect, to just spend time playing without anxiety.

I never try to outplay anyone, not even Mr Market aka many thousands of traders and bots all trying to make money. I especially don't try to outplay the "big money" or the market makers but to trade in their slipstream. Having said this, I do interpret volume versus price movements to see what the professional traders (aka market makers) are doing, viewing them as "wholesalers" who determine when "retail" traders will buy or sell by selling or buying respectively themselves.

Candlestick charts are the primary information for deciding of whether to trade at all and then when to take and leave positions. After intermittently spending time over a couple of years with a friend chasing every indicator there is and playing with statistical analyses from engineering, social sciences, ecology and geology. [I didn't try astrology, tarot cards,or incantations!] My friend now says that using 9 indicators cobbled into some Bayesian analysis he was able to get a 95% success rate. He still hasn't traded money yet - analysis paralysis!. Perhaps because I day trade crypto or forex pairs, technical analysis doesn't work for me. Now I use price and volume which I interpret using Anna Couling's VolumePriceAnalysis (VPA). I also have a chart of the Woodie's CCI indicator on the screen. That is about what my mind can handle and it works for me. The thing is to try and enter and leave the market so as to make a profit.
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Thank you for taking the time to type that all out!
 
OK, can you share some storage knowledge with this grasshopper please?

Q1: If I am not ready to purchase a cold wallet to store my BTC, what is the best software/hot wallet available? I was going to go with Muun but doing my research, I saw a lot of complaints about high transaction charges when people tried to move their BTC out of Muun.

Q2: I could leave it all on LUNO, but after FTX etc, the risk is too great, surely?
 
FlashSA said:
OK, can you share some storage knowledge with this grasshopper please?

Q1: If I am not ready to purchase a cold wallet to store my BTC, what is the best software/hot wallet available? I was going to go with Muun but doing my research, I saw a lot of complaints about high transaction charges when people tried to move their BTC out of Muun.

Q2: I could leave it all on LUNO, but after FTX etc, the risk is too great, surely?
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Its all pref on q2 I personally would happily leave 50-100k on an exchange beyond that onto a wallet. also pls dont shift 1000 at a time but like 10k at a time.

please just ensure 2fa is on
 
FlashSA said:
OK, can you share some storage knowledge with this grasshopper please?

Q1: If I am not ready to purchase a cold wallet to store my BTC, what is the best software/hot wallet available? I was going to go with Muun but doing my research, I saw a lot of complaints about high transaction charges when people tried to move their BTC out of Muun.

Q2: I could leave it all on LUNO, but after FTX etc, the risk is too great, surely?
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If you have absolutely zero plan on selling in the next year or two then sure, move to a private wallet if the fees aren't absurd. But if you're going to trade more actively I'd just leave on exchange.
 
saor said:
If you have absolutely zero plan on selling in the next year or two then sure, move to a private wallet if the fees aren't absurd. But if you're going to trade more actively I'd just leave on exchange.
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I plan to HODL for at least 5-10yrs unless it hits $1mil, then I'll take profits and submit to SARS for CGT.
 
FlashSA said:
OK, can you share some storage knowledge with this grasshopper please?

Q1: If I am not ready to purchase a cold wallet to store my BTC, what is the best software/hot wallet available? I was going to go with Muun but doing my research, I saw a lot of complaints about high transaction charges when people tried to move their BTC out of Muun.

Q2: I could leave it all on LUNO, but after FTX etc, the risk is too great, surely?
Click to expand...
The fees with Muun wallet are a trade-off. You get the best UI and general user experience, especially for newbies to Bitcoin. But you pay little a bit more for lightning transactions.

The fees really are not bad, just not virtually free like lightning ideally should be. I won't go into the technical details but the fees are higher because lightning transactions are routed through their magnetron node, which is quite an expensive routing node, but everything just works well.

Muun wallet supports both Bitcoin Lightning (offchain) and Segwit protocols (onchain) which is still better than Luno or VALR. You plan to hodl anyway, so Muun is fine.
 
