China - Taiwan Developments

I see the US has been getting more active in the region, with a build up and show of force in the Philippine Sea.

During December, there were incidents of Chinese Cost Guard ships coming in to contact with Filipino naval assets and this is being treated as China's growing aggressive posturing to countries throughout the region.

Growing US-Philippine Military Alliance Could Save Taiwan​


The US Navy has been publishing photos of active, forward deployed Arleigh Burke-class destroyers operating in the Philippine Sea with MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter Maritime Strike Squadrons, deck-mounted guns and a large arsenal of warship-fired long-range precision weaponry conducting war readiness and preparation drills. The USS Hopper and USS Dewey, both guided missile destroyers, have been conducting various maritime warfare preparation missions near Philippine shores. Perhaps of greatest significance, a greater US presence, which includes more “basing” of forces and assets, is welcomed by Philippine leaders.

While the US Navy has regularly been operating in this critical area as part of its multi-national deterrence posture against China, activity and specific collaboration with the Philippines has been massively increasing. There are many reasons for this, which can likely be linked to aggressive Chinese behavior in the South China Sea and intensified threats to Taiwan. The Chinese Coast Guard, for example, generated an international response with its decision to “water cannon” on a Philippine Navy supply boat. It is also widely known that Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. continues to strengthen US-Philippine cooperation since taking office.
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Additionaly, a USN Carrier Strike Group made port in Manilla last week.

Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group Arrives in the Philippines​


Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), flagship of Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 1, embarked Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 2, Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Princeton (CG 59) and Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Kidd (DDG 100) and USS Sterett (DDG 104) arrived in the Philippines for a scheduled port visit Jan. 5.

This visit marks an additional demonstration of the U.S.-Philippine Alliance, and broader commitment to the Indo-Pacific region. It also serves to fortify relationships with local leaders and communities, reaffirming the seven-decade-old Alliance between the U.S. and the Philippines.

Port calls are part of the U.S. Navy’s routine operations, and CSG-1 is committed to maintaining that tradition to support operational readiness and regional partnerships.
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China drops 'peaceful reunification' reference to Taiwan​


BEIJING, March 5 (Reuters) - China will boost its defence spending by 7.2% this year, fuelling a military budget that has more than doubled under President Xi Jinping's 11 years in office as Beijing hardens its stance on Taiwan, according to official reports on Tuesday.

The increase mirrors the rate presented in last year's budget and again comes in well above the government's economic growth forecast for this year.

China also officially adopted tougher language against Taiwan as it released the budget figures, dropping the mention of "peaceful reunification" in a government report delivered by Premier Li Qiang at the opening of the National People's Congress (NPC), China's rubber-stamp parliament, on Tuesday.
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Related to a potential rise in tension in the reason, I dug up a war game run by the CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies) pertaining to a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan involving the US and allies.

The simulation was ran 24 times and 4 key points were identified in defeating a Chinese invasion:

1. Taiwanese forces must hold the line.
Recommendation: Strengthen Taiwanese ground forces. Because some Chinese forces will always land on the island, Taiwanese ground forces must be able to contain any beachhead and then counterattack forcefully as Chinese logistics weaken. However, the Taiwanese ground forces have severe weaknesses. Therefore, Taiwan must fill its ranks and conduct rigorous, combined arms training. Ground forces must become the center of Taiwan’s defense effort.

2. There is no “Ukraine model” for Taiwan.
Recommendation: In peacetime, the United States and Taiwan must work together to provide Taiwan with the weapons it needs; in wartime, if the United States decides to defend Taiwan, U.S. forces must quickly engage in direct combat. In the Ukraine war, the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have not sent troops directly into combat but have sent massive amounts of equipment and supplies to Ukraine. Russia has been unable to interdict this overland flow. However, the “Ukraine model” cannot be replicated in Taiwan because China can isolate the island for weeks or even months. Taiwan must start the war with everything it needs. Further, delays and half measures by the United States would make the defense harder, increase U.S. casualties, allow China to create a stronger lodgment, and raise the risk of escalation.

3. The United States must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations.
Recommendation: Deepen diplomatic and military ties with Japan. While other allies (e.g., Australia and South Korea) are important in the broader competition with China and may play some role in the defense of Taiwan, Japan is the linchpin. Without the use of U.S. bases in Japan, U.S. fighter/attack aircraft cannot effectively participate in the war.

4. The United States must be able to strike the Chinese fleet rapidly and en masse from outside the Chinese defensive zone.
Recommendation: Increase the arsenal of long-range anti-ship cruise missiles. Bombers capable of launching standoff, anti-ship ordnance offer the fastest way to defeat the invasion with the least amount of U.S. losses. Procuring such missiles and upgrading existing missiles with this anti-ship capability needs to be the top procurement priority.
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The summary of the simulations is that US airpower and their ability (and willingness) to use it will be critical. If the US can use Japanese bases and respond immediately, the Chinese invasion fleet will be destroyed before they have established a strong enough presence on Taiwan. The Chinese amphibious landing capacity points to a maximum of 8,000 soldiers being landed on D-Day, so they have a very small window. If the Taiwanese can hold this and the US responds timeously, China will be in trouble. The simulation indicates that China could initially inflict significant damage on US and Allied air and naval assets attacking the invasion fleet, however, they ultimately lack the aircraft and support fleet to sustain operations and are eventually overwhelmed by US airpower and the US ability to sustain operations (the US military logistics network is one of its ace cards).

