COPE = Epic fail?

[Serqet]

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=3086&art_id=vn20090411070339492C956098

"COPE, one of the youngest parties to participate, is likely to be the wild card in these elections, with opinion polls putting its support at between two and 20%. At most, it is likely to emerge as the biggest opposition party."

"This is especially true with the emergence of Cope, hailed by many as the only viable opposition party because of its wide support across various race groups."

"Analysts agree that Cope could become the biggest opposition here, unseating the DA, which became the largest opposition party in the legislature after UDM members left for the ANC."

"COPE claims to have a strong presence in the province, and strategists reckon that they could defeat Lucas Mangope's United Christian Democratic Party, which has up to now been the largest opposition party and which is a relic of the former Bantustans.

COPE strategists say their party now offers a viable alternative to the ANC, and is likely to attract UCDP voters."


If you want i can find more?

 

[Serqet]

I also remember 5fm interviewing Lekota on radio and once again made it seem like COPE were going to wipe out the ANC. Granted it was all ahead of the elections so emotions were high.

 

[dappled]

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=3086&art_id=vn20090411070339492C956098

"COPE, one of the youngest parties to participate, is likely to be the wild card in these elections, with opinion polls putting its support at between two and 20%. At most, it is likely to emerge as the biggest opposition party."

"This is especially true with the emergence of Cope, hailed by many as the only viable opposition party because of its wide support across various race groups."

"Analysts agree that Cope could become the biggest opposition here, unseating the DA, which became the largest opposition party in the legislature after UDM members left for the ANC."

"COPE claims to have a strong presence in the province, and strategists reckon that they could defeat Lucas Mangope's United Christian Democratic Party, which has up to now been the largest opposition party and which is a relic of the former Bantustans.

COPE strategists say their party now offers a viable alternative to the ANC, and is likely to attract UCDP voters."

2% - 20% =
1. Ignoring the low-end of the estimate there;
2. Not quite 30% predicted;
3. What "polls" are they referring to. Citing "polls" is hardly credible.

If you want i can find more?

Instead of more, let's try just one?

 

[Serqet]

I don't need to. The mere fact that analysts came out and said that they were the biggest opposition and could even unseat the DA is proof enough imo.

 

[dappled]

I don't need to. The mere fact that analysts came out and said that they were the biggest opposition and could even unseat the DA is proof enough imo.

"Analysts" who looked at "polls".

No offence Serget, but the only thing that this is "proof" of is your inability to decipher credible information from in-credible information.

 

[killadoob]

Can i ask if you some of you know that not all predictions come true, someone predicting something does not mean that will happen without a doubt, that is why it is a prediction.

We all have our views, opinions and predictions, not all of us get it right . nothing to harp on if you ask me and while the votes are stilling being counted dappled you do not know they do not have 30% or is your PREDICTION that they won't get near it?

 

[Serqet]

"Analysts" who looked at "polls".

No offence Serget, but the only thing that this is "proof" of is your inability to decipher credible information from in-credible information.

But the fact remains that articles like this were around at the time. I am not saying i believed it.

 

[Pitbull]

Pitbull do you have a link to anyone credible predicting more than 30% for COPE?

Can i ask if you some of you know that not all predictions come true, someone predicting something does not mean that will happen without a doubt, that is why it is a prediction.

We all have our views, opinions and predictions, not all of us get it right . nothing to harp on if you ask me and while the votes are stilling being counted dappled you do not know they do not have 30% or is your PREDICTION that they won't get near it?

I think the below indicates how deppled viewed this election. He is the one requesting predictions and then shoot them down. I have indicated to him that predictions are just that.... Predictions.

I gave up on him already, you should do the same. Self proclaimed superiority FTL !

Pitbull do you have a link to anyone credible predicting more than 30% for COPE?

Predictions are just that...... Predictions. I never read the predictions and I guess that 90% of SA never did either. The predictions has nothing to do with the hyoe created...

Or am I missing something ?

 

[Serqet]

The article i posted had to do with hype. I thought that was the entire point of this thread? Cope's hype?