Sensorei said:
The fees with Muun wallet are a trade-off. You get the best UI and general user experience, especially for newbies to Bitcoin. But you pay little a bit more for lightning transactions.

The fees really are not bad, just not virtually free like lightning ideally should be. I won't go into the technical details but the fees are higher because lightning transactions are routed through their magnetron node, which is quite an expensive routing node, but everything just works well.

Muun wallet supports both Bitcoin Lightning (offchain) and Segwit protocols (onchain) which is still better than Luno or VALR. You plan to hodl anyway, so Muun is fine.
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Thanks very much for that. I really appreciate the detailed feedback.

A question, possibly dumb, but if Muun closed down and disappeared, I would still be able to recover my BTC as long as I have written down and kept my recovery key stored safely, correct?
 
FlashSA said:
Thanks very much for that. I really appreciate the detailed feedback.

A question, possibly dumb, but if Muun closed down and disappeared, I would still be able to recover my BTC as long as I have written down and kept my recovery key stored safely, correct?
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Bitcoin is decentralised... Nobody can steal your BTC or lose your BTC except you, as long as you safely secure your recovery phrase.
 
Sensorei said:
Bitcoin is decentralised... Nobody can steal your BTC or lose your BTC except you, as long as you safely secure your recovery phrase.
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Yet I lost 1 complete bitcoin (stolen) ... story was posted here.
no phone hack, no PC hack ... various coins in Jaxx wallet, but only BTC taken.
2FA and password was needed before funds could be moved, yet it happened.
 
Dimpie (COMPUTEK) said:
Yet I lost 1 complete bitcoin (stolen) ... story was posted here.
no phone hack, no PC hack ... various coins in Jaxx wallet, but only BTC taken.
2FA and password was needed before funds could be moved, yet it happened.
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Ouch, that really sucks. I'm assuming your Jaxx wallet and 2FA passwords were both accessible from the same phone. So somebody either knew your password to access your Jaxx wallet or knew your recovery seed phrase. Impossible to access your BTC otherwise.
 
Sensorei said:
Ouch, that really sucks. I'm assuming your Jaxx wallet and 2FA passwords were both accessible from the same phone. So somebody either knew your password to access your Jaxx wallet or knew your recovery seed phrase. Impossible to access your BTC otherwise.
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Not even my wife have that info, so NO, no-one had that info but me. Even if I had to give you my phone with an open app and you wanted to move the BTC from X to Z, you have to input a password before it happens and no, you're not gonna guess it right.

The movement of my coins is still on the blockchain about how this person took money from a few places at that same time and how they moved and split/joined then into various other wallets. SAPS(Hawks) back then couldn't help as I think most of them actually had no idea what BTC was and my case hit a dead-end. :mad:

I don't trust the Dev's of these apps anymore !!!
 
Sensorei said:
Ouch, that really sucks. I'm assuming your Jaxx wallet and 2FA passwords were both accessible from the same phone. So somebody either knew your password to access your Jaxx wallet or knew your recovery seed phrase. Impossible to access your BTC otherwise.
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NO
If someone knew that phrase, they would have logged me out and taken ALL coins, not just the BTC :unsure:
 
Dimpie (COMPUTEK) said:
NO
If someone knew that phrase, they would have logged me out and taken ALL coins, not just the BTC :unsure:
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Turns out there was a fake Jaxx wallet app on the Play store. There are plenty of stories like yours on reddit. The hackers edited the original app with malicious code. It looked identical to the real Jaxx app.
 
UB40 said:
Another reason why I do not install crypto based apps on my phone
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Malware & fake apps aside, it's also far too easy to fat-finger press the wrong thing or drop your phone and accidently press the wrong thing etc. I do almost everything on desktop for that reason alone.
 
Sensorei said:
Turns out there was a fake Jaxx wallet app on the Play store. There are plenty of stories like yours on reddit. The hackers edited the original app with malicious code. It looked identical to the real Jaxx app.
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I hear you, ... I used the app for about 4 years before the incident. Could they really keep a fake thing going for that long?

But with everyone that tried to help including the developers, surely they would have picked up if I was on a fake app.
I 100% believe I wasn't ;)
 
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