Crime and the rand

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LethalChicken

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anybody else see the connection between the safety & security ministers statement of "If you don't like crime, leave" and the fact that the U$ is now @ R7.50? And the news that we get another 0.5% to pay off on the homeloans
 
BlobNow : That is so inacurate, it borders on the crazy. The Rand weakness is due a couple of reason. There are emerging market jitters due to the US economy, resource prices came down hard (but have gained a bit today) and a widening of the trade deficit. (Which the 50 basis point rise also had to do with)

Come on. It really isn't that hard to find this data, and just apply your 2nd year economics.
 
JStrike said:
BlobNow : That is so inacurate, it borders on the crazy. The Rand weakness is due a couple of reason. There are emerging market jitters due to the US economy, resource prices came down hard (but have gained a bit today) and a widening of the trade deficit. (Which the 50 basis point rise also had to do with)

Come on. It really isn't that hard to find this data, and just apply your 2nd year economics.
Click to expand...

Not to mention that the comment was made over a month ago, and the rand has only recently started depreciating.
 
BlobNow It might be worth your while to take some macro economic courses, or maybe read some economic journals in your pass time - because insinuations like that don't add to the credibility of this forum.
 
Well I didn't do economics - but surely - the image and standing of a country in the international community affects the exchange rate(?) I did see something about government bonds taking a downturn, ie, international investors are no longer so sure about the longer term viability (in a climate of crime, incompetence and non-delivery.)

??
 
kilo39 : It is possible for the currency to devalue based on comments by the finance minister or chairman of the reserve bank. Or possibly if the President calls for all foreign owned businesses to be burned. The utterances of the ministers of security, agriculture, etc have basically no impact.

And has been stated, what the minister of S&S said, had no impact whatsoever
 
kilo39 : Incedentaly, how have you not done Ecos? It is basically mandatory for all major courses
 
So anyone guess we reached the end yet or is more to come tomorrow?
Incidently i wanted to do ecos but it always clashed with my engineering classes in 1st semester. 2nd semester there is another one but that one sucks apparently :/
 
krycor : Well, people haven't slowed down on their borrowing at all yet. So there might be further weakness. But it could well be over sold at the moment. What could happen is a bit more of a depreciation and then a correction. But there is no real way to tell at what level it should be at the moment
 
JStrike said:
kilo39 : It is possible for the currency to devalue based on comments by the finance minister or chairman of the reserve bank. Or possibly if the President calls for all foreign owned businesses to be burned. The utterances of the ministers of security, agriculture, etc have basically no impact.

And has been stated, what the minister of S&S said, had no impact whatsoever
Click to expand...
While I understand that trade balances etc can affect the rand - surely - at the end of the day - it is public sentiment on the ground that sets fiscal policy (and the value of the rand.) Positive sentiment = more imports = weaker rand (unless increase in productivity and less inflation) - or unless there is a positive inflow of investment - and from the little I've read - money has been leaving the country and even less gub bonds sold = weaker rand. What do outside investors know/think that we don't? Plus strong commodity prices should equal strong rand - why is it so weak?

My uneducated 2c question.

I think they think our productivity is up the creek based on non-delivery and rampant cronyism so rather move their money elsewhere like the US causes the dollar to rise.

:D
 
JStrike said:
BlobNow : That is so inacurate, it borders on the crazy. The Rand weakness is due a couple of reason. There are emerging market jitters due to the US economy, resource prices came down hard (but have gained a bit today) and a widening of the trade deficit. (Which the 50 basis point rise also had to do with)

Come on. It really isn't that hard to find this data, and just apply your 2nd year economics.
Click to expand...
It's not such a bad theory (in 2nd or 3rd Yr Economics :D ).
Don't forget the markets react quickly, but so do the traders. They've also been asked (begged?) to prop up the rand, which they do. There comes a point when the reserve bank cannot afford to buy Rands any more. Also the dealers need to make money and will 'prompt' the fall, knowing it will rally later. Forex dealers are able to make money at any level, but only when a currency rate actually moves.
 
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