 

[milomak]

The press, in its eagerness for anyone but the ANC, built up COPE to be far more than what it was. Even when they were losing by-elections and Markinor polls etc showing around 7% support; the presses inclination was to find ways of showing these up as positives. So in that regard the title of this thread is not totally unfair.

Whether COPE believed the hype or just used it as an electioneering tool is something we may never know.

 

[killadoob]

Well i am not sure if by-elections are accurate or are they milo? I know so many people turned up to vote and nobody would really know without a shadow of a doubt how it was going to go, i am just guessing here.

 

[milomak]

fair enough you can't use them as a conclusive indicator but my guess would be when the ANC was trouncing COPE in areas they contested together barely months before the proper elections it should have been sending some sort of signal?

There were by-elections in the Nelson Mandela Bay metropole? An area that COPE was claiming was a strong representative area for them. the ANC wiped them off the floor. They didn't even win one did they? I would have thought the press would have started to say hold on a minute here.

EDIT: Another thing is that the press was very kind on COPE when it came to issues. they never really interrogated the fact that shilowa and lekota (and of all the others) were a major part of the government that had failed South Africa.

 

[killadoob]

Yea i dunno how accurate it is but judging by the count thus far is seems rather accurate.

 

[dappled]

Pitbull, you're the person who posted this thread and wrote:

COPE was a major disappointment. I honestly thought they will be in the running for second place with the DA.

I asked why you would think that. You replied that the media had said so. I asked for proof. You came up with none.

I think the below indicates how deppled viewed this election. He is the one requesting predictions and then shoot them down. I have indicated to him that predictions are just that.... Predictions.

Now you're talking about predictions just being predictions.... well if you took predictions with a pinch of salt, then why do you see COPE's performance as an "epic fail", "a major disappointment"? They were just predictions, as you now state....

I gave up on him already, you should do the same. Self proclaimed superiority FTL.

Damn, you know what I hate? People who have little knowledge telling people who have a greater knowledge that they "self-proclaim [their] superiority". Rubbish, I did no such thing, that's just YOUR own feelings of inferiority.

 

[killadoob]

Ok now your saying if people predict stuff and are disappointed because their prediction was wrong that it is bad?

I bet on soccer and my prediction was on porto winning big time last night, i was gutted when they lost, your point was again?

 

[dappled]

No Killa, Pitbull came and started a thread saying he was disappointed, that he thought COPE would do better. I asked him to give reasons why he thought that. He said the media had said that. When he couldn't give proof and any reasoned reason why he thought COPE would have got more, he switched tactics and claimed "predictions are just predictions". [If he felt that "predictions" were "just predictions" from the beginning, then he would not have started this thread.]

I've got NOTHING against informed predictions... I was encouraging others to predict (seems almost no one wanted to):

Today, at this stage, I predict:

ANC: 59%
Cope: 9%
DA: 16%
IFP: 6%
UDM: 2%
ID: 2%
FF: 2%
ACDP: 2%

Who else here will have the balls to call it?

 

[Pitbull]

Now you're talking about predictions just being predictions.... well if you took predictions with a pinch of salt, then why do you see COPE's performance as an "epic fail", "a major disappointment"? They were just predictions, as you now state....

Of all the people on MyBB I though you would at least know the difference between personal expectations and predictions Expectations created by the media.

I suggest you start reading the thread from the start again. Once done, think..... breath..... then post

 

[killadoob]

Well judging by the reaction dappled i am glad i never did, geez imagine the uprorar had i got it wrong

 

[dappled]

Ok Pitbull, instead of admitting that you had absolutely no credible basis on which to base your high expectations for COPE's performance, you want to continue your verbal gymnastics by subdividing expectations into "personal expectations" and "predictions".

Which did you have in mind when you say you are disappointed with COPE's performance? The "predictions" (made by 'analysts' looking at 'polls') or your "personal expectations"? I understand the latter to be what you had in mind. So now I ask you again, ON WHAT DID YOU BASE your "personal expectations" that COPE would perform better than they have done? Where is your reason, where is your logic?

 

[dappled]

Well judging by the reaction dappled i am glad i never did, geez imagine the uprorar had i got it wrong

Sorry Killa, my patience for stupidity is short. Even shorter for stupidity that is not aware of it's own stupidity.