One major decision that could make or break a Chinese invasion is their decision to attack Japanese-based US air bases or not. If their invasion of Taiwan includes an early attack on Japanese bases, it immediately escalates the conflict as it triggers the US-Japan defensive pact and both countries will respond. The positive for China where they attack Japan is that they will inflict serious losses on both Japan and the US, limiting their ability to attack the Chinese invasion fleet in the early phase of the war, greatly improving their chances of overwhelming the Taiwanese ground forces.

Other takeaways indicate that the US casualties could exceed Iraq and Afghanistan within 3 weeks and the likely loss of at least 2 carriers, so they will need to be willing to stomach this if they want an independent Taiwan.
 
Harold_Crick said:
Related to a potential rise in tension in the reason, I dug up a war game run by the CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies) pertaining to a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan involving the US and allies.

The simulation was ran 24 times and 4 key points were identified in defeating a Chinese invasion:
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US are not good guys in this either. They are out to protect their own interests. They don't want unity among Asian nations either as that will compromise their interests in the region.

The US is also worried that if China takes Taiwan, it could cause Japan and South Korea to become warmer to China which could impact upon their presence there.

I doubt this will go into war. Xi is a pragmatist and prefers negotiation. He will probably outsmart Trump if he comes in as Biden at least listens to advisors.
 
JuliusSeizure said:
US are not good guys in this either. They are out to protect their own interests. They don't want unity among Asian nations either as that will compromise their interests in the region.
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What would you define as unity among Asian nations?
 
JuliusSeizure said:
US are not good guys in this either. They are out to protect their own interests. They don't want unity among Asian nations either as that will compromise their interests in the region.

The US is also worried that if China takes Taiwan, it could cause Japan and South Korea to become warmer to China which could impact upon their presence there.

I doubt this will go into war. Xi is a pragmatist and prefers negotiation. He will probably outsmart Trump if he comes in as Biden at least listens to advisors.
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The simulation is China being an aggressor. That is it. No talk of who is good and bad.

And anyway, China is p*ssing off half of South-East Asia with their territorial claims. The opposite is happening to countries getting close to China, with the Philippines and even Vietnam warming up to the US over Chinese territorial aggression.

Also, not sure what hypothetical exists where Japan ever cozies up to China. Those two are historical regional rivals.
 
1. What does USA gains from protecting Taiwan? Does Taiwan have anything that USA needs?
2. Taiwan must make the cost too high for China, the same way S.Korea and N.Korea will never reunite. It is not worth it to both sides.
 
rh1 said:
1. What does USA gains from protecting Taiwan? Does Taiwan have anything that USA needs?
2. Taiwan must make the cost too high for China, the same way S.Korea and N.Korea will never reunite. It is not worth it to both sides.
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Taiwan currently holds the keys to the modern world we live in... its that simple. TSMC.
 
rh1 said:
1. What does USA gains from protecting Taiwan? Does Taiwan have anything that USA needs?
2. Taiwan must make the cost too high for China, the same way S.Korea and N.Korea will never reunite. It is not worth it to both sides.
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1. Semiconductors? Apart from that, Taiwan is a part of a ''containment'' ring around China, that includes South Korea, Japan and Australia, along with warming relations with India, the Philippines and Vietnam. All about isolating and counterbalancing Chinese power in the region.

2. Yep, covered in the simulation I linked. Taiwanese ground forces must dig in deep, but they will still need US air and naval support.
 
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rh1 said:
Then China reunification plans make sense. They now recycling old rhetoric, so that they have a legitimate reason to go to war.
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From China's perspective yeah they make sense, they want that technology and leverage.
From the "West"'s perspective it makes sense to try and stop it so that they don't get that leverage and access to the technology.

**EDIT** It is obviously a bit more complicated than that with the Netherlands holding the keys to what TSMC do via ASML, and a variety of other nuances but still in broad strokes its the case.
 
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China has until November to do the invasion. When Trump comes back, they are f***ked.
 
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rvZA said:
China has until November to do the invasion. When Trump comes back, they are f***ked.
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I actually think Trump has the balls to take on China, being a loose cannon and all.

Biden, imho does not know what day it is or when last he took a dump. How can such a man inspire confidence in anyone.

If I was American having to choose between the 2, I would go with Trump all the way.

The fact that this is the best candidates they have is more concerning.
 
The insane people running the USA said if China were to invade and succeed, they would bomb all of Taiwan's chip plants so that China couldn't get their hands on them.
 
BBSA said:
Allowing China to control Taiwan would significantly weaken the position of key US allies like Japan and South Korea. It could damage US credibility, making allies question America's commitment to their defense.
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Tbh, I don't think Japan and South Korea would be much worse off, they'd be pushed into a situation where they have to warm up more to China though which the US absolutely does not want.

China are evil but a part of me also wants them to tell the West to get the hell out.
 
rh1 said:
The fact that this is the best candidates they have is more concerning.
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Agreed, but now one has to decide which one is better for the West and the rest of the world. And, this is definitely not Biden. He already brought the world to the brink of a nuclear WW3. Imagine another Biden term. The world will not survive.
 
rvZA said:
Agreed, but now one has to decide which one is better for the West and the rest of the world. And, this is definitely not Biden. He already brought the world to the brink of a nuclear WW3. Imagine another Biden term. The world will not survive.
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From Xi's perspective, a Trump presidency would be good. Trump is much easier to manipulate if you feed his ego. This was exactly the reason Putin loved him. Putin who he had a useful idiot he could control.

Biden is bad but at least listens to his advisors who knows more about these issues than either he or Trump.
 
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