A thought has previously occurred to me: perhaps we are witnessing the biggest coup yet in South Africa unfold before our eyes.
The ANC is under enormous pressure these next elections - they were falling out of favour with many of their voters. So many people are shouting service delivery and heckling some very bad decision in the ANC, and there are so many clouds hanging over the movement that their very integrity was being questioned. They were obviously losing support if any of the recent opinion polls are anything to go by. The ANC has never been more vulnerable in terms of losing their 2/3rds majority like the last 5 years, and they're obviously worried.
Has COPE given them the diversion they need to avoid confrontation?
COPE seems to be the opposition we so sorely need. They're apparently growing with a huge support base, with hundreds of thousands of former ANC members defecting to their ranks - and tons of undecided and current opposition members promising them their vote as well. The ANC is giving them oodles of publicity by suing them over names and expressing resentment in news papers and public forums and even business meetings. This would all be business as usual in Africa were it not for the fact that this is only the second time in the current regime's tenour that the ANC has even noticed another political party in SA. The first time was the NNP - and we all know how that "partnership" ended. The ANC has for the most part ignored the other political parties in SA - why would they when they rule with 70 + %?
I am hopeful that COPE will form the vital ingredient to a healthy democracy that we've just not been able to acquire till now. I believe that many of the disgruntled citizens shifting to COPE are doing so with genuine concern for democracy in SA. However, the leaders of COPE concern me - the bigger COPE seems to grow, the more it appears that the "leaders" of the ANC pre-Polokwane are now jockeying for position in the new COPE. And this concerns me. Do we really want the failures of last leading us tomorrow? COPE maintains that the constitution of South Africa is their driving force, and that they will endeavour to deliver a better South Africa for all - but isn't this almost verbatim as per ANC speak? COPE - given their by-election results in the Western Cape (10 out of 27 seats vs the ANC's measly 3) have suddenly become a big player (in Municipalities, they're now the biggest political parties in the WC - trouncing the ANC comfortably) - and they haven't even officially launched yet. Given that all this broadbased support is being thrusted into a party that has absolutely no independent track record (the only track record they have is really as ANC members - and that record speaks for its dismal self!), COPE will likely not need to partner with the likes of the DA to sway the ANC majority - it seems they're capable of doing this themselves.
But, will COPE down the line form a partnership with the ANC? If these two parties become the two major players in SA politics, then the answer is obviously yes, given that our government is an inherent mix of parliament seats handed out proportionally to the national election tallies. The ANC doesn't like being in a partnership it doesn't control.
I hope I'm wrong - but my mistrust in the ANC is strong enough to consider that as the members of COPE are a majority "ex" ANC membership - the Mbekites so to speak - I wouldn't be surprised to see COPE and the ANC amlagamate shortly after winning the 2009 elections and annihilating the only genuine official opposition we've had till now. But like I said - I hope I'm wrong.