Blu-ray vs HD DVD: Will Either Win?

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doobiwan

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http://www.tvpredictions.com/whip060207.htm

Blu-ray vs HD DVD: Will Either Win?
By Joseph Whip

Philadelphia (June 2, 2007) -- I note with interest the crowing by Disney and the (Blu-ray Disc Association) about the sales of the Blu-Ray releases of the Pirates of the Caribbean movies vs. the HD-DVD sales of The Matrix.

(Editor's Note: Pirates outsold The Matrix by nearly 4-1 in unit sales, although The Matrix's disc collection was priced much higher. See article.)

I would like to add some analysis as well as opinion to the press releases on this subject. One must look past the numbers quoted to see the real story -- the paltry sales of both formats.

With the PS3 and standalone BD players, the installed base is claimed to be over 1.5 million. It is not known what the HD-DVD install base is but Toshiba has claimed over 100,000 standalones sold plus another 150.000 XBox 360 add-ons.

With that install base, the sale of the Pirates films averaged about 23,500 for each. Hardly anything to crow about. In fact, those numbers are grim anyway you look at them.

It is also unfair to group both of the Pirates movies together and compare that to the two box sets of The Matrix films and make a 4:1 comparison. They need to be compared apples to apples not apples to oranges.

The Matrix sets sold 13.900 vs 23,500 sets of Pirates. If you want to argue that the Pirates movies sold 47,000, then one could argue that the Matrix movies sold 41,700 -- more than a respectable number considering the difference in the numbers of players sold.

Either way, the numbers of discs sold for both are downright embarrassing for BOTH formats. One must wonder why the studios even bother with HD
optical media in light of these sales figures. If one looks further into the sales figures for the other movies release like Flags of our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima, one sees sales about equal for both at less than 6,500 per for both Blu-Ray and HD for Iwo JIma and less than 2,800 for Flags.

The studios would been better off sticking with the standard DVD. Despite the spin put out by Disney, they can't in any way be satisfied with the sales of the Pirates movies on Blu-Ray. On a percentage basis, HD DVD is far outselling Blu-Ray. Should HD-DVD player sales continue to rise, their sales figures will as well.

What is clear at this juncture is that both formats are in their infancy and in real danger of not making it at all. Look at Fox which pulled all their announced releases and have not announced a new date for any of them. The reason could be that fact that the AACS encryption code was cracked. It is also possible that the discs sales were so low that they saw no reason to go to the expense to produce them.

Every time I go into a Best Buy or Circuit City, I see the same large pile of dusty Night at the Museum Blu-Ray releases sitting there. Perhaps that is an omen of things to come, with Blu-Ray and HD-DVD being relegated to the dust bin of history.

Joseph Whip is a HD Observer for TVPredictions.com. If you would like to be a HD Observer, send an e-mail to: [email protected]

The opinions of our HD Observers may not reflect the position of TVPredictions.com.
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I agree . . .
 
Seriously 23 500 units :eek:

That's terrible. I am also starting to wander into the "Tell em both to bugger off" camp.

It just doesn't look like a really good idea in the end. I'll just stay with my DVD's until one of them or a completely new entrant wins.
 
Consider that in light of those Lions Gate numbers . . .

I'd say the market isn't so much talking as screaming like a banshee down someone's ear hole ;)
 
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